Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[hillbrown] 26/2/2014 14:09

interims for bdev and rdw.

Of the 18 stocks in my portfolio only two are marginally up today. The whole market is harry drifters. Easyjet currently down 5% and ITV despite good results down 3%.
I certainly dont want to be out of housebuilders at this stage of the cycle (hardly begun).

[tiger20] 26/2/2014 13:52

I think investors are looking 9/12 months ahead and fearfull of interest rate increases and thats whats shaken the housing builders,not just TW.results.

Why mark Barratts & Redrow plus Persimmon down on TW results day.

I hold BDEV RDW & TW but think returns on share price over next 12 months could be muted look 2 years out and things may be different imo.

Lets see what happens to BDEV & RDW on tomorrows results

[gbh2] 26/2/2014 12:41

I'll have some more if we see 120p, excellent mid term prospect imo ;))

[careful] 26/2/2014 12:38

these are hugely overpriced.
got too far ahead.
with all of that taxpayer help and cheap money, they pay a dividend of less than 0.5%.

net assets of 69p against a share price of 120p.

better value elsewhere.

[koetser] 26/2/2014 11:43

Topped up on Barratts 10 mins ago easy bet for tomorrow imho

[bluerunner] 26/2/2014 11:33

Last night there were two huge buys on TW. and BDEV. Add the timing of them to the news today and, unless you are a short term trader, the conviction to hold / add should be strong.

[aquadave99] 26/2/2014 11:19

How have other house builders performed this week after results? Should give an indication of where the share price will go.In my opinion it is a classic buy on rumour sell on news type of day.

[speedsgh] 26/2/2014 09:26

hillbrown - Thanks for your response + confirmation. Some will naturally not be willing to wait until July 2015 for a 5.5% dividend, such is the short-term nature of the modern day 'investor'.

I also note that Simon Thompson in Investors Chronicle has TW. in his 2014 Bargain Portfolio + he pointed out recently that Peel Hunt were expecting a cash return to shareholders of 10p in 2014 & 12p in 2015. If some jumped in on the back of that article expecting those levels of cash returns, then they will obviously be disappointed + may well head for the exit in the short term.

Conversely with the housing market looking set fair + the prospect of continued low interest/savings rates for a while, TW. would appear to be as good a place as any to park one's money with a reasonable yield on offer alongside the likelihood of at least modest capital appreciation. Aimho.

[uknighted] 26/2/2014 09:18

Avatar is in blue - unlike mine, non-paying but an ADVFN shareholder!!

[hillbrown] 26/2/2014 09:17

How do you identify a 'paying subscriber' ?

[hillbrown] 26/2/2014 09:16

MarketMakers doing a very good job tree shaking triggers.

[uknighted] 26/2/2014 09:14

"We have performed strongly in 2013 both from a trading perspective and in the land market and this coupled with the improvement in profitability forecast as a result of the improved quality of the landbank, and the capital requirements for the short term has led the Board to recommend a special dividend with c.GBP50 million payable (1.54 pence per share) on 3 July 2014 to shareholders on the register on 6 June 2014 and GBP200 million (c.6.16 pence per share) in July 2015, the latter subject to shareholder approval."

[battue2] 26/2/2014 09:07

hillbrown,a good informed post. Have you noticed how many large and "knowledgable" posters
on here are not paying subscribers :)

[battue2] 26/2/2014 09:00

Plenty of support at 120p, i think we will see it sometime this week and a good
chance to top up.People will want the special divs so future pionts in time to aim at.

[hillbrown] 26/2/2014 08:56

speedsgh,

Your 'estimates' are correct and appear at the very end of the results statement.

A tad below market expectations (which will adjust) but with a a total divi based on currently declared amounts of 6.85p (assuming no increase in the ordinary divi although there will be), at 124p it will pay a 5.5% divi.

It then becomes an income stock. It aint going to happen.

The price will rise by July 2015 to bring the total divi to around a 4% maximum which will be at a price of 171p.

Absolutely no reason for an investor to sell. Day traders are another story.

[valedo] 26/2/2014 08:51

I fail to understand how anybody can suggest that housebuilders are not going to outperform over next year or two minimum. Basic fundamentals inform us that much. Unless they know something the rest of us don't. 'course its not going to be in a straight line. I don't trade much anymore but these and BDEV can be pretty good day trades with their (almost!) predictable volatility.

[speedsgh] 26/2/2014 08:42

Has anyone worked out what the planned special dividends will be? £50m in 2014, £200m in 2015 with more to come in the following years.

According to my records number of shares in issue is currently 3,244,220,924.

£50m special div in 2014 = 1.54p/share
£200m special div in 2015 = 6.16p/share

You of course have to add the ordinary maintenance dividend (currently 0.69p p.a.) to this.

If these calculations are correct, by my reckoning these returns to shareholders are a bit below what the market expected which may well account for the initial share price weakness in response to the results.

The business itself appears in rude health which should continue to support further share price gains longer term. Aimho.

Would appreciate any feedback on my estimates if I have made any mistakes.

[gbh2] 26/2/2014 08:34

lol, so sure had to post twice to attempt conviction!

[el1te] 26/2/2014 08:33

The likelihood that this closes below 120 is extremely small in my opinion. Solid results and this is merely another dip in a long-term uptrend. Price movement not being helped by the wider market either.

No worries over here - It has been on a strong run up and the medium-term technical outlook remains sound.

[ch27] 26/2/2014 08:33

Looks like a good opportunity to add today, before it bounces back up and keeps on going up!

[baracuda2] 26/2/2014 08:31

I never learn, I should always sell pre results!!!!

[nick9013] 26/2/2014 08:30

1.30 more like 1.20 if your lucky RAMP

[nick9013] 26/2/2014 08:27

I know where this is going. Bailed out

[gbh2] 26/2/2014 08:21

Needs to clear out the traders and get some new broker targets circulating.