Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tonytyke2] 14/9/2021 15:08

Cheers for the info.

[tigerbythetail] 14/9/2021 15:01

I haven't made the trade (yet). I decided to wait and see how prices are tomorrow morning.
I've used SPDM for palladium in the past, and SPLT for platinum. They both did the job I asked of them.

[tonytyke2] 14/9/2021 14:41

Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium ETF (PALL) looks the largest. But my broker does not appear to offer options here.

[tonytyke2] 14/9/2021 14:31

Did you find a Palladium etf TBTT? It could be a good call!

[tigerbythetail] 14/9/2021 13:15

My best guess is that today marks the capitulation low for palladium, at least - and possibly also for rhodium.
I'm actually tempted to put some money into a palladium ETF for a quick trade.

[martinfrench] 14/9/2021 10:47

still holding sotolo ?

[brwo349] 14/9/2021 08:54

this is an unmitigated disaster

[sotolo] 14/9/2021 06:44

Well we know rh has fallen below my first figure $15000 already, now down to $14000 and falling very fast, at this rate $10000 rh is very soon but will it go all the way back to $2000 and lower? Some poo pood me suggesting it halving when it hit nearly $30k, but it has. At this morning’s level the PGM basket is $2500 so PGM profits have more than halved but I reckon stil getting on for £100k a year which is amazing, tho shame they are falling at getting on for 10% a day. Car outputs are still being cut and we’ll into next year before they turn which could lead to a lot further fall, and a more normal PE, of course our lowly share price predicted this tho a lot here didn’t want to believe how hugely rh was in an unsustainable bubble as many prices went doo lally with reduced Covid production, transport etc. All imho

[plat hunter] 13/9/2021 08:48

I misunderstood, apologies Stolo

[sotolo] 13/9/2021 06:51

Plat My post certainly didn’t say Tharisa doesn’t share the same risks as other miners. Quite the contrary, it is churning off cash but isn’t valued higher just because of worry about the future, while Hoc and Cey are hit by lower profits today. However even with profits way up as we will have, Mining of PM’s and PGM’s is just not very popular with investors today worrying also that prices of both will fall further. Rh is now nearly halved since the spring at $15500 this morning. The THS basket is now below $2700. .As said we are lucky in a way the price didn’t rise further as investors worried it had got far too high, so the fall so far hasn’t been as bad as one would have expected from the metal tumble. Of course chromium is now becoming a bigger part of the mix tho that may be hurt by reduced Chinese demand, a crash when money printing comes home to roost and the proposed new tax. As said it seems THS shares all the future worries of other miners from investors. The question Inhave been asking since spring is how far rh will fall $15k, $10k, back to where it was $2k? Toyota has said production will stay down many more months, Daimler and BMW say the will keep production lower; then we will have reducing ICE in developed countries, but increasing demand in Africa and the third world with increasingly stringent pollution regulation. Hence imho low PEs in sector, which are usually seen at the top of the PGM cycle

[plat hunter] 12/9/2021 12:34

To add to that, the only way a third party processor can limit their exposure to mining related production risk, is to diversify with multiple sites. Again much in the same way an actual miner will benefit from a multi mine and jurisdiction strategy.

[plat hunter] 12/9/2021 12:30

Stolo. You can't say THS doesn't share the same risks as conventional miners, that I'm afraid is a forum board invented fact.THS and other metal processing outfits, process 'Run of Mine Material' if the miner processes less ore, or a lower grade then i'm afraid it directly affects the throughput and grade recovery of the 2nd stream processor.

[sotolo] 10/9/2021 11:46

Yes but who would have predicted their output falling and costs going up quite so much reducing profit even with gold at $1800, dangerous things miners. Cey says IF ALL GOES TO PLAN they will recover production in a couple of years. Hoc says it will plough a chunk of profit into rare earths that will yield big profits in 2030’s IF rare earth prices stay high, Chile doesn’t tax it all away, they don’t have mining setbacks and of course no outliers like covid. Miners costs to replace depleted resources, find new revenue streams and dig it out seem to rise just as fast as the gold price meaning little share price gain over the longer term for most. So these two are both hit as jam tomorrow is a bit dangerous, while THS with so much jam today is hit by worries about jam tomorrow.

[tigerbythetail] 10/9/2021 10:45

The chip shortage is tricky to predict - every article I read gives a different answer. And its relationship with rhodium and palladium prices isn't a straight correlation, either.
If you're a carmaker, and you expect the chip shortage to ease, then I think you would buy stocks of Rh and Pd well in advance of the actual easing. IMO, it's about the direction of travel as much as it is about quantities of cars actually being made.
Let's hope the world isn't entering a stagflationary episode. And that China doesn't slow down too much. And so on.
If you look at the long term share graph, 110p is only an "average" price for THS. And the company is much improved over the last few years (own mining fleet, Vulcan plant all but complete, debts wiped out, production increased etc.).
All told, investment in stocks feels like a defensive battle right now. I'm just trying to make sure I don't lose, really! Who could believe Centamin at 92p and HOC at 158p with gold at $1,800/oz???

[sotolo] 10/9/2021 09:58

Sorry our PGM basket is down $1500 TO $2750 (from near $4250) with aircraft $1000 you suggest that is PGM profit down from $3250 to $1750 so near halved.
Car makers now say chip shortage should last well into next year, and my understanding is chrome is just turning down. We will still of course make very decent profits at current prices, the question is how much further they fall affecting our share price before turning back up.
Incidentally the LSE board is totally dead, mimicking the almost total lack of interest and trading activity in THS.

[tigerbythetail] 10/9/2021 08:42

Chrome price is very good at the moment, I think. Around $180/t was the last I heard.
I know it doesn't make up fully for the loss of PGM profits (thanks to the falling basket price), but THS should be making very good money on chrome at this price, even with increased transport costs.
p.s. I think you mean PGM basket price down to $2,750/oz, from a high of just over $4,000 (quoted from memory). Approx. AISC for PGMs around $1,000/oz to $1,100/oz (hard to calculate exactly as THS is a bi-product miner).
Hopefully, the automotive chip shortage will improve from here. I certainly never thought it could be this severe or last this long!

[sotolo] 10/9/2021 08:34

Our basket is down $1500 from $2750, which halves our PGM profits. Luckily investors expecting this never bid up our share price as much as the PGM rise warranted, you see just how little they trade it, and so it has fallen less than it should. However the chip shortage and lower motor production could last a while yet plus with China faltering chromium could also turn back, so from here we may track falling prices slightly more. Or maybe investors will begin to look for the mid turn PGM turn up before the longer term fall? However the market seems relatively rational on this to me and many stay away, and the few who buy demand a huge risk premium, with PGM and chrome tax worries

[martinfrench] 09/9/2021 09:07

from my observation of ths over the same time period i was trading SLP, ths was mostly like this, then moved up 40p in about 2 weeks (maybe less)

with so many private investors looking for good quality stocks just have no idea how this escapes....maybe their pr team and broker need to seriously mkt this

but, as we know, things change and there will be a time where people cant get enough

[rayrac] 09/9/2021 08:18

Hardly any trades and the best one appears a buy.

Funny old world this investing lark?

[brucie5] 08/9/2021 09:55

Fair points, TbT. Thanks.

[rayrac] 08/9/2021 09:29

Should be called…Tharisa metals, or Tharisa precious metals? Then peeps wouldn’t think it’s a fashion house…

[saltraider] 08/9/2021 08:23

@Tiger, I think Zambia can be considered a much more attractive prospect from a political economy standpoint following the outcome of last month's elections ... not least the previous regime's decision to accept peacefully the outcome of the democratic process.

Zambia faces many challenges but -- under political leadership that firmly accepts the rule of law, is committed to good economic management and broadly-based national development, and has a broadly positive stance to business enterprise -- there is room for optimism about its future.

[tigerbythetail] 08/9/2021 07:51

Hi Brucie!
To tell the truth, I've stopped following JLP closely.
It's not just South Africa that is a risk factor over there - Zambia is a far worse jurisdiction (by a distance). Then there are questions about whether the various metallurgical processes involved will work straight out of the box, the financial reporting is delayed and opaque and frankly deceptive, and finally the notorious Colin Bird(!) is still Chairman, and this despite him having sold all his shares (and the CEO having sold his as well). Leon Coetzer is a great salesman, but I'm not buying this breakneck "growth" policy. Not at the current share price, any road.
SLP and THS are both excellent well-run companies with clear financials and which make big profits and pay decent dividends and which are seriously undervalued. I make THS to be better "value" right now, but I have money in both.