Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 29/3/2021 12:30

yes saw that, still 22t of lost pgm production.

[sotolo] 29/3/2021 11:41

Nornickel Seem to be saying now will be back to full production by summer

[ukgeorge] 29/3/2021 09:35

surely they should announce an extradorinary dividend, roll on results being exceptional

[ukgeorge] 26/3/2021 11:01

just had a top up 4,896 @143.43p

Roll on these high prices translating into growing cash flows.

[sotolo] 24/3/2021 23:12

I make it a bit over $200m by the time tax, processing costs and extra capex taken off, but; obviously market doesn’t believe these extraordinary bubble prices can be sustained, but if prices quickly fall back a third, profits would be under $100m for a PE of 6 which is normal for Tharisa at this stage of the cycle. Now if this bubble was to be unusually sustained and market is wrong we shall all get rich, but market often predicts right

[farnesbarnes] 24/3/2021 19:52

Nornickel's flooded mines are now being estimated at 12 months to clean up, not the 3 to 4 months as initially advised. If true, will support PGM for a while longer.

[ukgeorge] 24/3/2021 15:29

Thanks Overeager

[overeager] 24/3/2021 13:16

UK George, I'm going to stick my head above the parapet based on my scribblings:

Assuming production is in the middle of guidance and that commodity prices remain broadly as is, I can see net profit of $325M for 2021 and EPS of getting on for $1.

To me these figures seen incredible and I keep re-checking my understanding, however, I can't be far out.

This is based on 160000oz of PGMs and 1.5mt of chrome concentrates.
Imagine what will happen when the near term goal of 2000000 of PGMs and 2mt of chrome concentrates is achieved.

[ukgeorge] 24/3/2021 08:48

Has anyone got any estimates on earnings per share?

I guess one thing holding the share price back is that there is little information on the new projects Karo and Salene and they are in Zimbabwe.

It would be good to have more information on the expected costs of these projects. My concern is that all the fcf is going to just be spent on projects

[rjmahan] 23/3/2021 21:38

Looks like I made a mistake in the basket calculation.

I will revise it.

Thanks for comment on refinery.

Less cheap than I thought it was but still very cheap.

[catsick] 23/3/2021 19:36

You should also consider that the refinery takes 15% of the value of the metals too so revenue is only 85% of the value of the pgm produced, at the moment the refinery is making 600 usd per basket oz revenue off a probably 100 usd cost, hence Tharisa looking into bringing this in house.

[croasdalelfc] 23/3/2021 12:18

Iridium shouldn't be ignored as it makes up 6% by revenue at current prices . My calcs make the 6E basket average for Q2 $3400. Tharisa get 85% of that. The 15% is the discount the buyer gets.I estimate revenue for H1 at $ 290m for metals and $17m other income : Gross $307m. 58% up on 2020.The split Q1:Q2 would be approx 45%:55%.

[croasdalelfc] 23/3/2021 12:09

In the middle it should say : Rhodium makes up 9.5%

[croasdalelfc] 23/3/2021 12:08

You have a circular pizza and cut it into 6 different size portions. Gold and ruthenium are the smallest portions and make up 14.4% and 0.2% of the big pizza. Rhodium makes up Now remove them and reassemble the pizza.You have a smaller pizza but Rhodium is now 12% of it.The 160000 Oz to be mined this year is the big pizza. :)

[martinfrench] 23/3/2021 11:05

i still dont quite see how when you move from 6e to 4e it jumps to 12%, must be some interesting rounding going on there......

but i was broadly correct

[ukgeorge] 23/3/2021 10:34

slide 5

hxxps://www.tharisa.com/pdf/investors/presentation/2021/20210310-this-is-tharisa-march-2021-ir-presentation-imc.pdf

[martinfrench] 23/3/2021 10:30

croas,

I was a bit confused by their rhodium percentage, but i think it comes down to if they are quoting the 6E basked or the 4E basket.

I remember that the rhodium percentage when i first compared ths to slp was around 9.5%, which i think must be the 6E

If using 4E it might welll be 12 (hopefully) but i'm sure ths were always behind slp, who had the highest.

maybe someone can clarify....

[donald pond] 23/3/2021 10:10

I am yet to be persuaded that there is any better guide for the long term price of a commodity than the current price. So while it may go higher or lower, the market price represents the consensus currently, and so is the best basis o calculate future revenues imo.

[overeager] 23/3/2021 10:00

Some very interesting posts on here - thanks to everyone involved.

Can I just check my understanding? It looks to me that if rhodium prices stay at current levels, revenues (and profits) increase by approx £250m. This is obviously not guaranteed long term, but from what I've read this could easily be a feature for some time to come.

Am I basically on the right track?

[croasdalelfc] 23/3/2021 09:45

Rob - THS basket has 5 metals and a dusting of gold . Your blog report highlights just 3. Your analysis states Rh is 12% . THS presentations say 9.5% . That one calculation moves your numbers 20%.You also don't include iridium 4.3% or Ruthenium 14.4%.Nice blog btw.

[catsick] 23/3/2021 09:20

Hi Rob, just had a look at your blog and comments on Ths, I would encourage you to pull the plug on your job and try punting full time, I did 13 years ago in my late 30s and never regretted it. There are not many cheaper stocks than THS but if you like Russia then Etalon is worth a look and on the o+g side I3 is about as under valued as THS once you understand the recent transactions...

[martinfrench] 22/3/2021 21:28

Ok, thanks

Mcro is microfocus, take a look, it could be your sort of thing

[rjmahan] 22/3/2021 17:11

I do low level data analysis - something nice and undemanding so I can focus on stocks.... At this point it costs me money but its nice not to depend on stocks and is psychologically good in a down month.

Interest in Russia - its very, very cheap and mispriced. I UK/US/EU many overpriced stocks.

Never heard of mcro.

[martinfrench] 22/3/2021 12:20

its the man himself....

got a couple of questions if you dont mind.....

may i ask what is the day job you are thinking of giving up ?
why so much interest in russia ?
as your into value investing (as i am), didnt notice mcro in your portfolio ?

[rjmahan] 22/3/2021 10:59

Thanks ,,😃