Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 08:27

And just as I say that, someone just bought 80k via 8*10k trades in a minute this morning. He/she knows!

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 08:26

Martin, whilst I understand the frustration I disagree with your views. Make no mistake I'm here to make money too but there needs to be a sensible use of internal cash generated, not to just appease short term share holders. Tharisa are paying a good dividend and I certainly expect them to increase the payout as NPAT increases however they have some stellar projects including Salene Chrome, Karo Platinum etc. which can go to significantly add value to the company.

A stock as undervalued as this cannot remain under the radar too long, eventually the patient will be rewarded. The time will come when this would gloriously re-rate and whether that is just a normal market correction, buying frenzy from institutions and retail following alike or simply through Tharisa's own share buybacks. Eventually it will happen but for now its hard to lay blame on THS for the drop in price and lack of visibility.

The drop from 150-160p a couple of months ago to the current levels was not a reflection of the company as they've just posted their strongest financial/operational quarter and half year results to date in their history! Whilst the market knocked off c45% of its value, internally they've made more money than they ever have in the comparative period. Besides Phoevos has been doing several interviews and investor events to keep the PR going. His family owns over 42% of the company so they are fully vested too!

I have no doubts whatsoever that value will prevail. I've been invested long enough to know that some stocks is worth buyin/adding and holding for the eventually rerate to fair value.

[martinfrench] 21/7/2021 14:59

and if so many great projects come fully on stream in a year or so could also do a share buy back at these levels

[martinfrench] 21/7/2021 14:07

tbtt,

doesnt matter how great a comapny is if no one is interested or is unknown UNLESS they start chucking out divs which will change this dramtically, show us the money and people will be interested

so when they have finished paying for vulcan they need to up the divs

slp get picked up by our fan club when they get trashed, ths doesnt seem to

something has to change here

[tigerbythetail] 21/7/2021 12:55

I think "do not think" is right on the money.
SLP is a well-known and heavily-traded stock. THS seems to be obscure. Just look at the difference in volumes.
I still make THS the better long term play - no disrespect to SLP, which is still a great company.

[basem1] 21/7/2021 12:13

A definite disconnect here between what people think about SLP and what they do not think about THS

[basem1] 20/7/2021 08:56

There is support at this current level on the 3 year chart UKG

[sotolo] 19/7/2021 21:06

Tiger I think there are two real worries, first rhodium barely perked up on the recent trouble and is on the way back down along with other PGM’s, which could speed if more worries about economic growth; and with chrome although transport may be the immediate worry, and like rhodium worry about world economy seeping in, increased chrome tax may be becoming more likely with the political situation. Shares look forward and the question we have been asking from rhodium at 30,000 is ever more pertinent, it will soon have halved as many expected; it would appear that many investors appear it to halve again, and probably again

[tigerbythetail] 19/7/2021 18:37

Well, that was a bad day.
A guess a combination of last week's South Africa troubles (though they have died down now) and a wider market sell-off.
But Tharisa is still the same very appealing investment case it was a few days ago - it's just available at a cheaper price. And price is what you pay and value is what you get.
I added a few today, but I'm going slowly. Not sure this is the bottom yet. It should be, by all rights, but markets are crazy...

[ukgeorge] 19/7/2021 08:48

Sadly looks like 120p support hasn't held, purely looking at the chart looks like £1, is the next target. Very annoying given how profitable the company has been. Hopefully the ports are up and running quickly and the freight costs start to come down soon.

[tigerbythetail] 16/7/2021 21:35

Hi Sotolo!
The signs are there today that the unrest is beginning to calm down in SA. It was always limited to two provinces, and it seems that the government has Gauteng (i.e. Johannesburg) back under control. KwaZuluNatal (Zuma's home province, since he's a Zulu) is still restless.
You can actually see the palladium market and rhodium market relaxing slightly over the last day or so as it becomes evident this is is not an Armageddon event for South Africa. Oddly, this is one case where falling PGM prices is actually good news for Tharisa!
The unrest never came close to Tharisa mine, so I assume it should be working normally. However, there may be effects on the ports in Durban and Richards Bay, so bulk chrome exports to China could be delayed. Who knows, there could be effects on electricity generation and supply of diesel and chemicals to the mine as well. It's hard to judge.
I take the point about the basket price dropping slightly, so the share price should drop to match it. But that DOES assume that Tharisa was fairly priced at 150p. And I don't think it was. It's still a ridiculously cheap stock given its earnings and long life of mine.
I'm quite happy to hold here, and maybe add on weakness. I think the rhodium shortage will begin to bite again later in the year as the chip shortage which is so severely limiting car production starts to fall away.
The one piece of news I'd be happy to get, is that the institutional seller has finally finished.

[sotolo] 16/7/2021 16:19

Well Tiger far from going to £2 THS is back under 120, I suppose that is fair, or even less than one might expect, with a 25% fall in the PGM basket, remembering a share is worth less for a given basket on the way down, as it is the expectation that matters. Another explanation is that the unrest in SA, while not necessarily threatening our mine, is partly due to intense inequality and poverty, so tax rises could be on the cards including the long threatened higher chrome tax, which could more than obviate Vulcan benefits

[brucie5] 16/7/2021 13:31

Great article, and let's hope a correct analysis. Doesn't however, appear to be doing my the share price of THS...

[redtrend] 16/7/2021 13:20

2nd that, thanks for sharing Catsick

[otemple3] 16/7/2021 12:43

Really interesting post, thanks for sharing

[lennonsalive] 16/7/2021 09:11

SA what a mess. Just watched a news story on the lotting and riots

[nigelpm] 14/7/2021 20:53

Price drop must relate to the problems in SA. It is a disaster zone at the moment.

[adamsmithfreetrader] 14/7/2021 16:38

Thanks for the useful comments and yes Tiger I agree they do have skin in the game. Something I think is good providing they don't dominate the minority shareholders which, to date, I haven't had a sense of.

[tigerbythetail] 14/7/2021 15:41

Sibanye Stillwater is listed in Johannesburg! (And it has operations in Canada as well as South Africa). Maybe it's investors are more objective!
I can't help but think that our UK press has something to do with the sharp drops that SLP and THS have suffered today. E.g. if you read the reporting in the Telegraph, then you'd think South Africa is on the brink of disintegration. Which I think is far from the truth, but my guess is that some investors have reacted to that.
Ragnar is unquestionably a sharp cookie, and it's always worth reading his posts carefully. But I think he's overstated things. I guess we're all a bit frustrated with the share price.
Rhodium $19,700 right now (JMAT). I think it will go back to $30K rapidly if there are any serious threats to South African production (which constitutes the bulk of the world's supply).

[sotolo] 14/7/2021 14:25

interesting to read Ragnarlothrok on LSE board who said a bit earlier today "Unrest has nothing to do with it. Impala/Sibanye +5% today so far". As far as I can see rhodium should rise on SA political problems?

[haywards26] 14/7/2021 13:08

My comment on another of my PGM shareholdings (SLP) ring true here also..

PGM prices are currently significantly higher than 12 months ago.

The majority of the share price drop is SA related due to the civil unrest, simples.

The next set of financials will be truly fantastic and will continue to be great at current PGM pricing levels.

Time to buy when others are fearful. Fundamentally a sound company. The geographic location is one of the biggest risk factors, always was and always will be hence lower P/E rating.

Market fundamentals for PGM are also stacked in our favour for the short and medium term, of course there will be price variations...as with anything in life.

[tigerbythetail] 14/7/2021 12:41

The family is Medway, @ c. 40%.
I think they also own some shares directly as well.
So you can't say they don't have skin in the game!

[brucie5] 14/7/2021 12:40

All a bit unnerving, particularly when one holds THS + SLP. But there again, the share price does does not equate to value, which is function of earnings, and for me, sustainable cash dividends. So I would say, watch, but don't panic. The metrics appear to be outstanding.