Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 10/7/2024 16:03

Shorts up again on Barratt; now 4.36% of the shares are on loan in reportable shorts positions making Barratt one of the most heavily shorted shares on the LSE, only just outside the top (worst?) 5.

[beckers2008] 10/7/2024 15:48

DvD,

What a load of waffle which is pontificated over two years ago by many commentators, nowhere near as bad as forecast. TW. earnings growth in 2025.

""DanVanDan - 08 Apr 2024 - 09:12:56 - 28156 of 28224
Chart has broken through the support line. Nothing to stop this falling to the 100-110p area now. Interim divi ex date was 28 March, so a lot of short-term holders seem to be exiting. Just an observation; no need for people to get hysterical on here. I am short here -- full disclosure -- happy to see things going my way. 110p is my target price. No reason for alarm from people who intend holding for ever though." END.

Oh dear, your later to the party than Kreature(JS), he called it wrong on 10th Nov 23.

'Your happy to see things go your way' on 8th April, lol!
Your making a fool of yourself talking BS and you called it wrong, lol!

Another classic mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 10/7/2024 15:25

jugears -
1. AFFORDABILITY IS A PROBLEM. That is why new mortgages are down by 25%. That is why all of the housebuilders have built 20% fewer houses than last year and are forecasting to build even fewer over the next year.

And most tellingly of all, that is why BARRATT HAVE SOLD HOUSES AT PRICES 6% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. People here have been telling you for several months that the market has stagnated in terms of pricing and may be going into reverse. Soon the Barratt effect will be felt by everyone selling a house; prices are going to fall. The ONLY question is whether they fall gradually or steeply.

2. INTEREST RATES WILL NOT FALL TO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE THREE YEARS AGO. Those days are over. Normality for interest rates has returned. Typical interest rates over the last 60 years are between 6% and 8% and sometimes even higher. The only way that buyers will return is if prices fall. Even today, one of the Bank of England rate-setters is signaling that the bank might not reduce rates in August, even though inflation is around 2%. If the economy begins to founder, rates will come down a little, but that will also mean that unemployment will be higher and fewer people will be buying houses.

3. As prices fall in a smaller and smaller market, TW's profits shrink further and further. There is a major misalignment right now between TW's valuation and its future earnings. Earnings will be lower, dividends will fall, and the share price will fall. It will take time for the market to realise this, but when realisation sinks in, the fall to £1 will likely be swift.

4. We do not need a recession for this to happen. However, if we do have a recession, all negative effects for TW will be amplified.

5. Labour's efforts to build against the market (a socialist style command economy strategy, instead of a capitalist demand economy) will fail. You cannot make TW build houses it can't sell. 'Planning consent' is where Labour has said there is a problem. They are wrong. All of the house-builders have voluntarily scaled back their operations because the affordability issue has shrunk the market. House-builders know this because they are hearing it from prospective buyers every day and seeing it in sales projections, and this informs their business planning.

Build-to-rent could be a solution to the need for greater volume house-building. We are already seeing institutional buying in this sector. Vistry is a potential beneficiary in that market, TW is not. Cheap brownfield land will be required and a 'special relationship' with councils to make the build economics work. Only a few builders will be able to exploit this. Labour will apply rent controls and tenant protections to make renting affordable for 'hard working families'. As returns in the rented sector fall, this will cause private landlords to divest and push more property onto a depressed property market, causing prices to fall further.

[beckers2008] 10/7/2024 13:08

Sikhthetech,

At least 30% pay cash for their properties in the UK and those remaining have less than a 95% LTV ratio.
As your always banging on about an affordability crisis, lol!
Please provide a breakdown of the figures because you seem to imply that you know every individual's debt value, lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 10/7/2024 12:59

Clearly affordability is still a problem, hence why they build fewer homes.


Uncertain housing market continues.... How will Labour get HBs to build more when they are already reducing the number they build due to affordability problems?


Barratt Developments sees further slow down in completions next year

"Barratt Developments, one of the UK’s largest housebuilders, reported a mixed performance for the financial year 2024, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the housing market caused by high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis."

[jugears] 10/7/2024 12:46

gbh2, that is the problem, the NHS has more people behind the scenes than staff on the ground, its the same with the police, fire & ambulance service, unfortunately those at the top are taking all the money in wages & why do we need these police & crime commissioners in every county, where I live every county has a bloody mayor earning over 100k a year & now we have an east midlands mayor to pay for! If a light bulb goes in the houses of Parliament it costs well over £100.00 to get it replaced by an outside contractor( that was 10 years ago so probably 2/3/4 times as much now & lets not even mention the 1.4 billion pounds wasted on PPE that is to be destroyed!

[gbh2] 10/7/2024 12:34

Every level of our Public service departments are over staffed and overpaid, as for the monolithic NHS, throwing more cash will only be wasted on the multitude of Management levels that spend their day trying to justify their obscene pay and perks.

But this is what Labour does, so nothing is going to change other than the amount of Tax we pay for their mismanagement!

PS picked up a few more today :)

[jugears] 10/7/2024 12:30

They should just have a county council & get rid of district councils all together!

[jugears] 10/7/2024 12:27

Sikh, so they operate in a FEW place where Cala does, its hardly competition on a grand scale, read my posts CALA BUILD IN PARTS OF SCOTLAND & THE SOUTH EAST, TW build across the whole country, I don't even know what the relevance is? TW aren't buying Cala homes that is nothing but good news for TW, Good news for shareholders, You say affordability but none of the HB's have said that they have struggled to sell any of the houses they did build & chose to build, so how do we know they couldn't sell more if they had built more. I think you make assumptions that because your low wages struggle to cover your mortgage costs that everyone else is in the same boat & just isn't true.
Are you aware that LGEN prefer a cash bidder?, none of the hb's would or could do that!
It doesn't matter if hb's sell less houses next year, selling some is better than none but they are still clearly selling plenty to me,the less houses they build now is just making the housing shortage even bigger, I see exponential profits here in the next housing cycle & bigger dividends than we have seen in the past. Tw are one of the best ran houses builders & definitely the best management, for what ever reason they have not made an offer for Cala it was the right reason IMEO
Lets look at the facts, interest rates have peaked, the number of houses being built & sold is still in high figures, house prices are still rising & now we have certainty customers will start to come back & anybody shorting this share at the moment really need their head looking out IMEO!!!!
It doesn't bother me if the share price falls short term as I think the future of hb's in this country has never looked better, I still have 500K to invest here although me thinks I have well & truly missed the boat now, but at least its stil earning 25k a year in the bank

[sikhthetech] 10/7/2024 12:12

Martyn,

Absolutely. Plus they should cut any bonuses given to CEOs of councils.

I expect there will be cuts/tax rises anyway. The govn are short of money.

[sikhthetech] 10/7/2024 11:36

As expected, affordability continuing to impact house building.

Uncertain housing market continues.... How will Labour get HBs to build more when they are already reducing the number they build due to affordability problems?


Barratt Developments sees further slow down in completions next year

"Barratt Developments, one of the UK’s largest housebuilders, reported a mixed performance for the financial year 2024, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the housing market caused by high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis."

[sikhthetech] 10/7/2024 11:36

Martyn,

Labour are doing a lot of talking and contradicting themselves. There's reports of tax rises, shorter working weeks etc, yet they desperately need growth.

Delivering and not talking is what the country needs.

[cupra kid] 10/7/2024 10:35

That certainly made me chuckle. Don't forget the advice we all get is "it's best to trade" so it doesn't look a good trade being short does it, lol.

[martyn9] 10/7/2024 09:34

Apparently, labor is going to eventually sanction all councils to be able to work 4 days a week for the same salary, how will this help the process of quicker planning approvals!!
Utter clap trap.

[beckers2008] 10/7/2024 09:20

""DanVanDan - 08 Apr 2024 - 09:12:56 - 28156 of 28224
Chart has broken through the support line. Nothing to stop this falling to the 100-110p area now. Interim divi ex date was 28 March, so a lot of short-term holders seem to be exiting. Just an observation; no need for people to get hysterical on here. I am short here -- full disclosure -- happy to see things going my way. 110p is my target price. No reason for alarm from people who intend holding for ever though." END.

Oh dear, your later to the party than Kreature(JS), he called it wrong on 10th Nov 23.

'Your happy to see things go your way' on 8th April, lol!
Your making a fool of yourself talking BS and you called it wrong, lol!

Another classic mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 10/7/2024 08:05

If by good, you mean bloody awful, then yes.

Sales down 18%, selling prices to private buyers are DOWN from last year by 6%. Profit has all but totally collapsed. They've got £192m of legacy charges that will bring it down to little or nothing.

Maybe the huge shorts on Barratt are making sense to you now.

Net cash is falling and the proposed dividend will be covered 1.75 by profits, so expect that to be reduced substantially.

TW's turn in three weeks.

[jugears] 10/7/2024 07:20

Good Tu from Bdev.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 22:21

Why go to the effort of putting in a bid to get it rejected, I doubt any formal bid was made, that normally happens when you are trying to buy a company that isn't for sale I suspect that Tw enquired & were given a deadline to submit an offer which it didn't. I don't really see what the problem is other than fantastic news that they are not & I am almost sure never were going to by Cala, perhaps seeing the issues that bdev are having with m & m c have put them off, if that's the case it's a bloody good job they did.
You say according to reports, who from? didn't this all start in the Times another pay as you read rag ? It's funny how nothing can be substantiated though? Sources sources sources lol lol lol
Can you also tell me where it says its an auction, Lgen hasn't officially put Cala up for sale it's in talks with interested parties, from what I have been told no offers have been given , I could be wrong but that is what a reliable friend in the industry has told me today. It probably doesn't help that Lgen want a cash offer so imeo its unlikely to be sold to any hb.

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 20:28

DVD,

It's an auction. They would have an indication of a reserve price.

According to the reports, TW pulled out, this week, so obviously were in already in the running.

"then put in a low-ball bid to get themselves rejected."

Exactly my point. TW CEO would not PHONE CALA CEO and ask what you want for CALA before rejecting it, as they ALREADY had bid.
Jugears suggests no bid was made.

A bid would not have been made if TW had not been through any DD.


Even with property auctions, bidders have to prove they have the means and it's your legally earned money. Bidders are vetted before they are allowed to bid.

There's a lot of verification. I've been going auctions for 40years. In the early days, potential bidders could just turn up at the auction, register your name and bid.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 19:11

Sick lol of course its Lgen, that said I have no doubt that the CEO will be involved. The point is Tw have not made a formal bid & Cala are not for sale for 1 billion pounds, LGEN have clearly said offers over 1 billion pounds which makes your comparative valuations look a bit biased to your own views once again,I cannot see any reason why Tw would be interested in Cala, very little in common, there wouldn't be any longterm cost savings & far cheaper to ramp your own production up if you wantbto build more houses, Excluding yearly profits LGEN have made 400 million plus profit on there purchase, I must admit that I never understood why LGEN bought Cala or why Lloyd's bank bought United living either, although Lloyd's off loaded UL last year anyway. Looking forward to Tw TU.
The big issue with any hb takeovers will be the mergers & monopoly commission, already to little competition in hb sector, I hear things are not good Bdev/ Redrow, perhaps that is not helping Cala sale?

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 17:50

They would have had some sort of indication on the expected minimum sale price beforehand sikh. There would be pre-qualification discussions on both sides before any auction for a company. It's not like buying a house at an auction (and even there you'd get a guide price). There are pension obligations and all sorts of other commitments.

If TW were in the running for this, they would have been given a lot of info on CALA, and likewise, TW would have had to show that they have the means to do the deal and deliver on any irrevocable CALA commitments. As a publicly listed company, they would have had no difficulty in meeting any buyer criteria - they could always issue shares to fund a purchase, if necessary.

It's usually hard to know exactly what the intentions are for bidders involved in this sort of activity. TW could have merely been using it as a benchmarking exercise (gaining info on a competitor's business) and then put in a low-ball bid to get themselves rejected.

But what we do know from the outcome is that TW is not in an expansionist phase. House-builders are hunkering down to get through a difficult period.

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 17:32

Jugears

"I think the scenario goes a bit like this, Tw CEO phones Cala CEO, Hi Mate how much do you want,1.4 Billion! ok bye, not an offer, not even an informal offer."

That scenario is impossible!

Firstly, CALA are not selling the business themselves, L&G, CALA's current owners, are.

Secondly, the sale is in an auction, so the CALA CEO wouldn't specify a price.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 17:15

I think the scenario goes a bit like this, Tw CEO phones Cala CEO, Hi Mate how much do you want,1.4 Billion! ok bye, not an offer, not even an informal offer.
Have you looked at the CAlA Map?, Nothing between Glasgow & Peterborough (smallest home 3 bed) nothing Past Oxford, nothing in the west/ South West until you get to Scotland, Cala are a minow totally different company to TW, building in the South east & Scotland are far less profitable IMO than Central England logistically awkward as well( Incidentally these were areas that I avoided like the plague when I was in business) once again Tw's top management have shown their strength, buying Cala would have been a terrible move for everyone & would almost certainly have restricted the upward movement we are about to see in TW's share price
I take a lot of what is in the press with a pinch of salt although I do read Construction news & Construction Enquirer every day as this is usually 100% factual rather than someone sitting at the desk of a national news paper trying to make people believe in its theories!