Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[scooper72] 16/9/2021 11:11

I'm down about 30% but am thinking with the dividend at over 7% and the div cover being 4x it probably makes sense at this point to hold.

[ukgeorge] 16/9/2021 10:51

Sadly looks like 80p is looking likely. Very annoying and I got sucked in by the high rhodium price. Oh well If it drops to that I will be buying. Roll on some good results and the capital spending dropping.

[sotolo] 15/9/2021 17:16

Martin I think this is one of the most intelligent and courteous boards, thanks. What I have posted for many months is that Rhodium was in a bubble but even if it falls by a large percentage fundamentally (which is how I invest) it doesn’t matter to me as the profit from Chromium alone is enough to justify the price to me. The market can pay what it wants, I joined as a long term holder.

[martinfrench] 15/9/2021 12:44

you must think we are 2 yrs old with an iq to match

"oh look i've bought everything at or near the peak but hey i've gone against my other thoughts to just hold even though i post non stop about the downfall of rhodium on a daily basis"

really believable........

more likely one of those that missed the initial pgm surge last year

[sotolo] 15/9/2021 07:59

Xx Whitehunter

[whitehunter] 14/9/2021 22:22

A stonking special dividend would smell a lot better :)

[sotolo] 14/9/2021 19:14

Yes, I am terrible and never believe my own prognostications, have held Centamin since 220, Hoc since 320 both more than halved, I am afraid I shall just hang on in here. The fact is this would be reasonably priced at profits of £30000 a year so should come right, even if Rhodium falls considerably more, Chromium falls and South Africa taxes us a lot more, and requires more sharing. However RHS may fall further in the meantime, a stinking special dividend would help and a greater than 17% of profit payout to us.

[tonytyke2] 14/9/2021 16:08

Cheers for the info.

[tigerbythetail] 14/9/2021 16:01

I haven't made the trade (yet). I decided to wait and see how prices are tomorrow morning.
I've used SPDM for palladium in the past, and SPLT for platinum. They both did the job I asked of them.

[tonytyke2] 14/9/2021 15:41

Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium ETF (PALL) looks the largest. But my broker does not appear to offer options here.

[tonytyke2] 14/9/2021 15:31

Did you find a Palladium etf TBTT? It could be a good call!

[tigerbythetail] 14/9/2021 14:15

My best guess is that today marks the capitulation low for palladium, at least - and possibly also for rhodium.
I'm actually tempted to put some money into a palladium ETF for a quick trade.

[martinfrench] 14/9/2021 11:47

still holding sotolo ?

[brwo349] 14/9/2021 09:54

this is an unmitigated disaster

[sotolo] 14/9/2021 07:44

Well we know rh has fallen below my first figure $15000 already, now down to $14000 and falling very fast, at this rate $10000 rh is very soon but will it go all the way back to $2000 and lower? Some poo pood me suggesting it halving when it hit nearly $30k, but it has. At this morning’s level the PGM basket is $2500 so PGM profits have more than halved but I reckon stil getting on for £100k a year which is amazing, tho shame they are falling at getting on for 10% a day. Car outputs are still being cut and we’ll into next year before they turn which could lead to a lot further fall, and a more normal PE, of course our lowly share price predicted this tho a lot here didn’t want to believe how hugely rh was in an unsustainable bubble as many prices went doo lally with reduced Covid production, transport etc. All imho

[plat hunter] 13/9/2021 09:48

I misunderstood, apologies Stolo

[sotolo] 13/9/2021 07:51

Plat My post certainly didn’t say Tharisa doesn’t share the same risks as other miners. Quite the contrary, it is churning off cash but isn’t valued higher just because of worry about the future, while Hoc and Cey are hit by lower profits today. However even with profits way up as we will have, Mining of PM’s and PGM’s is just not very popular with investors today worrying also that prices of both will fall further. Rh is now nearly halved since the spring at $15500 this morning. The THS basket is now below $2700. .As said we are lucky in a way the price didn’t rise further as investors worried it had got far too high, so the fall so far hasn’t been as bad as one would have expected from the metal tumble. Of course chromium is now becoming a bigger part of the mix tho that may be hurt by reduced Chinese demand, a crash when money printing comes home to roost and the proposed new tax. As said it seems THS shares all the future worries of other miners from investors. The question Inhave been asking since spring is how far rh will fall $15k, $10k, back to where it was $2k? Toyota has said production will stay down many more months, Daimler and BMW say the will keep production lower; then we will have reducing ICE in developed countries, but increasing demand in Africa and the third world with increasingly stringent pollution regulation. Hence imho low PEs in sector, which are usually seen at the top of the PGM cycle

[plat hunter] 12/9/2021 13:34

To add to that, the only way a third party processor can limit their exposure to mining related production risk, is to diversify with multiple sites. Again much in the same way an actual miner will benefit from a multi mine and jurisdiction strategy.

[plat hunter] 12/9/2021 13:30

Stolo. You can't say THS doesn't share the same risks as conventional miners, that I'm afraid is a forum board invented fact.THS and other metal processing outfits, process 'Run of Mine Material' if the miner processes less ore, or a lower grade then i'm afraid it directly affects the throughput and grade recovery of the 2nd stream processor.

[sotolo] 10/9/2021 12:46

Yes but who would have predicted their output falling and costs going up quite so much reducing profit even with gold at $1800, dangerous things miners. Cey says IF ALL GOES TO PLAN they will recover production in a couple of years. Hoc says it will plough a chunk of profit into rare earths that will yield big profits in 2030’s IF rare earth prices stay high, Chile doesn’t tax it all away, they don’t have mining setbacks and of course no outliers like covid. Miners costs to replace depleted resources, find new revenue streams and dig it out seem to rise just as fast as the gold price meaning little share price gain over the longer term for most. So these two are both hit as jam tomorrow is a bit dangerous, while THS with so much jam today is hit by worries about jam tomorrow.

[tigerbythetail] 10/9/2021 11:45

The chip shortage is tricky to predict - every article I read gives a different answer. And its relationship with rhodium and palladium prices isn't a straight correlation, either.
If you're a carmaker, and you expect the chip shortage to ease, then I think you would buy stocks of Rh and Pd well in advance of the actual easing. IMO, it's about the direction of travel as much as it is about quantities of cars actually being made.
Let's hope the world isn't entering a stagflationary episode. And that China doesn't slow down too much. And so on.
If you look at the long term share graph, 110p is only an "average" price for THS. And the company is much improved over the last few years (own mining fleet, Vulcan plant all but complete, debts wiped out, production increased etc.).
All told, investment in stocks feels like a defensive battle right now. I'm just trying to make sure I don't lose, really! Who could believe Centamin at 92p and HOC at 158p with gold at $1,800/oz???