Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 08/4/2021 16:10

I knew I should of bought more :)

Breakout looks to be on

[x54v] 08/4/2021 14:12

Huge trade there.

Seller cleared?

[ninedoors99] 08/4/2021 13:56

Right , Someone with a large holding clearly has been for weeks....How do we think this will affect abs or limit the share price increase if/when significant revenues are confirmed ?

[ukgeorge] 08/4/2021 13:43

Looking at slide 5 and using todays prices I get the current 4e price to be $5840 before knocking the discount for refining off.



.....rh .......pt ...........pd ......au.. ir ....ru

production 2020 13514 ........78710........... 23001........ 271......... 6127..................... 20435

Current price 29500 2546 1228 1749 6250 425

6e $4750/oz annual production 142058
4e $5842/oz annual production 115496



$M metal value 399 200 28 0 38 9 total 675

After 15% discount 338.9........... 170.3............. 24.0......... 0.4.......... 32.5............. 7.4........ Total 573.5

Monthly 28.2 14.2 2.0 0.0 2.7 0.6 total 47.8

[ukgeorge] 08/4/2021 13:24

On the LSE chat board they were suggesting fidelity are selling out, so likely quite an overhang.

[ninedoors99] 08/4/2021 12:56

Lots of buys here again but Still a large seller it seems. Hopefully just balancing the books

[croasdalelfc] 08/4/2021 09:42

6 quarters of THS PGM growth - one quarter stymied because of Covid - - https://twitter.com/croasdale01/status/1380076956969005056?s=21

[overeager] 08/4/2021 08:42

UK George - I agree. The market seems to see the current PGM prices as an anomaly that will correct downwards. I see them more as the new normal.

[ukgeorge] 08/4/2021 08:12

just added 5788 @143.37p

Roll on the results in May and next week.

[ukgeorge] 07/4/2021 15:13

very tempted to put this years ISA allowance in these, struggling to find anything more compelling.

Although I think the zimbabwe projects might be a bit of drag on the share price currently.

[ukgeorge] 07/4/2021 09:34

just added 3638 shares at 143p.

Surely Q1 results are going to be exceptional with iridium at $6k/oz and Rhodium at $26k/oz

[podgyted] 06/4/2021 23:52

It'll crash down to 141 tomorrow - which was its trading range. On the other hand why it was trading there given the Rh, Pt and Pd prices I have absolutely no idea.

[freddie ferret] 06/4/2021 21:37

Trades data after close a bit interesting.

Not real?

[donald pond] 06/4/2021 09:38

Rather baffled by SLP up sharply and TGS a bit down. Grrr

[ukgeorge] 06/4/2021 09:20

Calendar of events
12 Apr 2021
FY2021 Q2 production report

27 May 2021
Interim Financial Results FY2021
outlook reminder

Looking forward to these

[cookie dough] 03/4/2021 15:06

Don't forget PGM usage in fuel cells in the EV revolution. Fuel cells will be needed for haulage etc.

[farnesbarnes] 01/4/2021 16:34

Mainstream EV adoption is 10 years off.

[ukgeorge] 31/3/2021 14:48

And then a few years later when we are all driving EVs and there is no demand for PGM's they can shut the mines in SA.......

[catsick] 31/3/2021 13:56

If you think that Norilisk have solved all their problems I would think again, come summer the melting permafrost problems will get worse, the mines are like Swiss cheese made of ice cream melting in the sun, huge reservoirs of water built up all over the place, there is a good chance over the next year or two these mines are fully abandoned and then the South African pgm mines can name their prices...

[croasdalelfc] 31/3/2021 10:29

My musings and calcs https://twitter.com/croasdale01/status/1377190453519527937?s=21

[croasdalelfc] 31/3/2021 07:51

Q2 is when the rhodium price kicked up . $4000 has been quoted as a basket price recently - THS get 85% after buyers discount.My numbers are averaged over half year - $300m nailed on with some possible upside to $310m

[bubloo] 30/3/2021 23:06

for first half
I have a ebitda of 176 million dollars
pgm revenue 200 to 205 million
aisc for pgm 80 million
pgm grss profit 120 million
chrome revenue 120 million
arxo metals 20 million
35 to 40% gpm for chrome makes a profit of 40 to 48 million
therefore gross profit is 160 t0 170 million dollars + arxo metals profits 5 miilion
capex 25 vulcan + 25 other capex
therefor profit 125 million - deduct tax and bee share

if prices stay as off today
second half pgm 275 to 280 million
chrome revnue 130 0 140 million
arxo revenues 20 million

[overeager] 30/3/2021 16:25

In the latest quarterly update they quoted spot PGM at the time of $2995 an oz so your numbers could turn out conservative Croasdalelfc. My model has annual revenue of $700m, but I'm an optimist by nature.

[croasdalelfc] 30/3/2021 11:20

H1 is in the bag - average PGM prices around $2500 an ounce. Add in approx 12% extra mined and buoyant Chrome prices then I get revenue for H1 over $300m. Upside is $310m .H1 2020 was $195m so probable 65% revenue increase in H1. Also Q1:Q2 breakdown is 40:60% so the real revenue upside will be felt in Q2 through to Q4 if prices remain high

[bubloo] 29/3/2021 17:19

that is 777000 pgm ounces. this is close to 5 times the annual production of Tharisa