Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[koetser] 19/2/2014 10:53

Hill brown

2/300p and I reckon I could retire very comfortably. :-)

Not that I really need to worry about money

[hillbrown] 19/2/2014 10:18

I agree, thats why I said not going to reach a fiver.....

Fact is that TW. is a very different animal in a very different environment than when it reached its previous peak. George Wimpey and Taylor Woodrow merged in 2007 just prior to the peak. The balance sheet was nonetheless stretched whereas now the company is getting debt free and barely into the current cycle.

I would be very surprised if the price failed to reach 2/300p in the current cycle.

[gbh2] 19/2/2014 10:04

There were significantly less TW shares in the market in 2004 so it's a stretch of the imagination to think the share price will achieve those heights at any time in the near future, my expectations (after dilution) 150 to 190p in this cycle.

[hillbrown] 19/2/2014 09:36

Too low, way to go!




these are monthly from 2004. Not suggesting they are going to reach a fiver but its still very early in the cycle. Recent trend line = buy and hold.

[koetser] 18/2/2014 22:09

My target is 160 which is the same as IC mag

[koetser] 18/2/2014 22:09

My target is 160 which is the same as IC mag

[aspers] 18/2/2014 21:45

Moving some of my TW holding into CRST.......it's the one builder that so far has lagged behind.......very good news around the corner and I think about to take off.

[nabzi786] 18/2/2014 21:30

Guys, what is your target for this gem of a stock?

[gbh2] 18/2/2014 16:31

HB, I got lucky in 2000 after my first punt went ballistic, 50p to £14 in two years, many of those that took the same punt hung onto their shares whilst the share price went back down to 33p during the following 2 years.

I try for 5 to 20% these days but as mentioned above, it's now a pastime, mainly whilst researching my Family Tree.

I'll now hang on here until 30% on the rise or 15% on the pull back,

Good luck to you too, :))

[homeboy35] 18/2/2014 16:16

gbh2,

I think it's a risky business trying to trade in and out.

for example,when it spiked to 124, looked like a good time to get out.

But it has spike again to 127. Maybe should get out now, and back in later, but I just think it's better to hold and add on dips.

That's what i have done anyway, and it's been very profitable.

sounds like one or two others have got rich off the back of this surge in housebuilders.

Good luck to you!

[koetser] 18/2/2014 16:09

This share just keeps giving :-)

[hillbrown] 18/2/2014 16:09

WOW!! Its a brave man who forecasts housebuilders as a steady investment for the next seven years. You may be right, but 24 months ahead is enuff for me and I'll reassess periodically.

I can think of several things which could put them way of track in tow or three years - punitive taxes on undeveloped landbanks, new building techniques allowing new entrants to the market, increasing mortgage rates etc etc.............

Dont get me wrong, I'm a strong holder but seven years out is mega distance.

[knocknock] 18/2/2014 15:43

Hb, I think house builders are a steady investment up to 2021. We are a long way from attaining the dividends seen prior to 2008/9 and indeed still a way off the highs of the boom years.

What we should see, as we are seeing in house prices, is previous highs being excelled and a new floor put in place prior to the next big crash. If the cycle was a twelve hour clock I don't think we would be at 4 o clock atm

The biggest gains(percentage wise) will be made in the last few months of the bull run as the share price goes parabolic. Again, I think we are a good few years away from that and should just enjoy the ride along the way.

[hillbrown] 18/2/2014 15:34

I am certainly very overweight housebuilders, notably tw. and bdev.

My key reasons are the general turn in the economy, land shortages on islands,
unfettered immigration into a limited space, lack of skilled labour, inability to build sufficient volume to catch up with demand commensurate with stable prices etc etc. I could go on.

Based on 2014/15 estimates housebuilders are far from overpriced so its a one way street for a least a year or more. As a bonus the may start paying decent divi's or even start making special payments ala Persimmon as they are all running short of debt and getting cash rich.

They will peak when they overshoot!!

[gbh2] 18/2/2014 15:22

They're certainly a good bet.

I've done ok with TW this last four years, this years a bit of a pain due to the x4 CGT requirement, but I've brought that on myself by quadrupling my maximum punt, I had hoped never to have to complete the SA108 for again but I guess its just part of the game!!

[koetser] 18/2/2014 15:13

GBH & HB

I have put all my eggs into bdev an tw. At the end of December as I believe it is a no brainer due to housing market and stats of house builder performance in the first quarter

[gbh2] 18/2/2014 14:56

HB, I often try to sell at the top to buy back cheaper, seldom successful but this is a pastime and it's no good regretting what may have been.

I currently hold a quarter of what I had a few months ago, been in and out since the Share dump in 2009 but I seldom put more than 20K in any one punt so the figures discussed above are totally alien to me!

I let my Financial Manager take care of that kind of cash whilst I try to beat his %age each year :))

[hillbrown] 18/2/2014 14:42

GBH2. You are right. And some folks forget what they have posted previously.
There is an element of "bigging it up" by some posters. Other posters have an uncanny knack of selling at the top and buying back cheaper. Sometimes they are they same people.............

[knocknock] 18/2/2014 13:27

Like shooting fish in a barrel.............with a Gatling Gun

;;-)

[koetser] 18/2/2014 13:15

Kazz

Actually 28K for my bin actually as have 200,000 bdev as we'll.

Moneybags,

Tell me about it

[moneybags] 18/2/2014 13:04

you beat me Koester...I only get a measly 5000 on a penny(I like round numbers as I used to be a farmer.!)

The C.G.T. is scary.Can't afford to sell them....!

Aye,Moneybags

[kazz] 18/2/2014 12:51

10.5 K extra in your bin today Koester :)

[koetser] 18/2/2014 10:08

Aspers agreed :-)

[aspers] 18/2/2014 09:35

Gbh.....we can still be somewhere warm enjoying the sights whilst we still look after our own investments.....never trust a financial manager......Last March I took a considerable sum out of an annual bond that was paying me 2% per annum, I decided to buy TW at 73p and put my own target of 140p on it by March 2014......based on that who needs a financial manager? :-)