Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[saltraider] 08/9/2021 09:23

@Tiger, I think Zambia can be considered a much more attractive prospect from a political economy standpoint following the outcome of last month's elections ... not least the previous regime's decision to accept peacefully the outcome of the democratic process.

Zambia faces many challenges but -- under political leadership that firmly accepts the rule of law, is committed to good economic management and broadly-based national development, and has a broadly positive stance to business enterprise -- there is room for optimism about its future.

[tigerbythetail] 08/9/2021 08:51

Hi Brucie!
To tell the truth, I've stopped following JLP closely.
It's not just South Africa that is a risk factor over there - Zambia is a far worse jurisdiction (by a distance). Then there are questions about whether the various metallurgical processes involved will work straight out of the box, the financial reporting is delayed and opaque and frankly deceptive, and finally the notorious Colin Bird(!) is still Chairman, and this despite him having sold all his shares (and the CEO having sold his as well). Leon Coetzer is a great salesman, but I'm not buying this breakneck "growth" policy. Not at the current share price, any road.
SLP and THS are both excellent well-run companies with clear financials and which make big profits and pay decent dividends and which are seriously undervalued. I make THS to be better "value" right now, but I have money in both.

[brucie5] 07/9/2021 12:54

All three are on the face of it, undervalued, THS, JLP, THS. THS offers the highest nominal dividend, but SLP likes giveaway specials. JLP is pure growth.

I've been in and out of all three, currently hold some SLP in an income folio. Got out of my earlier holdings on the strong pullback, to see where it came to rest. Tbh, I don't quite understand the weakness but have been around JLP in particular, to know that SA risk will always make a discount, and that's on top of the vagaries of PGM pricing. Good luck, though. Certainly on my radar to become reinvolved.

[martinfrench] 07/9/2021 12:46

same as slp, income and growth !

momentum should never be used in the same sentence as ths :-)

for time being anyway.....will change

[brucie5] 07/9/2021 12:38

martinfrench7 Sep '21 - 12:06 - 941 of 941
0 0 0
out of the most popular uk big 3 pgm stocks, slp, jlp etc, this is the only one wthat hasnt come out of the recent mini slump

opportunity or dead money ? dead money here is a bit of a problem...
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Martin, you're being paid to wait, to the tune of over 6%. Decide what you're here for, momentum, growth or value.

[martinfrench] 07/9/2021 12:06

out of the most popular uk big 3 pgm stocks, slp, jlp etc, this is the only one wthat hasnt come out of the recent mini slump

opportunity or dead money ? dead money here is a bit of a problem....

at these levels of volume its almost not worth them being listed and sometimes it feels like thaey are actually suspended !

i think partial opportunity, on rough observation, ths have had a general 20p differential to slp, so.......time to reinstate that

[sailing john] 06/9/2021 14:35

There have been a few one off larger trades recently 100k+ that always look like buys taking account of prevailing actual buy/sell prices.
eg today 6th Sept 222k at 113p
and 2nd Sept 126k at 113p
plus some others

It looks like somebody is mopping up cheap stock and providing a useful floor
As others have said on here/LSE we need a lot more interest to reach fair value
I suspect we will have to wait until FY results published in late November before Mr M takes note although the early Oct TS will give a good indication

I have an eps of 21p for 2H giving a FY eps of 36p PE 3.1 at 113p which compares favourably with SLP and JLP especially given THS's investment in assets, mine and machinery plus diversification with PGMs + chrome and opportunities outside SA.

[martinfrench] 06/9/2021 10:51

thanks, thought so, they are even more undervalued than first glance today

[tigerbythetail] 06/9/2021 10:42

I'm not in a position to check right now.
But does the $59m match the trade receivables minus trade payables balance? If so, then yes.
Remember, SLP only get paid for the PGMs they produce about four months after they actually deliver them to the smelter / refiner. This is what this balance is reflecting - money earnt but not yet received. It's usually a pretty hefty number.
(THS also operate on the same principle (for now, at least) when it comes to PGM production, so THS's financial position is always better than it looks at first sight as well).

[martinfrench] 06/9/2021 10:36

question for you mr tiger from the liberium note over in slp land.....one i asked over there

With a $106m cash position and $59m of net working capital

is this yet to be paid for pgms from sales due to slp ?

[tigerbythetail] 06/9/2021 10:27

Agree about the volume! Trading has almost stopped in this share...
We should have three pieces of news to come over the next month or so:
1. Q3 production;
2. Vulcan plant completion and ramp-up;
3. Hopefully, DFS for Karo.
Hopefully that will spark some interest. This is so undervalued it's really not very funny.

[martinfrench] 06/9/2021 10:23

very good slp results, though as expected....but outlook was good and raised dividend welcome, anything slp can do tharisa can do and more, but they seriously need to get the volume up, its pathetic

[tigerbythetail] 06/9/2021 08:29

Just to note Sylvania Platinum (SLP) annual results out today.
They are very strong - which is a good omen for Tharisa's own results in 3 months time.

[cb7] 06/9/2021 08:06

GDP growth does not mean the same as prosperity. Sadly much of the GDP growth is driven purely by population increase - the total pie does get bigger but each persons slice does not! This happened here in the UK, where population increase of 6m in a decade drove up headline GDP, but productivity and living standards went nowhere. The headline GDP figures should be kicked into touch and growth per capita should be the focus.

[sotolo] 03/9/2021 21:14

brucie, wonderful for Africa coming out of poverty and post colonialisation, and creating a huge educated middle class, of course not good for the environment if they live half as well as us, but given the vast space a bit unfair to say they can’t when we are all there, unless of course we halve our populations and living standards….. a tough one, but given we aren’t going to change it let’s buy more Tharisa and follow Tiger into African mobiles

[brucie5] 03/9/2021 18:25

Sotolo3 Sep '21 - 18:19 - 930 of 930
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Nigeria alone will have just about as many people as all Europe or the USA, and economic growth rates are the highest in the world - countries like Ethiopia growing far faster than China, so a huge middle class arising; so think just how many ice cars it will gobble up...
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Heaven help us.

[sotolo] 03/9/2021 18:19

I accidentally posted that Africa growth story, that was meant as a reply to Red, on The other board, fascinating that the reply didn’t believe how rapidly growing Africa is, about to overtake China now, and double by 2050 while China shrinks. Nigeria alone will have just about as many people as all Europe or the USA, and economic growth rates are the highest in the world - countries like Ethiopia growing far faster than China, so a huge middle class arising; so think just how many ice cars it will gobble up, so my point is many investors just don’t get this, which is why we are lucky to get in on the cheap, but you are right investors worry about the secular growth of electric, the chromium tax, and the immediate chip problem. As said before Inhope our results and dividend help mitigate this. Have a lovely weekend

[rayrac] 03/9/2021 09:58

Looking at the forex tab, pgm’s seem to be ok. Just that as Martin says…the company name isn’t logical/relevant to what it produces? Certainly doesn’t link to metals in any way.

[tigerbythetail] 03/9/2021 09:28

Hi Sotolo!
Yes, I posted some hopeful articles a couple of months back stating that the car chip crisis would be over by Christmas. I think Covid Delta has put paid to that idea, and that we're in for a long haul out to mid-2022. And as 90% of rhodium production now goes to automotive, a rough 30% decline in car production due to the chip criss equals a 27% reduction in rhodium demand. (Much the same for palladium, as well). Under the circumstances, perhaps the remarkable thing isn't that rhodium prices are down, but that they have held up as well as they have!
Chrome price is currently excellent, and profits will be strongly up on that side of the business. All in all, the market isn't reflecting the current state of the business, let alone the bumper profits of earlier this year. I can only explain the current share price by assuming that the market things PGM prices are about to crash and the South African government are about to impose a chrome export tax (much talked about, but not done yet).
I agree with your points on the other board about Africa, by the way. It's why I hold long term shares in a company like Airtel (AAF). So many people, so much modernisation and development to come.
Like it or not, Redtrend is quite right about ICE vehicles being with us for many years to come. I fear electric vehicles will become the status symbol of home owners in the West, whilst the rest of the world (living in shacks or apartments, with lousy and limited electricity grids) will still rely on petrol and diesel.

[redtrend] 02/9/2021 15:44

What long term secular shift to electric? You can't simply be insular and think only of UK or Europe.

The total number of cars globally is due to increase substantially over the next 20yrs (Africa, India, Asia etc.) With the stronger emissions regulations increasing PGM loadings per car in the catalytic converters.

Even with electric cars increasing as a % of the total, because of expansion of the overall total it will negligible impact on total ICE cars produced and sold, cars which will each have higher PGM loadings. And this is even if you believe the pie in sky government targets on electric cars with complete lack of infrastructure and viable economic lithium and cobalt mining to scale up quickly enough to meet such targets.

[sotolo] 02/9/2021 12:22

Yes Tiger, but investors seem scared off by the chip crisis (Vauxhall said today it would persist into next year), falling PGM prices (down again today), in the long term secular shift to electric, and on the chrome side the promised tax. Hopefully the end of year financials will help, especially if there is a special dividend, but let’s hope the PGM downward trajectory reverses sometime this quarter, or at least next. We are still churning out cash but this looks to be declining a bit and it is often the trajectory that investors look at?

[sotolo] 02/9/2021 12:12

A lot of sells are listed as buys, so it is best to look at the price and see what they really are. Over anything but the very short term sells and buys should more or less balance

[basem1] 02/9/2021 10:16

Filling an order or orders here Cannot be too many sellers left now It has been relentless for the last few weeks

[tigerbythetail] 02/9/2021 09:35

Trading seems to have all but stopped in Tharisa for now.
Which is weird considering that this is a company which should report an annual profit which many FTSE 250 companies won't achieve. But there you have it - when you're out of fashion you're out of fashion.
This is still (by far) my largest position. It's not that I wish the market would "wake up to this company's prospects". I wish it would wake up to its present! The Vulcan plant nearly completed, net debt free, huge revenues and profits and so forth...
(I've also built up a lot of cash as well. I don't trust this current endless melt-up in big US tech stocks and indexes, and IMO there are big social and economic changes underway in China that can spell trouble for markets.)

[martinfrench] 01/9/2021 09:10

just remember aoi ray, and how that is playing out, so many shares are unloved for ages and then get hot, its the way of mkts, and for us a huge opportunity

having said that the board could certainly do more, i would prefer a name change, yes it might be window dressing but think it might help, and then increase the return to shareholders, in this case a share buy back

might not be necessary once vulcan comes on stream and the reiterate the benefits

next results will outline a few things as well....