Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 01/7/2021 13:29

Tiger correct. And Tharisa IR even posted on LSE board at the time.

[tigerbythetail] 01/7/2021 13:17

Hi Moneyman!
This has been dealt with directly by Tharisa on the LSE board a few weeks back.
As I remember it, it's a technical thing to do with Brexit, and just involves moving the registry. Tharisa were very forceful that it there was no question of a delisting or anything else that would impact shareholders.
But you might want to get in touch with them directly if you are worried. (I'm not in the least, FWIW).

[ukgeorge] 01/7/2021 13:07

no, problems with iweb (part of halifax) sold some earlier, expecting dividend tomorrow. Sold some to buy more irr ironridge a lithium play that had great news today.

[moneyman50] 01/7/2021 12:28

Very disturbing letter from HSBC this morning.
Stated that Tharisa shares will be moved to the Cyprus stock exchange and HSBC have stoped allowing trades in Tharisa shares from 25th June.
Have spoken to other brokers and Barclays and they are trading shares as normal.
Even the HSBC trader I spoke to can’t see anything has changed.
Surely if a delisting from London was happening it would have been announced via RNS.
Anyone having similar problems?

[croasdalelfc] 01/7/2021 07:25

Just to note that the Q ended was Q3 for THS in terms of fiscal year. NB the Vulcan plant due to complete by end Sept . Probably a few weeks to commission it then all systems go

[tigerbythetail] 30/6/2021 15:06

Always nice to get paid a decent dividend. (AJ Bell are quick about such things; but they're website tends to go down at critical moments, so I'm not recommending their services).
The average rhodium price for the quarter just ending today (Q2 2020) is $25,780, compared to an average for Q1 2020 of $23,450. (All JMAT prices). Most other metal prices (chrome, palladium, iridium etc.) have also slightly improved over Q1, so as long as production has held up reasonably well, the quarter just ending should be the best in Tharisa's history.

[tigerbythetail] 28/6/2021 16:53

Just to note that South Africa has entered into a new phase of Level 4 restrictions, to try and limit the spread of the latest wave of Covid. This doesn't directly affect miners, but many service industries are being forced to close for the next two weeks, so more suffering for the ordinary people. Vaccination rates are still very low in SA.
Rhodium and other PGM prices have improved slightly today, and I wonder if that's not a reflection of market nervousness about SA supply. It's one thing for a mechanised open pit miner like Tharisa to put in place health safety measures. But how do you do that effectively if you are a labour intensive deep miner, like many of Tharisa's competitors? it's next to impossible.

[rjmahan] 27/6/2021 17:35

DarkStar has a point, PE of 2/3 is silly - so 1.5 isnt that much sillier! Price is irrelevant, look to the value....

[dr darkstar] 26/6/2021 21:47

Gap to close at 79.5p. Gaps nearly always close!

[tigerbythetail] 24/6/2021 09:48

As regards rhodium supply and demand, and thus its price, here's some good news. Chip supply for automobiles, which has been constrained and which has (quite severely) limited worldwide automobile production, is slowly returning to normal.
www.digitimes.com/news/a20210623VL201.html
This should lead to increased demand for rhodium in the second half of this year (as 90% of rhodium demand is automotive) and support its price.
Also, another phase of the China 6 emissions regulations kicks in on July 1st, which should also be price supportive.
I'm not sure where the rhodium price will settle for the next few months. Its volatility is incredible. But I still think there is an implicit "floor" of around five times the price of an ounce of palladium - which would currently imply a floor of around $13,000 / oz. At this rhodium price Tharisa would still be highly profitable and woefully undervalued.
What's spooking the market, IMO, is memories of the rhodium price collapse ten years ago. But the market for PGMs was completely different back then, and I don't see that almost vertical drop repeating. Rhodium supply is still limited, and its demand firm and underpinned by legally-binding emissions regulations.

[basem1] 24/6/2021 08:09

Good posts guys Keep the faith

[redtrend] 24/6/2021 04:27

AimSurfer - to try and answer your question what PGM price do they break-even, it's best to use the most recent 2021 Interims Ending March 2021:

PGMS

PGM Cost of Sales: $96.812m (based on Forex 15.3)
With PGM Oz of 75,100 Oz, the all-in cost per oz for PGMs is $1,289oz
With ZAR strengthening to 14.3, the all-in cost is likely now $1,379oz, however production should increase in 2nd half (85k to counter ZAR strength and increased diesel prices).

I call it "all-in cost" rather than AISC (All-in including for Stay in Business Capex), because using the cost of sales metric from interims includes for D&A and impairments (non-cash costs). Simplistically this broadly mirrors the SIB Capex.

Based on the current 6E PGM basket ($3,225oz) and minus refiners fee of circa 13-15%, the THS PGM sale price is circa $2,800oz.

So there is still a very large margin of $1,400oz x 160k oz (annualised, not taking into account planned increase to 200k oz over 2yrs or so) = $224m.


CHROME

You can do the same number crunching on Chrome using Interims. But to summarize, using $155tn Chrome, all-in cost of $105tn, I calculate margin of $63m for Chrome based on 1.5m tonnes.

Post Sept 2021 for FYE Sept 2022, THS should have annualized 2MT chrome thanks to Vulcan project. AS the operating cost of Vulcan is very low (it was stated in one of the investor calls but can't remember off top of my head), pro-rata basis with 2MT chrome, this should significantly lower all-in cost per tonne and increase margin to $95-100m based on $155tn Chrome.


So not including the Marketing and Agency arms which bring in small profits of circa $2m nor future growth prospects in Zimbabwe expansions, SA THS vertical expansions/ refining initiatives, we're looking at margin of $287m - $324m, albeit once you take into account SA Tax and the THS Non-controlling interest (BEE), you're looking at post-tax margin of $172-192m (albeit depends how accountants crunch numbers on D&A etc.), when THS current market cap £338m ($473m).

So THS still on a paltry PE of 2.5 - 2.75 even with softening of PGM basket, when it has a 50+yrs life of mine (14yrs open pit + 40yrs underground)!

[sotolo] 23/6/2021 22:43

What an intelligent post Feynzz, just so.

[sotolo] 23/6/2021 22:42

What an intelligent post Feynzz, just so

[feynzz] 23/6/2021 18:34

Hi sipps,

The Pouroulis family owns >40% of the shares in the company so I don't think your statement about no skin in the game is correct.

The company has done at least 2 Investor Meet presentations in the last 3 months and the message of growth is very clear. Investing c$50m on the Vulcan plant this year which would increase chrome production by 25% at a variable price of $10/t. They have also said that they are working on building an in-house smelting complex so that from the end of next year they can refine their own metals which would enable them to save the 15% they currently pay to refiners. In addition, they will ramp up their PGM production to 200k PGMoz in the next 18 months.

I agree the basket price has fallen quite a lot but it is still greater than the H1 average when they made a $60m NPAT on a 75koz PGM production. Production for H2 should be greater than 80koz. The main thing to wait and see is where Rhodium settles. If it can settle around the $14k mark that would be excellent for Tharisa.

[sipps] 23/6/2021 17:55

Sotolo - reasons for selling..
Directors - not enough skin in the game.
Small investors - no protection / news / rns / placings - to combat Fidelity selling.
Future outlook - company failure to promote growth, margins, investment etc. I felt they are relying too much on now historic profit that may not guarantee share price rise .. a lack of confidence in the company is stopping new investors taking a new position. I need to see sentiment improve before I'm back in... good luck

[aimsurfer] 23/6/2021 15:23

At what PGM price do they break-even?

[sotolo] 23/6/2021 14:56

I think that something stopping investors buying might be the now 25% fall in price they get for PGM’s which of course still cost the same to produce, and the worry this may go far further, so you are probably wise to sell out to Lucky and me who are bravely or maybe foolhardily pLaying at catching knives, buying and getting sore hands

[sotolo] 23/6/2021 14:56

I think that something stopping investors buying might be the now 25% fall in price they get for PGM’s which of course still cost the same to produce, and the worry this may go far further, so you are probably wise to sell out to Lucky and me who are bravely or maybe foolhardily pLaying at catching knives, buying and getting sore hands

[sipps] 23/6/2021 13:34

I'm out now - was my largest holding - but just did not like the lack of support - its like something is stopping investors buying THS - good luck all holders -

[ukgeorge] 22/6/2021 08:15

R24.29 (current price) is £1.22.45

Yesterdays low open can partly be explained by the fall there. Roll on sentiment moving back to being positive. After all we have had a long spell of exceptional metals prices even if Rhodium has declined a bit recently.

[sipps] 22/6/2021 07:32

Tharisa up 5.1% on JSE South Africa Market yesterday 21st June ... Need UK to catch up and start to see value on offer ...

[sotolo] 21/6/2021 22:02

Tiger, great to find you here, I wondered where you had gone. I sold more Cey a week ago, and bought more Tharisa with the money this morning in two trances as could only buy £30k at first. Where do you see rhodium going? Glad you are busy again. All best

[nimrod22] 21/6/2021 18:48

I suspect tomorrow will be an up, with Palladium rising today 4% in Dollar terms. I notice Sibanye Stillwater SBSW (a PGM producer) on the US market already rose today by 3.4%. As I mentioned earlier THS is dropping in to an oversold position re the RSI graph.
China is still a price taker, rather than a fixer despite its efforts first to control/contain imports and then releasing stockpiles, none of this works in the near to long term; the market will decide the price.