Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[eastbourne1982] 22/1/2015 13:21

Hope so, I'm lining up a big short at anything approaching £1.40, the FTSE is dragging TW up, when the FTSE corrects TW will drop back to the £1.20's.

[doyden] 22/1/2015 12:54

TW is flying today. Let's see if we can nudge 140 again.

[gbh2] 21/1/2015 21:13

Would have been criminal if it failed on a day the ftse100 was over 100 !

[doyden] 21/1/2015 15:51

You got your wish Homeboy. We're back in the 130s again.Let's hope it sticks.

[homeboy35] 21/1/2015 13:17

Come on Wimpey. Break 130p again!

[homeboy35] 19/1/2015 17:07

and another 3p today!

[doyden] 19/1/2015 13:00

UK house prices rise unexpectedly according to Rightmove.http://www.cityam.com/207407/uk-house-prices-rise-unexpectedly-january-stamp-duty-to-rescueLow interest rates with no sign of any rush to increase them plus continued demand for more housing. I'd say there is still more to come from TW. Holding.

[homeboy35] 19/1/2015 12:45

Taffee is back.

Must be time for a top up!

[taffee] 19/1/2015 09:00

Chances are though the housing bubble is bursting from a great height

Now is not the time to buy property related or stocks in general...quite
How anyone thinks this is the start of a cycle is beyond comprehension
Risks are severe as every prop imaginable is keeping prices in a bubble yet
Prices are starting to fall

[bluerunner] 17/1/2015 19:45

Eastbourne, I don't disagree with you on miners and oilers, particularly with your careful use of the term "sooner or later". But, aside from a mini hike at the end of last week, they still have potential to fall further. I'd be waiting for some stabilisation of those sectors first. They are on my watch list.

There are some potential game-changing events on the horizon - QE, Greek elections,UK elections and Spanish elections later in the year. This is likely to create volatility. Other than house-builders and property stocks, I'm largely in cash waiting to take my chance.

We'll have to agree to disagree on house-builders. I still see potential for them to outperform the index over the 2-3 year time scale.

[1gw] 17/1/2015 19:31

This is the relevant bit of the Telegraph article:

"What shares have you been buying and selling over the past three months?

I have been buying housebuilder shares, which I think are in a real sweet spot at the moment. Interest rates look like they will be on hold for another year and politically it is a sector that all the main parties want to support. As well as helping first time buyers it will also keep property prices moving upwards. This will prove a boon for housebuilders, who will continue getting new orders to build more homes, which is why I have been adding to Taylor Wimpey and Crest Nicholson."

[eastbourne1982] 17/1/2015 19:30

Where do you see the share price in two to three years ? As things stand I'd say the share is fair value at best, it certainly isn't good value and if sentiment dips there is plenty of downside, I'd be more inclined to think sentiment will weaken within the next year, the housing market is still way too artificial with ridiculous interest rates etc, interest rates won't go down any further and when they do creep up it obviously won't have a positive impact on the likes of TW.

Regarding your final question, I'll give you a couple of examples, sooner or later the miners are going to be worth buying, sentiment towards them is shocking at the moment much like it was towards the likes of TW around 2008 - 2009, when sentiment is terrible that is the time to buy, same with oil companies etc, BP was worth buying last week at around the £3.80 mark, it bounced on Friday to £4.10 - £4.15 so I would be waiting for another retrace there before I took a decent position.

[bluerunner] 17/1/2015 19:18

Well the inference was that he was actively buying now due to what he described as a sweet spot for house builders. This was based on their continuing profitability; potential delays to interest rate hikes and favourable outlook whatever the election results. I'm just reporting what I read.

Nothing personal but, as a holder, I hope you get your fingers burnt (very badly) if you do short TW. No offence :)

"As a long term investment, I don't see how it stacks up." Well, that depends on your definition of long term, doesn't it? I think it's got 2-3 years of momentum albeit at a slowing pace.

Which other sectors do you prefer for growth over that time period?

[eastbourne1982] 17/1/2015 18:27

I presume he is well stocked up on TW shares ??

The time to buy house builders was 2009 - 2012 when they were going for relative peanuts due to the fear of the market, a lot of that fear has diminished however it will come back at some point, the shares may edge up to the £1.40 level again however as a long term investment I don't see how it stacks up.

I don't have a position in TW however if they were to hit late £1.30's again I would be tempted to go short.

[bluerunner] 17/1/2015 18:05

Good write up in the Daily Telegraph today. Interview with Ed Legget of SL who is bullish on house builders - TW and CRST in particular.

[homeboy35] 17/1/2015 12:13

Nice move up from 122p to 125p.

Hopefully can kick on next week.

[gbh2] 15/1/2015 09:31

Here we go again, run the price down and use the cash for other things until it's time to buy back in the run up to the July special dividend!

[gbh2] 14/1/2015 12:45

and Barrats

[homeboy35] 14/1/2015 12:21

LOL!

Big down day on the markets, so actually doing relatively OK.

The only one bucking the trend on my radar is TSCO

[taffee] 14/1/2015 11:46

if there is no bubble then why do we have emergency rates near zero,help to buy
and money printing?

they built huge amounts of property in Ireland spain and other based on demand which mysteriously disappeared when the bubble burst

there was amazingly no lack of supply in 2008/2009 before they slashed rates

these are no normal times and anything can happen as we have seen in the collapse of the oil price...beware and bank profits

[optomistic] 14/1/2015 10:12

gbh2, you should be very grateful of my forecast as if all goes as usual after my predictions the share price will go in the opposite direction....therefore look forward to 140! LOL

[gbh2] 14/1/2015 09:42

lol, if you were any more optimistic you'd be a manic depressive ;)

Barrat's Update much more engaging than TWs imo!

[optomistic] 14/1/2015 08:39

TW looks to be heading to lower ground.
115 perhaps possible.