Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[cupra kid] 10/7/2024 09:35

That certainly made me chuckle. Don't forget the advice we all get is "it's best to trade" so it doesn't look a good trade being short does it, lol.

[martyn9] 10/7/2024 08:34

Apparently, labor is going to eventually sanction all councils to be able to work 4 days a week for the same salary, how will this help the process of quicker planning approvals!!
Utter clap trap.

[beckers2008] 10/7/2024 08:20

""DanVanDan - 08 Apr 2024 - 09:12:56 - 28156 of 28224
Chart has broken through the support line. Nothing to stop this falling to the 100-110p area now. Interim divi ex date was 28 March, so a lot of short-term holders seem to be exiting. Just an observation; no need for people to get hysterical on here. I am short here -- full disclosure -- happy to see things going my way. 110p is my target price. No reason for alarm from people who intend holding for ever though." END.

Oh dear, your later to the party than Kreature(JS), he called it wrong on 10th Nov 23.

'Your happy to see things go your way' on 8th April, lol!
Your making a fool of yourself talking BS and you called it wrong, lol!

Another classic mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 10/7/2024 07:05

If by good, you mean bloody awful, then yes.

Sales down 18%, selling prices to private buyers are DOWN from last year by 6%. Profit has all but totally collapsed. They've got £192m of legacy charges that will bring it down to little or nothing.

Maybe the huge shorts on Barratt are making sense to you now.

Net cash is falling and the proposed dividend will be covered 1.75 by profits, so expect that to be reduced substantially.

TW's turn in three weeks.

[jugears] 10/7/2024 06:20

Good Tu from Bdev.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 21:21

Why go to the effort of putting in a bid to get it rejected, I doubt any formal bid was made, that normally happens when you are trying to buy a company that isn't for sale I suspect that Tw enquired & were given a deadline to submit an offer which it didn't. I don't really see what the problem is other than fantastic news that they are not & I am almost sure never were going to by Cala, perhaps seeing the issues that bdev are having with m & m c have put them off, if that's the case it's a bloody good job they did.
You say according to reports, who from? didn't this all start in the Times another pay as you read rag ? It's funny how nothing can be substantiated though? Sources sources sources lol lol lol
Can you also tell me where it says its an auction, Lgen hasn't officially put Cala up for sale it's in talks with interested parties, from what I have been told no offers have been given , I could be wrong but that is what a reliable friend in the industry has told me today. It probably doesn't help that Lgen want a cash offer so imeo its unlikely to be sold to any hb.

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 19:28

DVD,

It's an auction. They would have an indication of a reserve price.

According to the reports, TW pulled out, this week, so obviously were in already in the running.

"then put in a low-ball bid to get themselves rejected."

Exactly my point. TW CEO would not PHONE CALA CEO and ask what you want for CALA before rejecting it, as they ALREADY had bid.
Jugears suggests no bid was made.

A bid would not have been made if TW had not been through any DD.


Even with property auctions, bidders have to prove they have the means and it's your legally earned money. Bidders are vetted before they are allowed to bid.

There's a lot of verification. I've been going auctions for 40years. In the early days, potential bidders could just turn up at the auction, register your name and bid.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 18:11

Sick lol of course its Lgen, that said I have no doubt that the CEO will be involved. The point is Tw have not made a formal bid & Cala are not for sale for 1 billion pounds, LGEN have clearly said offers over 1 billion pounds which makes your comparative valuations look a bit biased to your own views once again,I cannot see any reason why Tw would be interested in Cala, very little in common, there wouldn't be any longterm cost savings & far cheaper to ramp your own production up if you wantbto build more houses, Excluding yearly profits LGEN have made 400 million plus profit on there purchase, I must admit that I never understood why LGEN bought Cala or why Lloyd's bank bought United living either, although Lloyd's off loaded UL last year anyway. Looking forward to Tw TU.
The big issue with any hb takeovers will be the mergers & monopoly commission, already to little competition in hb sector, I hear things are not good Bdev/ Redrow, perhaps that is not helping Cala sale?

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 16:50

They would have had some sort of indication on the expected minimum sale price beforehand sikh. There would be pre-qualification discussions on both sides before any auction for a company. It's not like buying a house at an auction (and even there you'd get a guide price). There are pension obligations and all sorts of other commitments.

If TW were in the running for this, they would have been given a lot of info on CALA, and likewise, TW would have had to show that they have the means to do the deal and deliver on any irrevocable CALA commitments. As a publicly listed company, they would have had no difficulty in meeting any buyer criteria - they could always issue shares to fund a purchase, if necessary.

It's usually hard to know exactly what the intentions are for bidders involved in this sort of activity. TW could have merely been using it as a benchmarking exercise (gaining info on a competitor's business) and then put in a low-ball bid to get themselves rejected.

But what we do know from the outcome is that TW is not in an expansionist phase. House-builders are hunkering down to get through a difficult period.

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 16:32

Jugears

"I think the scenario goes a bit like this, Tw CEO phones Cala CEO, Hi Mate how much do you want,1.4 Billion! ok bye, not an offer, not even an informal offer."

That scenario is impossible!

Firstly, CALA are not selling the business themselves, L&G, CALA's current owners, are.

Secondly, the sale is in an auction, so the CALA CEO wouldn't specify a price.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 16:15

I think the scenario goes a bit like this, Tw CEO phones Cala CEO, Hi Mate how much do you want,1.4 Billion! ok bye, not an offer, not even an informal offer.
Have you looked at the CAlA Map?, Nothing between Glasgow & Peterborough (smallest home 3 bed) nothing Past Oxford, nothing in the west/ South West until you get to Scotland, Cala are a minow totally different company to TW, building in the South east & Scotland are far less profitable IMO than Central England logistically awkward as well( Incidentally these were areas that I avoided like the plague when I was in business) once again Tw's top management have shown their strength, buying Cala would have been a terrible move for everyone & would almost certainly have restricted the upward movement we are about to see in TW's share price
I take a lot of what is in the press with a pinch of salt although I do read Construction news & Construction Enquirer every day as this is usually 100% factual rather than someone sitting at the desk of a national news paper trying to make people believe in its theories!

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 16:07

I'm not convinced by the 'quite a different builder' distinction to be candid sikh. They both build houses. House-building is not rocket science. If PSN buys CALA, then evidently they see value in the assets. It'll need to be a real bargain though in this market; house prices aren't going up and volumes are going down. It's an interesting time...

But again, the same point if PSN doesn't do the deal; it'll be further confirmation of the poor prospects for new build houses of £300k plus.

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 15:57

CALA isn't just a competitor to TW.

They have also worked in partnership on projects. The 2 companies work in similar areas, similar property types, ie upper end of the market.





PSN on the other hand, sees opportunity to move into previously untapped market:

"“Cala Group is quite a different housebuilder to Persimmon’s existing operations. While Persimmon currently focuses on the affordable end of the market (average sale price is £285k), Cala operates at a much higher price point (£495k), c. 75% higher than a typical Persimmon home. That might offer Persimmon an opportunity to move into a previously untapped segment of the market, however it does come with risk. Persimmon has built up a highly profitable business at the lower end of the market, and has limited experience running a business like Cala. We might expect that such an acquisition would erode the company’s operating margin down a level more typical for housebuilders generally."

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 15:55

The shorts on Barratt are really gathering momentum; another increase reported today bringing the total reportable shorts (positions over 0.5% of the company's shares) to 4.26%. If just two more shorters cross the reportable threshold, Barratt will be the fifth most shorted share on the LSE. Barratt is publishing a trading update in the morning.

Interestingly, Qube seem to have mistimed their short on Crest and have reduced it a little. Almost everyone else is hanging tight and Worldquant have reduced theirs a fraction (reported today).

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 15:45

Not understood by you, obviously. CALA build homes across the country. They've got sites in the south, similar to TW. Sky journalists are usually pretty good with their business reporting; they're unlikely to run a story like this if there's nothing behind it. No one needs to put an RNS out if it's just a preliminary discussion. Evidently it didn't get much further than that.

I can see both sides here; there's no real incentive for TW to buy CALA if they've no intention of increasing production. But at the same time, if there's the chance to grab a good quality landbank at low cost, you'd think they would want that. That said, I don't really see the value in taking out one direct competitor when they've got at least a dozen others to contend with.

The more important point here is this; L&G want to sell their house-building firm because they don't consider it a strong and profitable business. TW don't want to buy it because they agree. That suggests that both L&G and TW believe that house-builders are in for a difficult few years.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 15:31

Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

I wonder what sources they supposedly Were???? no RNS from Wimpey, note the price tag says AT LEAST 1 BILLION POUNDS, also note it says UNDERSTOOD but does not say where the source has officially come from, my contacts at TW were not even aware that TW had made any formal offer for CALA homes, even Legal & general haven't released an RNS either, any way this was not a good fit, Scotland is a very difficult place to build houses, no competition for Tw. Cala build a lot of Flats & higher end houses, Tw have a broad mix & sites spread across the country, you can open a hell of a lot of new sites with 1 billion if you want to build more houses. I note this originated in the beano for investors The

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 15:11

Both TW & CALA build on same developments/areas.

Here's just 2 of them, so CALA are a direct competitor. They are being auctioned cheaply at around £1bln.

Here's another, Glasgow... both selling 5bed detached in Maidenhill...




CALA are a direct competitor, so would have been a perfect fit for TW.
They are being auctioned off cheaply with reports of around £1bln.
TW obviously couldn't afford them as it would have meant a huge placing and cut in divi, which is unaffordable in an uncertain housing market.

Taylor Wimpey drops out of Cala Homes auction

"Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

Fellow FTSE 100 developer Persimmon remains in the running but is also being encourged to raise its offer.

One source told The Times that private equity firms look the most likely buyers because they can avoid offering shares and make a straight cash offer."

Cala and Taylor Wimpey are building hundreds of homes at the West Craigs site in Edinburgh.





The fact CALA is being sold cheaply says a lot about the housing market and valuations attached to other HBs.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 14:52

Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

I wonder what sources they supposedly Were???? no RNS from Wimpey, note the price tag says AT LEAST 1 BILLION POUNDS, also note it says UNDERSTOOD but does say where the source has come from, my contacts at TW were not even aware that TW had made any formal offer for CALA homes, even Legal & general haven't released an RNS either, any way this was not a good fit, Scotland is a very difficult place to build houses, no competition for Tw. Cala build a lot of Flats & higher end houses, Tw have a broad mix & sites spread across the country, you can open a hell of a lot of new sites with 1 billion if you want to build more houses. I note this originated in the beano for investors The TIMES!!!!!

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 13:26

Jugears
Re TW & CALA homes

"One site"

Here's another, Glasgow... both selling 5bed detached in Maidenhill...




More evidence then.
CALA homes is a direct competitor to TW. It would have made sense for TW to buy CALA as it is cheaply priced. TW can't afford to, as they would have to raise funds and cut the divi in an uncertain housing market.

[craftyale] 09/7/2024 07:12

Sept 22 share price was approx 88p today 155p. Plus 19p of divs. A 98 percent gain. We need more houses says Labour. I love this share. 160p very soon.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 22:09

Sikhthetech,

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 21:22

Jugears,

"one site lol"
It's one site compared to no overlap which you were claiming.

Again, you shrug off any evidence, yet provide none from your side.

The point is CALA is being sold off cheaply. TW can't afford them but it also shows how much the market values HBs, given the uncertain housing market.

"Joined your friends Filtered"

What, again!!! How many times have you claimed to filter me...lol
Your pretend filtering never lasts long, does it?


"think I will spend a bit more time over on the Tly site stiring things up"

Wow, you really are very rattled about HBs share price crashing, aren't you?

You can't see my TLY thread if you've filtered me, doh!!! So obviously you'll never be able to post on it...doh!!

[jugears] 08/7/2024 21:00

Wow one site lol oh lol,I am more than sure Tw offered what they thought it was worth not sensible to pay over the odds, a lesson I am sure they will have learned taking over Taylor Woodrow homes, why pay over the odds for circa 3k houses a year when you can just ramp your own production up on land you own already? it couldn't have been any formal offer as we haven't had an rns. The best decision though for the company & share holders IMEO