Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[baracuda2] 18/10/2024 13:50

Talking rubbish again, you are the only one I haven't filtered yet but that can soon be put right, you are so negative, I bet you are great fun to be around.

[uhound] 18/10/2024 13:46

Kreature is right. Tenants can't pay what they don't have.

House prices will only rise when wage growth rises. There comes a point when you hit a ceiling - we are there now. Interest rates need to fall or wages need to rise.

However, job creation is not there, the economy is not growing. At best we flatline for a number of years.

Affordability is what it's all about. Not supply and demand like some think!

[kreature] 18/10/2024 13:39

It’ll all end in one digital currency. We all know that

[sikhthetech] 18/10/2024 13:12

There you go, as I, Lefrene, Sunshine etc assertions, Govn in huge debt. They need to change their own debt rules so they can borrow even more to fund projects

Huge borrowing to max, change the rules to borrow more, huge tax increases as well.

Tax, borrow more and spend.





Debt rule to change to fund major projects

"At the moment, the amount of money the government can borrow for investment is restrained by the amount of debt it has.

There is a self-imposed rule that debt – the total amount the government owes – must fall in five years’ time.

Many rich countries have similar rules, to keep government finances under control and maintain credibility with financial markets and taxpayers.

But the Treasury has effectively confirmed it will loosen the target in order to borrow billions more to invest in a range of major projects."





sikhthetech - 16 Jan 2024 - 21:10:10 - 17413 of 19207
clarky5150,

That is the point I and others, inc Rwlly are making.

Demand has slowed, hence why the HBs reduced number builds. That is down to affordability.

One of the reasons given by HBs for not building enough is planning laws. That is just a feeble excuse because the real reason is there isn't enough demand due to affordability.

There is a huge debt crisis affecting international govn, local authorities, businesses and individuals.


Why do HBs say to the govn that it's planning laws and not lack of demand?

It would be good if the CMA's investigation into HBs concludes that there needs to be tighter regulation of HBs.

[jugears] 18/10/2024 09:09

Sikh,Governments cant set profit margins, the price of all houses are set by the buyer at the end of the day, With the huge shortage of homes I very much doubt any government present or future will want to alienate those that can build those houses, what the government need to do is provide hb's with incentives to build those houses,with the low volume we build in this country now I would expect house prices to double in the next 10-15 years, The Government really need to decide how they can fund affordable housing particularly for renters, housing association are saying that its not cost effective building homes to rent & will be building far less in the future, & unless private landlords own property that is mortgage free(like myself) its also not cost effective, sadly there is know easy solution to create affordable homes, the decline in the numbers built in the last couple of years has made the situation worse, prior to the GFC houses were built on spec now they are sold of plan or basically to order so we were never going to see a housing crash this time, Imeo people have far more disposable income & far less debt than say 15 years ago.

[beckers2008] 18/10/2024 08:24

"Kreature - 10 Nov 2023 - 08:25:58 - 4893 of 5676
Well I'm shorting the lot PSN, BWY, RDW"

Lol, just lol!

[kreature] 18/10/2024 02:00

And where will the money come from for increased rents and new fake freeholds Becky ? Annual wage growth 4.9%, boe base rate at 5%, and food was up by 7% year to Jan and has kept rising. Budget about to fk everyone over. Where’s the money tree Becks?

[beckers2008] 17/10/2024 22:32

"Beckers2008 - 02 Aug 2023 - 13:03:25 - 14941 of 19139
From Property118.com

"The average UK rent has soared by 19% to reach £1,137 in July from June and voids are dropping quickly to highlight the strong competition in the private rented sector (PRS), one index reports"

Expect rents to increase by another 10% in Q3 as Students increase the demand.

Buying a new build is becoming ever more attractive, rents within 45 minutes of London Mainline are now £1,400 pcm for a 3 bed ex council house.
Expect those ex council houses to be £1,500 pcm in Q1 2024" END.

I underestimated, Q1 2024 those same houses reached £1,600 pcm.

Watch and learn trolls.

Now when is this house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 17/10/2024 17:08

Jugears

"exactly!"

Like I said, you believe what the govn and authorities want you to and not the reality on the ground.

Just like the huge debt problems, which go back to policies, years to pre GFC. QE which resulted from GFC... If the govn was honest then that would completely discredit UKG and lead to serious questions.

There is a huge debt problem with govns, Organisations/businesses, individuals.

The problem with HBs is they charge a huge premium(can be 30-40%) for their new builds. If the govn actually did their job properly, they would demand that premium be cut significantly to a more reasonable 15-20% above existing properties.

The govn should also introduce a windfall tax as HBs made hundreds of millions from from the govn's H2B, which helped house prices surge.

I doubt the govn has the courage or more importantly, the means to deal with the reality.

[beckers2008] 17/10/2024 16:43

Sikhthetech,

I qoute you...
"I've covered this many times on my TLY thread" Lol!

What, your premium ramping TLY BB you set up over 10 years ago when the share price was £3, Lol!
I told you to sell at 41p then again at 14p, the share price went below 4p on the bid, lol!

Tell me when is your 6 each and every year house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[sikhthetech] 17/10/2024 16:03

Vast majority of businesses/organisations, inc HBs engage agency staff/contractors/private providers as and when needed.


The problem is joe-public don't know how the NHS works - they think it's being privatised when in fact since it's inception, they have always employed agency staff. Without Private providers/agency staff, the NHS would collapse.

You are going by what the media and govn want you to believe and not what the reality is.

With NHS, thousands of GPs work as self employed and are not paid directly by the NHS. There's a good chance your GP is also. Ask them. If they are not then I dare you to vote with your feet and leave them. Virtually all Ambulance Trusts are companies. I dare you to refuse to dial 999 in emergency because they are private contractors.

If those thousands of contractors/agency staff were directly salaried by the NHS then the govn would need to raise taxes substantially.
The largest employer in the UK is the NHS. Who would pay the huge increase in Employer's NI bill???? The tax payer. Who would pay for their pension contributions? The tax payer.

I've covered this many times on my TLY thread.

[glasgow13] 17/10/2024 15:30

if they stop employing agency staff the agency staff would need to go and work for the NHS at normal rates.

[jugears] 17/10/2024 15:12

I'm not expecting it either, but raising taxes will lead to lower rates eventually IMEO, at the end of the day you can't keep borrowing money you have to pay it back sometime, uk gov could save billions on the NHS by not employing agency staff that are paid double/triple & sometime a lot more than full time staff!

[sikhthetech] 17/10/2024 14:45

The budget in 2 weeks will decide direction of travel.

Crucially, if the govn provide help for FTBs, similar to Help to Buy, then HBs should benefit.

I can't see the govn providing a similar scheme to H2B (0% interest for 5yrs), given they already claim to have a huge black hole and looks like will be raising taxes

[craftyale] 17/10/2024 06:06

Incl div's 66% gain over one year for TW. share price :))

[craftyale] 17/10/2024 06:02

From the FT ...... UK house prices rise for sixth straight month as mortgage costs fallUK house prices rose in August for the sixth consecutive month, according to official data highlighting the impact of easing borrowing costs on the property market.The average UK house price rose at an annual rate of 2.8 per cent to £293,000 in August, up from a rise of 1.8 per cent in July, marking the fastest pace of house price inflation since February 2023, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

[kreature] 16/10/2024 22:59

No sign of that frenzy yet despite rate cuts…..Hopefully more mugs will buy the ‘scamming̵7; with 40 years of debt. That’s what that MP called it anyway. Fake freeholds? What was she talking about ?

[jugears] 16/10/2024 13:12

Rogue, absolutely agree,rates need to be cut slowly to a sustainable level, we need to see a slow recovery in the housing market so that hb's have the ability to build production back up & to prevent a frenzy of would be purchasers pushing house prices up rapidly due to lack of supply tbf I think it would only need to be cut back to 4% before we see a new housing boom, as it is, house prices will rise at least 5% annually over the next few years whilst there are still supply constraints, lowering rates to far will exasperate that.

[beckers2008] 16/10/2024 13:12

Inflation falls to 1.7%

Am I going to be correct yet again about a BoE base rate cut in Q4 2024?

"Beckers2008 - 19 Sep 2024 - 15:54:19 - 19085 of 19113
Remember my statement...

BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 2024 interest rate reduction?
Absolutely every chance.
I was correct yet again!

I expect the UK's next rate cut to come in Q4 2024 followed by four quarterly cuts in 2025 and one cut in 2026 resulting in a 3.5 per cent base rate by the middle of 2026.

Watch and learn trolls, you have lost the argument as I told you over a year ago.

Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!"

[jugears] 16/10/2024 13:02

Sick,Home reposition are at there lowest since December 2023 & have been falling all year, even in December they were still lower than Pre-Covid!, higher interest rates haven't significantly impacted houses sales & hb's haven't lost billions in sales because they haven't built the houses in the first place nbut have sold the houses they Chose to build, meanwhile they are sitting on billions of pounds worth of development land that is increasing in value daily which will bring exponential future profits, my additional investment the other day has already made 10% plus the dividend, With Rolls Royce flying high & Your recommendation to buy Currys( now nearly doubled in price)this has been a very good year, would I have cleared a £4.70 a share profit in RR or doubled my money In Currys trading or shorting? I very very much doubt for one minute, but each to our own I suppose.
TBF, Tw only need enough money to pay overheads & a dividend if they want to,they don't need to buy any land for the next 5 years either so they don't need to my record profits, if they make say 4 billion over the next ten years it doesn't matter if one year they make 200 million & the next year 600 million then back to 400 million because it will average out long term, you never get 2 years the same in business & not when you are in a cyclical business like house building covering overheads is all that matters at the moment, I have to say that as there is NO written guarantee other than a desire to give us one I am very surprised that we are even getting a dividend in November.

[sikhthetech] 16/10/2024 12:54

rogue,

agree. It would be harmful to reduce rates by 1%. Smaller reductions. I think there'll be 1 reduction this year.

[sikhthetech] 16/10/2024 11:52

The govn are planning huge tax increases.

Tax rises will negate some or all of the decreases in interest rates.

As predicted, interest rates falling from summer onwards.

HBs have lost hundreds of millions of pounds in revenue because interest rates had to be kept higher for longer.




sikhthetech15 Jun '23 - 21:14 - 13970 of 18930
UH,

Of course interest rates will eventually come down. However, potential homebuyers holding off for lower rates means lower sales for HBs. These potential homebuyers could hold off for months or more than a year, if prices continue to fall.

Interest rates coming down maybe good for those about to buy their 1st home but the problem is interest rates are expected to be higher for longer. Those waiting may have to wait a long time.

In the meantime, the hundreds of thousands who are coming off the fixed rate deals taken out over the past 2-5 yrs will face significantly higher mortgage payments and possibly for many years..
That's on top of credit cards, loans and higher taxes and energy bills.


Affordability is a major problem.

[martyn9] 16/10/2024 11:28

Yes jug the boe needs to show some confidence unlike the morons supposedly running the country and reduce rates a full 1% point, but i doubt it.