Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[sotolo] 14/9/2021 07:44

Well we know rh has fallen below my first figure $15000 already, now down to $14000 and falling very fast, at this rate $10000 rh is very soon but will it go all the way back to $2000 and lower? Some poo pood me suggesting it halving when it hit nearly $30k, but it has. At this morning’s level the PGM basket is $2500 so PGM profits have more than halved but I reckon stil getting on for £100k a year which is amazing, tho shame they are falling at getting on for 10% a day. Car outputs are still being cut and we’ll into next year before they turn which could lead to a lot further fall, and a more normal PE, of course our lowly share price predicted this tho a lot here didn’t want to believe how hugely rh was in an unsustainable bubble as many prices went doo lally with reduced Covid production, transport etc. All imho

[plat hunter] 13/9/2021 09:48

I misunderstood, apologies Stolo

[sotolo] 13/9/2021 07:51

Plat My post certainly didn’t say Tharisa doesn’t share the same risks as other miners. Quite the contrary, it is churning off cash but isn’t valued higher just because of worry about the future, while Hoc and Cey are hit by lower profits today. However even with profits way up as we will have, Mining of PM’s and PGM’s is just not very popular with investors today worrying also that prices of both will fall further. Rh is now nearly halved since the spring at $15500 this morning. The THS basket is now below $2700. .As said we are lucky in a way the price didn’t rise further as investors worried it had got far too high, so the fall so far hasn’t been as bad as one would have expected from the metal tumble. Of course chromium is now becoming a bigger part of the mix tho that may be hurt by reduced Chinese demand, a crash when money printing comes home to roost and the proposed new tax. As said it seems THS shares all the future worries of other miners from investors. The question Inhave been asking since spring is how far rh will fall $15k, $10k, back to where it was $2k? Toyota has said production will stay down many more months, Daimler and BMW say the will keep production lower; then we will have reducing ICE in developed countries, but increasing demand in Africa and the third world with increasingly stringent pollution regulation. Hence imho low PEs in sector, which are usually seen at the top of the PGM cycle

[plat hunter] 12/9/2021 13:34

To add to that, the only way a third party processor can limit their exposure to mining related production risk, is to diversify with multiple sites. Again much in the same way an actual miner will benefit from a multi mine and jurisdiction strategy.

[plat hunter] 12/9/2021 13:30

Stolo. You can't say THS doesn't share the same risks as conventional miners, that I'm afraid is a forum board invented fact.THS and other metal processing outfits, process 'Run of Mine Material' if the miner processes less ore, or a lower grade then i'm afraid it directly affects the throughput and grade recovery of the 2nd stream processor.

[sotolo] 10/9/2021 12:46

Yes but who would have predicted their output falling and costs going up quite so much reducing profit even with gold at $1800, dangerous things miners. Cey says IF ALL GOES TO PLAN they will recover production in a couple of years. Hoc says it will plough a chunk of profit into rare earths that will yield big profits in 2030’s IF rare earth prices stay high, Chile doesn’t tax it all away, they don’t have mining setbacks and of course no outliers like covid. Miners costs to replace depleted resources, find new revenue streams and dig it out seem to rise just as fast as the gold price meaning little share price gain over the longer term for most. So these two are both hit as jam tomorrow is a bit dangerous, while THS with so much jam today is hit by worries about jam tomorrow.

[tigerbythetail] 10/9/2021 11:45

The chip shortage is tricky to predict - every article I read gives a different answer. And its relationship with rhodium and palladium prices isn't a straight correlation, either.
If you're a carmaker, and you expect the chip shortage to ease, then I think you would buy stocks of Rh and Pd well in advance of the actual easing. IMO, it's about the direction of travel as much as it is about quantities of cars actually being made.
Let's hope the world isn't entering a stagflationary episode. And that China doesn't slow down too much. And so on.
If you look at the long term share graph, 110p is only an "average" price for THS. And the company is much improved over the last few years (own mining fleet, Vulcan plant all but complete, debts wiped out, production increased etc.).
All told, investment in stocks feels like a defensive battle right now. I'm just trying to make sure I don't lose, really! Who could believe Centamin at 92p and HOC at 158p with gold at $1,800/oz???

[sotolo] 10/9/2021 10:58

Sorry our PGM basket is down $1500 TO $2750 (from near $4250) with aircraft $1000 you suggest that is PGM profit down from $3250 to $1750 so near halved.
Car makers now say chip shortage should last well into next year, and my understanding is chrome is just turning down. We will still of course make very decent profits at current prices, the question is how much further they fall affecting our share price before turning back up.
Incidentally the LSE board is totally dead, mimicking the almost total lack of interest and trading activity in THS.

[tigerbythetail] 10/9/2021 09:42

Chrome price is very good at the moment, I think. Around $180/t was the last I heard.
I know it doesn't make up fully for the loss of PGM profits (thanks to the falling basket price), but THS should be making very good money on chrome at this price, even with increased transport costs.
p.s. I think you mean PGM basket price down to $2,750/oz, from a high of just over $4,000 (quoted from memory). Approx. AISC for PGMs around $1,000/oz to $1,100/oz (hard to calculate exactly as THS is a bi-product miner).
Hopefully, the automotive chip shortage will improve from here. I certainly never thought it could be this severe or last this long!

[sotolo] 10/9/2021 09:34

Our basket is down $1500 from $2750, which halves our PGM profits. Luckily investors expecting this never bid up our share price as much as the PGM rise warranted, you see just how little they trade it, and so it has fallen less than it should. However the chip shortage and lower motor production could last a while yet plus with China faltering chromium could also turn back, so from here we may track falling prices slightly more. Or maybe investors will begin to look for the mid turn PGM turn up before the longer term fall? However the market seems relatively rational on this to me and many stay away, and the few who buy demand a huge risk premium, with PGM and chrome tax worries

[martinfrench] 09/9/2021 10:07

from my observation of ths over the same time period i was trading SLP, ths was mostly like this, then moved up 40p in about 2 weeks (maybe less)

with so many private investors looking for good quality stocks just have no idea how this escapes....maybe their pr team and broker need to seriously mkt this

but, as we know, things change and there will be a time where people cant get enough

[rayrac] 09/9/2021 09:18

Hardly any trades and the best one appears a buy.

Funny old world this investing lark?

[brucie5] 08/9/2021 10:55

Fair points, TbT. Thanks.

[rayrac] 08/9/2021 10:29

Should be called…Tharisa metals, or Tharisa precious metals? Then peeps wouldn’t think it’s a fashion house…

[saltraider] 08/9/2021 09:23

@Tiger, I think Zambia can be considered a much more attractive prospect from a political economy standpoint following the outcome of last month's elections ... not least the previous regime's decision to accept peacefully the outcome of the democratic process.

Zambia faces many challenges but -- under political leadership that firmly accepts the rule of law, is committed to good economic management and broadly-based national development, and has a broadly positive stance to business enterprise -- there is room for optimism about its future.

[tigerbythetail] 08/9/2021 08:51

Hi Brucie!
To tell the truth, I've stopped following JLP closely.
It's not just South Africa that is a risk factor over there - Zambia is a far worse jurisdiction (by a distance). Then there are questions about whether the various metallurgical processes involved will work straight out of the box, the financial reporting is delayed and opaque and frankly deceptive, and finally the notorious Colin Bird(!) is still Chairman, and this despite him having sold all his shares (and the CEO having sold his as well). Leon Coetzer is a great salesman, but I'm not buying this breakneck "growth" policy. Not at the current share price, any road.
SLP and THS are both excellent well-run companies with clear financials and which make big profits and pay decent dividends and which are seriously undervalued. I make THS to be better "value" right now, but I have money in both.

[brucie5] 07/9/2021 12:54

All three are on the face of it, undervalued, THS, JLP, THS. THS offers the highest nominal dividend, but SLP likes giveaway specials. JLP is pure growth.

I've been in and out of all three, currently hold some SLP in an income folio. Got out of my earlier holdings on the strong pullback, to see where it came to rest. Tbh, I don't quite understand the weakness but have been around JLP in particular, to know that SA risk will always make a discount, and that's on top of the vagaries of PGM pricing. Good luck, though. Certainly on my radar to become reinvolved.

[martinfrench] 07/9/2021 12:46

same as slp, income and growth !

momentum should never be used in the same sentence as ths :-)

for time being anyway.....will change

[brucie5] 07/9/2021 12:38

martinfrench7 Sep '21 - 12:06 - 941 of 941
0 0 0
out of the most popular uk big 3 pgm stocks, slp, jlp etc, this is the only one wthat hasnt come out of the recent mini slump

opportunity or dead money ? dead money here is a bit of a problem...
--------------------------------------------------------
Martin, you're being paid to wait, to the tune of over 6%. Decide what you're here for, momentum, growth or value.

[martinfrench] 07/9/2021 12:06

out of the most popular uk big 3 pgm stocks, slp, jlp etc, this is the only one wthat hasnt come out of the recent mini slump

opportunity or dead money ? dead money here is a bit of a problem....

at these levels of volume its almost not worth them being listed and sometimes it feels like thaey are actually suspended !

i think partial opportunity, on rough observation, ths have had a general 20p differential to slp, so.......time to reinstate that

[sailing john] 06/9/2021 14:35

There have been a few one off larger trades recently 100k+ that always look like buys taking account of prevailing actual buy/sell prices.
eg today 6th Sept 222k at 113p
and 2nd Sept 126k at 113p
plus some others

It looks like somebody is mopping up cheap stock and providing a useful floor
As others have said on here/LSE we need a lot more interest to reach fair value
I suspect we will have to wait until FY results published in late November before Mr M takes note although the early Oct TS will give a good indication

I have an eps of 21p for 2H giving a FY eps of 36p PE 3.1 at 113p which compares favourably with SLP and JLP especially given THS's investment in assets, mine and machinery plus diversification with PGMs + chrome and opportunities outside SA.

[martinfrench] 06/9/2021 10:51

thanks, thought so, they are even more undervalued than first glance today

[tigerbythetail] 06/9/2021 10:42

I'm not in a position to check right now.
But does the $59m match the trade receivables minus trade payables balance? If so, then yes.
Remember, SLP only get paid for the PGMs they produce about four months after they actually deliver them to the smelter / refiner. This is what this balance is reflecting - money earnt but not yet received. It's usually a pretty hefty number.
(THS also operate on the same principle (for now, at least) when it comes to PGM production, so THS's financial position is always better than it looks at first sight as well).

[martinfrench] 06/9/2021 10:36

question for you mr tiger from the liberium note over in slp land.....one i asked over there

With a $106m cash position and $59m of net working capital

is this yet to be paid for pgms from sales due to slp ?

[tigerbythetail] 06/9/2021 10:27

Agree about the volume! Trading has almost stopped in this share...
We should have three pieces of news to come over the next month or so:
1. Q3 production;
2. Vulcan plant completion and ramp-up;
3. Hopefully, DFS for Karo.
Hopefully that will spark some interest. This is so undervalued it's really not very funny.