Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 14:43

Jugears/Becky

Swearing only weakens your comments. It shows you're over committed here and losing money. Although being 26p or £1/4m down, it's understandable you'll be very upset.

You've been buying all the way down from 170p, whilst I stated I shorted at 168p.

Who's made more money shorting, trading hyped sector then shorted again or those who kept loading up all the way down from 170p?

[beckers2008] 06/11/2024 14:19

DvD,

I qoute you...

"You've been ramping away on here all year telling everyone the only way is up"

Really! Prove it, show me one of my posts, you won't, like you won't show me your imaginary Short contract note, lol!

You called it wrong, unlike me who sold TW. and made a tidy profit plus 3 x 8+% yield dividend payments.

You are slashing around, just like the mug-punter you are, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 06/11/2024 14:07

86p berk2008? Ok, that's lower than my call, but if you really believe we can get there, I'm willing to accept it as a possibility.

[essentialinvestor] 06/11/2024 14:07

PSN also flagging some evidence of materials cost inflation for 2025 had slightly unsettled the sevtor.

I would prefer TW to PSN. TW, for me, is in a quality league above PSN. Other might see this differently.

[danvandan] 06/11/2024 14:05

Berk2008, you're trying to hold back the tide here. The share price is finally catching up with the fundamentals. Btw, the Conservatives are no longer in government. Please try to keep up.

[danvandan] 06/11/2024 14:01

Pigsear, your claim to be adding 'at various prices' does sound very hollow when you said the same while the price was 150p+ and then told us last week that you DIDN'T BUY ANY over 150p. I would say that you're merely 'ramping' in the hope that some poor fool - maybe berk2008 - will buy, along with other naive fools, and try to stop the precipitous fall here.

Trading update from Spinning Jennie Daly on Monday - it will NOT be good news. GLA. GFY. ATB.

[beckers2008] 06/11/2024 14:00

All of my calls relating to the BoE during Conservative rule have been correct and all that followed my advice to buy here at 86p have been handsomely rewarded.

"Red Rachel's £40bn tax raid, inflation busting budget, all bets are now off!

Labour have always been a tax and spend party. Expect more tax rises in the mid term"

[danvandan] 06/11/2024 13:52

Pigsear is turning a deaf un' and would prefer to talk about TLY. Good idea chum, just look away. £1 soon.

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 13:20

Lefrene,

Exactly. It's that debt crisis/affordability/credit crunch that the realists have been mentioning.

Re Landbanks. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a windfall tax on HBs and/or land banks are compulsory purchased. HBs can do nothing if the govn goes down that route.

[jugears] 06/11/2024 13:19

And then we have TLY a company with a large debt & falling cash reserves, should be worth 4p!

[lefrene] 06/11/2024 13:02

We are in an unmentioned credit squeeze, housing requires vast amounts of credit. Something in short supply commands a premium, lets see where rates go outside of the BoE base rate.

Starmer is hitting the poorest hardest, he plainly doesn't understand that taking money off the poorest hits the wider economy the quickest. £1 extra on bus fares is £500 a year taken off a basic wage earner using the bus to get to their minimum wage job. That £200 off pensioners, is £200 instantly taken out of the economy. Both are monies that would have contributed 20% vat, so the State gets some of it returned.

There may be high demand for property, but if you can't get the dosh, you can't buy unless prices come down. My guess the big builders will produce fewer units and sit on their landbanks, best hope that Starmer doesn't tax the unrealised value in those landbanks. Starmer is plainly a totalitarian, his 'mission' trumps all else. He could compulsorily purchase landbanks to build council houses. Interesting times all round.

[essentialinvestor] 06/11/2024 12:49

Yield on the UK 30-YR has increased from around 4.35% in mid September to currently yield over 5%.

[beckers2008] 06/11/2024 12:48

Stop talking nonsense Sikhthetech, You shorted in October 2018 and lost your shirt.
You have been smarting ever since, lol!

Now, tell me, when is your each and every year, for the last 6 years, house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 12:32

Jugears

"it doesn't really matter when rates fall the fact that they are falling is enough to stimulate the market"

The rates started to fall in August, 3 months ago!!!.
Schools have returned from their hols (another excuse you used for HB share price falling)
US Election over (Yet another excuse you used for HB share price falling)

Yet HBs share price are falling. Perhaps you need to rethink your excuses!!!


As per my assertion, simple question...who's making more money. Those who shorted, traded up and shorted or those who bought all the way down from 170p++??

[kreature] 06/11/2024 12:27

Stamp duty threshold to fall all the way back to 125k in April. So um, more cash that doesn’t exist required to buy a hutch next year? Brutal 2025 for builders imo
142s now jugs . But 180 in your head, so all good

[kreature] 06/11/2024 12:21

As sikh highlighted….

Jugears, "the budget was bad for any company that employs staff & hasn't really made any difference to Hb's"

Persimmon today,
‘ We ……..are working closely with our supply chain to manage our costs, which will also be impacted by ………;employer national insurance increases announced in the recent Budget.

[jugears] 06/11/2024 12:18

Yep & be past right back to the customer, I see TLY have fallen today as well! we disgust taxes the other day, a quarter point cut in rates wipes out any tax's rises, at the end of the day wages have risen substantially & house sales are increasing, there will be additional costs for every one single company about £5-600 so I would expect this to have about a £3 million impact to PSN & less for TW, not really megga bucks in the grand scheme of things & take in to account houses prices rising which will more than cover that, it doesn't really matter when rates fall the fact that they are falling is enough to stimulate the market, once we have the TU & rate decision tomorrow I'm sure we will see Tw's share price slowly rise back to £1.70.

[kreature] 06/11/2024 12:10

All bets are off with interest rates since budget.

And the share price still falling jugs 143 now

Rate cut tomorrow would just mean that something must be wrong, and needs fixing, imo

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 12:04

Jugears,

"the budget was bad for any company that employs staff & hasn't really made any difference to Hb's"

The budget was only a week ago!!! PSN 1st to report since the budget and they have already said the NI increase will impact them!!!
I expect that trend of NI increases to impact HBs, hospitality, retailers etc


"not necessarily for TLY could be 2-3 years yet before any changes to NHS"

TLY (NHS healthcare provider), reported H1 today. Healthcare doesn't stop regardless of the economic/political situation, everyone still needs it. If changes take 2-3 years then it's STILL good for TLY as NHS will have to continue awarding contract extensions until any changes are implimented. TLY have already stated they are winning more contracts since the GE.


"on the other hand a rate drop tomorrow will have an immediate effect to TW. "

Why? The huge increases in Tsxes impact mortgage holders. Huge increases in taxes negate interest rate reductions. Those hundreds of thousands still on lower fixed rates, will still pay significantly more.

Plus there's inflationary pressure, so after this week, I think BoE will hold off on another cut until next year.

[jugears] 06/11/2024 11:53

Build cost have been negative since December so bound to go up especially with demand increasing! the budget was bad for any company that employs staff & hasn't really made any difference to Hb's maybe be good for NHS one day but not necessarily for TLY could be 2-3 years yet before any changes to NHS on the other hand a rate drop tomorrow will have an immediate effect to TW. with interest rates falling & house sales/builds increasing this has to be one of the best recovery stocks across the markets, I don't think in the next few months I will have any regrets adding house building shares. each to our own I've got plenty of money to invest yet!
The budget was bad however for greedy landlords that want to build an empire on borrowed money with current high rents its still very viable if like me your properties are paid for! with less cash housing association will be buying less housing stock , so much for affordable housing!
Unfortunately a lot of investors don't see the bigger picture, when demand picks up supply will not be able to ramp up production fast enough to meet that demand & as rates fall house prices will rocket. Its not necessarily the cost of buying a house more the cost of long term payments that is holding some people back, My friend said that during the half term week there was a marked improvement in people visiting his website & coming through the door.

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 11:35

Kreature,

Absolutely. Build Cost inflation impacting PSN and HBs.

The budget was bad for HBs, good for NHS.

All as expected.


sikhthetech - 31 Oct 2024 - 12:25:29 - 19294 of 19414
The share price reaction here has been as predicted.

The budget is great for NHS and TLY, company which becky and Jugears were desperately deramping.
Everyone needs healthcare.

The budget is bad for housing market as b2l investors sell.

[kreature] 06/11/2024 10:48

To save you looking, PSN down over 7% now jugs , and still falling

[kreature] 06/11/2024 10:33

‘ Very positive tu from psn in my opinion,beggers belief why it's down today but added some today ’

I just spelled it out for you above jugs……..

2025 ‘cost increases ‘ :
‘build cost inflation’
‘new building regulations’
and ‘national insurance increases’