Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[hillbrown] 13/2/2014 18:54

Delays increase prices.

No material effect on the results to be reported.

Concentration on projects with 'roofs on' in such circumstance.

Chill.

[gbh2] 13/2/2014 16:53

I can well imagine that and the way the weather systems keep on coming that "moment" could be quite a long one :))

[antonz] 13/2/2014 16:50

this year's results will be OK but if they say next year's results may be affected the price could drop a bit. Got a friend in elec distribution laying cables says new builds not priority at the moment.

[gbh2] 13/2/2014 16:45

Must have had an impact in certain areas, but that'll reflect in figures later in the year imo.

[antonz] 13/2/2014 16:37

does anyone think weather will get mentioned in the statement? loads of projects running behind schedule.

[homeboy35] 13/2/2014 16:01

seems to like 120!

[homeboy35] 12/2/2014 19:44

These still have some way go according to the 'experts'

[supermarky] 12/2/2014 19:11

I have decided to buy some more with the run up to results.

[homeboy35] 12/2/2014 18:29

up she rises!

[bluerunner] 12/2/2014 12:08

Nice update in today's Investors Chronicle (Simon Thompson) on line (and will be in Friday's paper edition) reiterating the likelihood of both Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments to gain promotion to the FTSE 100 in March.

He cites weakness in William Hill, Amec and G4S as factors that will benefit the promotion of both TW. and BDEV - with all the likely upsides from March.

[hillbrown] 12/2/2014 10:33

thursday's.

[n111ndy] 12/2/2014 10:31

naed is that regarding interest rates? If so, that was
06.02.14 Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion

[naed] 12/2/2014 09:00

Anybody know what time the BOE make their announcement today?

[koetser] 11/2/2014 20:02

Looks like it should be another good day tomorrow :-)

[hillbrown] 11/2/2014 15:06

It would be nice to finish above 121 today after having touched 121.3 but a finish over 120 would satisfy. Full year results due two weeks tomorrow.

[supermarky] 11/2/2014 09:15

It has not crashed though 120 yet. Lets see what happens over the next few days. I would like it to close above 120.

[homeboy35] 11/2/2014 08:33

crashed through 120!!!!

[gbh2] 07/2/2014 21:36

Knock, as I mentioned earlier today I'll halve my holding again ca 119-120p what you do with your holding doesn't worry me one iota because it'll make absolutely no difference to how much I make or lose at the end of this financial year.

If you don't like my comments then feel free to apply the Filter in much the same way as I do with numpties that add nothing but personal comments to the threads I visit.

[naed] 07/2/2014 21:23

He's harmless enough. After all he now owns an 1/8 of what he had last year:-)

[knocknock] 07/2/2014 21:01

Of course, mouse trigger happy gbh2 will no doubt be declaring he didn't sell as and when STs conservative valuation is exceeded.

Fair value IMO remains closer to £2.40 given the soon to be announced massive housing expansion on swathes of green belt land in the South East, much of which is under TWs remit. For those of you attuned to the politics and reasoning behind holding up some of the biggest housing schemes this country has ever seen will no doubt be laughing their socks off ( as I am) at the ignorance of those without the foresight to be very long and strong here.

If there is anymore room I can find in my rather large boots I know exactly what it is being filled with.

;;-)

[fella01] 07/2/2014 18:36

whatever happens im keeping mine , just hope along with everyone else that they go up uowards and onwards

[bluerunner] 07/2/2014 17:06

A £1.2 million pound buy at 4.35pm should see this motor up on Monday.

[figis] 07/2/2014 16:22

From Simon Thompson. Todays article Investors Chronicle

Main: Housebuilder

Share price: 112.5p

Bid-offer spread: 112.4p-112.5p

Market value: £3.6bn

Website:www.taylorwimpey.co.uk

Over the years, the housebuilding sector has proved a rich hunting ground for my bargain shares. This is mainly because accounting rules stipulate that stocks of new homes and land are both held as current assets on the balance sheet which means that non-current assets represent a much lower proportion of total assets compared with other companies. As a result this gives the companies much higher bargain ratings. It also helps that my annual portfolios are published early in the year during a period when the sector has historically performed incredibly well as I have pointed out on numerous occasions in the past.

True, the sector has performed fantastically well over the past five years, and has been a top performer over the past 12 months. However, I still feel there is scope for the FTSE 250 homebuilders to outperform their benchmark index over the coming months, both in absolute and relative terms. Interestingly, there is a technical catalyst that could come into play in the weeks ahead to drive share prices higher as both FTSE 250 constituents Taylor Wimpey (TW.) and Barratt Developments (BDEV) are on the cusp of entry into the FTSE 100 index.

Currently, both companies have identical valuations at £3.64bn placing them as the 96th largest company listed on the London main market by market capitalisation. To gain automatic entry into the FTSE 100 at the FTSE International Committee Quarterly Review, they would need to be ranked 90 or above by market value. That slot is held by Rexam with a market value of £3.96bn. So with the benefit of the seasonal tailwind behind shares of housebuilders, and with both companies due to report results in the first quarter, it is quite feasible that Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments could enter the FTSE 100 at the end of March. In turn, fund managers tracking the blue chip index will have no choice but to buy their shares which should drive the prices up higher. Importantly, the fundamental case for investing holds too.

In a pre-close trading update ahead of full-year results on 28 February, Taylor Wimpey revealed that the company sold 11,696 homes last year, a 7 per cent rise over 2012, helped in part by the demand created from the government's Help to Buy mortgage lending scheme. Average selling prices on private completions are up too, increasing 7 per cent to £210,000, reflecting a shift to better sales locations and higher market prices. The net effect of this is that operating margins have been rising sharply and analyst Clyde Lewis at broking house Peel Hunt expects the company's margin to be around 13.8 per cent last year, up 2.5 percentage points on 2012.

In turn, with revenues up from £2bn to about £2.3bn in the 12-month period, the combination of higher selling prices, more completions and better margins are forecast to drive pre-tax profits up almost 50 per cent to £275m. On this basis, expect 2013 EPS of 6.5p. And there is little reason to expect this positive news story to grind to halt at this point as guidance is for another 200 to 300 basis point improvement in margins in 2014 which fully supports Peel Hunt's pre-tax profit estimate of £390m on revenues of £2.62bn, to produce EPS of 9.4p. The respective figures for 2015 are revenues of £2.9bn, profits about £500m and EPS of 11.8p.

So, with Taylor Woodrow's shares trading at 115p, the forward PE ratio is only 10 for 2015. That's hardly excessive considering the multiple tailwinds of easy monetary policy, supportive government housing schemes, UK population growth and net migration that are driving demand at the same time that local government planning policies are holding back supply. This helps explain why the company's forward order book has risen by over a quarter year on year to £1.2bn, or the equivalent of 6,627 homes.

The story gets even better when you consider that Taylor Wimpey has a land bank of about 65,000 plots, or six years supply, and a strategic land bank of 110,000 plots, or 10 years' supply. The board have been reviewing these land holdings and now believe that a six-year land bank is excessive and one closer to five years will suffice given the huge strategic land bank. The obvious implication of reducing the land bank by about 12,000 plots, equating to £2.5bn of house sales at current selling prices, is that a huge amount of cash is going to be generated over the coming years and returned to shareholders. To put this into some perspective, Peel Hunt expects Taylor Wimpey to generate free cash of between £1.7bn to £1.8bn over the next four years, the equivalent of 58p a share or more than half the current share price. News of the scale of the capital return will be announced on Friday, 28 February.

What this also means is that Taylor Wimpey shares are underpriced on 1.65 times book value since the board are in effect committed to turning part of the land bank into cash and returning it to shareholders. Peel Hunt are expecting a cash return of 10p a share this year and a further 12p a share in 2015, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively.

Trading on a bargain rating of 0.46, I estimate fair value around 160p based on the current sales trends and expectation of a 58p a share cash return by 2018.

[naed] 07/2/2014 15:47

question is gbh2...............did you go down to quarter or still at half?