Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[martinfrench] 13/4/2021 19:21

thanks george

[ukgeorge] 13/4/2021 19:03

Phoevos Pouroulis presented this evening

Guidance 155-165 is still on track post

want to grow to 200koz over next 18 months

Smelter to capture 15% margin

Additional assets should provide growth for shareholders

Salene (chrome) is very high grade and would get a premium
Karo very exciting.....new mine expected to be low cost

Off take agreement in place until october 2022 for the current pgm production

Chrome 25% of revenue currently PGM 75%

Generating a lot of cash half year financials will show this

Good presentation, the moderator and questions weren't very good.

[rogerramjett] 13/4/2021 17:17

Overeager. Thanks. I had rough estimate of 9p in mind. Any more is a bonus.

[overeager] 13/4/2021 10:49

Rogerramjett,

Consensus dividend forecast for 2021 is $0.067.
I'm looking for net profit more like $200m which at a 15% payout would be approx 12p per share. (Don't hold me to this - this depends on PGM prices holding up)

[rogerramjett] 13/4/2021 10:28

What is the expected interim dividend based upon these production figures, estimated revenue and FCF ? Usually 15% of net. Anyone able to work that out ?

Roughly of course ?

[overeager] 13/4/2021 10:22

"at least it all appears to be self funding and that is what you want as a shareholder
steady as she goes"

Exactly - historically the ramp up in production capacity would have had to be funded by borrowing - now it's coming out of operating cash flow.

Update is bang in line with expectation and onward and upward from here.

[ukgeorge] 13/4/2021 09:24

nice summary

[ntv] 13/4/2021 08:28

I don't know why people were expecting special dividends because they are expanding production and spending a lot of capital
at least it all appears to be self funding and that is what you want as a shareholder
steady as she goes

[farnesbarnes] 13/4/2021 07:55

I particular liked the dig at Nornickel :)

[rogerramjett] 13/4/2021 07:34

Yes. So quarterly revenue will have increased quite a percentage over Q1.

H2 with that basket price and an increase in production over H1 will be even better.

On track for a bumper year. Not a trade for me as they are showing operational growth in Vulcan as well as mining a product that is in deficit with a rising and sustainable price. Even with a fall in the basket price its still very undervalued considering margins will increase as a result of higher basket price and Vulcan in operation.

[ukgeorge] 13/4/2021 07:29

Basket price increase 40 percent quarter on quarter averaging 3290 and currently sits at 4011.Excellent

[jon4567] 13/4/2021 07:21

Sotolo the second quarter production is always the lowest. Its because of festive holidays and rainy season. Update is exactly as expected.

[sotolo] 13/4/2021 07:17

Well sadly your guess looks wrong on all counts at quick reading. With PGM down 9% and more expensive chrome transport etc, seems cash is $31m not over $50 as you hoped so no special divi announcement

[ukgeorge] 13/4/2021 07:16

26M cash increase in the quarter, production all in line :)

[croasdalelfc] 12/4/2021 14:41

Most financials not until late May

[croasdalelfc] 12/4/2021 14:40

My guess is $305m H1 revenue >$50m net cash and dividend announcement.

[farnesbarnes] 12/4/2021 14:21

Substituting Rhodium with Palladium -

[davebowler] 12/4/2021 14:19

Substituting Rhodium with Palladium -

[ukgeorge] 12/4/2021 13:51

Tharisa presenting

[martinfrench] 12/4/2021 10:38

just added a little 2k purchase, dont expect fireworks tomorrow, prob at best into late 150s

of more interest the financials

[martinfrench] 12/4/2021 10:09

i have my near term (prob a yr) of slp at £2 and ths at £3, nice round numbers so not too much analysis, but i know the value of both and both are very possible, but as everyone says, really depends on rhodium

if rhodium stays above 25k these should be quite easy to achieve

[ukgeorge] 12/4/2021 09:01

Given the current profitability a target price of £3+ could be considered conservative. Obviously very much depends on how long rhodium prices are so high.

[farnesbarnes] 12/4/2021 08:45

Exactly my thoughts too George, albeit I have a target a bit higher than 160p.

[ukgeorge] 12/4/2021 08:42

If I put my rose tinted spetacles on when looking at the share price chart I see a cup and handle pattern.

These are a continuation pattern. There also doesn't look to be much obviouse resistance. 160p area is the previous all time high so some there.

Roll on an excepetional dividend I think 9p this year would be about right using the 15% payout ratio.

[ukgeorge] 12/4/2021 08:30

just had a top up 3,341 @ 149.5p

Production results tomorrow.

Roll on Rhodium prices remaining high for a long time