Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 16/7/2024 13:55

Sikhthetech,

At least 30% pay cash for their properties in the UK and those remaining have less than a 95% LTV ratio.
As your always banging on about an affordability crisis, lol!
Please provide a breakdown of the figures because you seem to imply that you know every individual's debt value, lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 16/7/2024 13:10

tlobs, you're being a little disingenuous, don't you think? That little extract was from Investors Chronicle a year ago when the TW shareprice was 118p.

It's now looking like a much longer downturn. TW sales have dropped even further since that piece was published and the shareprice is now 156p and well above net asset value, which is really the point I've been making. TW is hugely overvalued at this point.

As far as houseprices are concerned, the downturn is likely to continue well into the future. The market is over supplied right now as any estate agent will tell you. Interest rates show practically no sign of coming down immediately, and if they do reduce at all, it'll be too little to make any practical impact on affordability.

The efforts that the government will make to stimulate house-building will only exacerbate the commercial predicament for the listed house-builders. What the market fails to appreciate is the different culture applied by a Labour administration. The Tories were happy to ladle government money into the hands of the housebuilders through help-to-buy schemes, driving up prices. Labour will choose a different approach that favours ordinary people rather than firms. Homes will be built and sold at much lower profits.

As for TW's landbank, what is it really worth? The government has plenty of options to make brownfield and 'greyfield' land available cheaply. Take a look at the apartment blocks built by Kier in partnership with Network Rail. They're the kind of development that will be encouraged, rather than expensive houses on fleecehold estates. Some builders will continue to make a profit, though at much lower levels. TW will attempt to ride out the downturn, but it will quickly run out of cash. Sell.

[jugears] 16/7/2024 11:22

Tw are the best hb by far,& can't believe we are half way through the day & Avant homes hasn't been mentioned by our resident morons!

[tlobs2] 16/7/2024 09:50

And some builders recently complaining about the size of their land reserves.....

Not Taylor Wimpey though ;-)


Taylor Wimpey stands out as better placed to recover than many of its rivals, in part because it recorded no additional post-Grenfell cladding costs this year, but also because of its large landbank and cash reserves. While other housebuilders are depleting their coffers as revenues dry up, Taylor Wimpey has enough dry powder to ride out this downturn. Good news, too, for those who invest for income as its dividends depend on these assets rather than earnings.

And this underscores the final bull point for Taylor Wimpey: it is priced lower than its net assets, the bulk of which is that landbank. The equity market fails to appreciate the value of it. But we do. Buy.

[jugears] 15/7/2024 13:25

Thats right, Long for LONG term investors, always the best way IMEO.

[sikhthetech] 15/7/2024 11:28

Cupra

"Don’t forget the advice we all get is “it’s best to trade” so it doesn’t look a good trade being short does it"

Trading is, um, going long/short.

Shorting is being short!
Investing big, like you, Jugears and Becky is being long!

I thought that was easy to understand, even for a novice...
lol


It's best to try and understand the sector/political/economic newsflow before deciding whether to be long/short/trade or on the sidelines.

;-)

[craftyale] 15/7/2024 11:05

160 by Friday. Here to make money.

[beckers2008] 15/7/2024 10:59

Up we go again!

SP breaking through resistance at £1.55.
Support at £1.50 and strong support at £1.40.
Now, did I get that right DvD, lol!

[beckers2008] 14/7/2024 23:58

K or should I say Cretin,

The working class have never been able to purchase a property, except Maggie's great give away, please read my post history and learn.

You really should try and not get so emotional (Gfy), lol!

You stated...
""Kreature - 10 Nov 2023 - 08:25:58 - 4893 of 4916
Well I'm shorting the lot PSN, BWY, RDW"" END.

Oh dear, it seems you are in the troll losers club along with the other village idiots, including Sikhthetech whose been wrong for 6 years, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 14/7/2024 22:22

Once again, you prove that you have nothing to bring to this discussion. The earnings driven by fundamentals are what will ultimately determine the TW share price and you have no answer to the issues people have raised here. Pasting the same pointless remarks about pennies on the share price and 'lolling' seem to be all you can manage. Given what you call your 'educational standard' I am not surprised.

[beckers2008] 14/7/2024 16:21

DvD,

You obviously haven't read my posts where you would have read my research so you are only worth a 'Sikhthetech' copy and paste, lol!

I qoute you...

"beckers, from the standard of your writing (barely semi-literate) it seems obvious that YOU ARE WORKING CLASS, you berk"

What have I told you about getting emotional, you are obviously not an investor, as this is a golden rule, not to get emotional, lol!

If you look back at my posting history, you will not only learn about investing but also what educational standard I achieved, this may give you a clue as to my class?
Are you a class adverse Labour supporter, lol!

AND STOP SHOUTING. It is rude.

"DvD,

"my last increase was 149p" lol, yeah course it was!

SP breaking through resistance at £1.55 on strong volume today.
Support at £1.50 and strong support at £1.40.
Now, did I get that right DvD, lol!

How's your pitiful short at £1.3335 doing, lol, just lol!"

[danvandan] 14/7/2024 15:46

And since you're very excited about posting on here today, perhaps you'd like to address some of the actual issues affecting TW instead of just abusing other posters. Here's a reminder on the factors that will reduce TW's earnings for the immediate future.

1. AFFORDABILITY IS A PROBLEM. That is why new mortgages are down by 25%. That is why all of the housebuilders have built 20% fewer houses than last year and are forecasting to build even fewer over the next year.

And most tellingly of all, that is why BARRATT HAVE SOLD HOUSES AT PRICES 6% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. People here have been telling you for several months that the market has stagnated in terms of pricing and may be going into reverse. Soon the Barratt effect will be felt by everyone selling a house; prices are going to fall. The ONLY question is whether they fall gradually or steeply.

2. INTEREST RATES WILL NOT FALL TO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE THREE YEARS AGO. Those days are over. Normality for interest rates has returned. Typical interest rates over the last 60 years are between 6% and 8% and sometimes even higher. The only way that buyers will return is if prices fall. Even today, one of the Bank of England rate-setters is signaling that the bank might not reduce rates in August, even though inflation is around 2%. If the economy begins to founder, rates will come down a little, but that will also mean that unemployment will be higher and fewer people will be buying houses.

3. As prices fall in a smaller and smaller market, TW's profits shrink further and further. There is a major misalignment right now between TW's valuation and its future earnings. Earnings will be lower, dividends will fall, and the share price will fall. It will take time for the market to realise this, but when realisation sinks in, the fall to £1 will likely be swift.

4. We do not need a recession for this to happen. However, if we do have a recession, all negative effects for TW will be amplified.

5. Labour's efforts to build against the market (a socialist style command economy strategy, instead of a capitalist demand economy) will fail. You cannot make TW build houses it can't sell. 'Planning consent' is where Labour has said there is a problem. They are wrong. All of the house-builders have voluntarily scaled back their operations because the affordability issue has shrunk the market. House-builders know this because they are hearing it from prospective buyers every day and seeing it in sales projections, and this informs their business planning.

Build-to-rent could be a solution to the need for greater volume house-building. We are already seeing institutional buying in this sector. Vistry is a potential beneficiary in that market, TW is not. Cheap brownfield land will be required and a 'special relationship' with councils to make the build economics work. Only a few builders will be able to exploit this. Labour will apply rent controls and tenant protections to make renting affordable for 'hard working families'. As returns in the rented sector fall, this will cause private landlords to divest and push more property onto a depressed property market, causing prices to fall further.

[danvandan] 14/7/2024 15:34

beckers, your 'educational standard' is poor. You don't know the difference between "you're" and "your" and all of your posts are littered with misspellings, poor grammar and faulty syntax. You post the evidence of your ignorance everyday and are not fooling anyone here. You're definitely 'working class' and for some reason, you seem to be ashamed of it.

[danvandan] 14/7/2024 15:28

Regarding TW; more bad news bubbling away - Ministers are looking at bringing in solar-related standards for new-build properties from next year.

Mandatory, solar panels and the associated equipment increase the cost for a new property. Higher costs mean lower affordability (fewer sales) and lower profits. Perhaps this is just 'noise', but if we see legislation forcing developers to improve the quality of houses, it could be another factor contributing to a huge slowdown in the property market.

[beckers2008] 14/7/2024 15:27

DvD,

I qoute you...

"beckers, from the standard of your writing (barely semi-literate) it seems obvious that YOU ARE WORKING CLASS, you berk"

What have I told you about getting emotional, you are obviously not an investor, as this is a golden rule, not to get emotional, lol!

If you look back at my posting history, you will not only learn about investing but also what educational standard I achieved, this may give you a clue as to my class?
Are you a class adverse Labour supporter, lol!

AND STOP SHOUTING. It is rude.

"DvD,

"my last increase was 149p" lol, yeah course it was!

SP breaking through resistance at £1.55 on strong volume today.
Support at £1.50 and strong support at £1.40.
Now, did I get that right DvD, lol!

How's your pitiful short at £1.3335 doing, lol, just lol!"

[beckers2008] 14/7/2024 15:12

K or should I call you Cretin,

The average house price in the UK as stated by the ONS was £283k in May 2022.
Not £295k as you have stated!
Why are you dilibrately misleading?

Tell me, when is the house price crash going to happen 40% peak to trough?

Tell me... Will the BOE Base Rate hit 6%?

[danvandan] 14/7/2024 14:57

beckers, from the standard of your writing (barely semi-literate) it seems obvious that YOU ARE WORKING CLASS, you berk. Middle class families educate their children. You clearly missed out on a half-way decent education. Do YOU have a house?

Working class people are the ordinary people of this country, state educated, and working for a living without the benefit of substantial inherited wealth.

And as for reading any of your previous posts, please explain who exactly would be interested in seeking out your boring gibberish?

[sikhthetech] 14/7/2024 14:07

Soldier

"Since 2008, underwriting criteria have continuously changed. Lenders have become more and more reluctant to fall into a negative equity situation."

Exactly. Trying to protect the lenders but without considering the problems homeowners and potential homebuyers face.
More and more are getting into severe mortgage debt. Those hundreds of thousands on 2-5fixed rate mortgages taken out when rates were low, now face double mortgage interest. That's on top of credit cards, loans, tax rises etc.

Homeowners with severe mortgage debt debt are increasing as are repossessions.

[beckers2008] 14/7/2024 08:48

K or should I say Cretin,

The working class have never been able to purchase a property, except Maggie's great give away, please read my post history and learn.

You really should try and not get so emotional (Gfy), lol!

You stated...
""Kreature - 10 Nov 2023 - 08:25:58 - 4893 of 4916
Well I'm shorting the lot PSN, BWY, RDW"" END.

Oh dear, it seems you are in the troll losers club along with the other village idiots, including Sikhthetech whose been wrong for 6 years, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 14/7/2024 03:42

The issue is affordability and scamming, not your nerd lessons. Gfy, ATB

[beckers2008] 13/7/2024 23:39

K or should I call you Cretin,

The average house price in the UK as stated by the ONS was £283k in May 2022.
Not £295k as you have stated!
You haven't made another mistake, haven’t you, lol!

Seems you are misleading, yet again, lol!

Tell me, when is the house price crash going to happen 40% peak to trough?

Tell me... Will the BOE Base Rate hit 6%?

[kreature] 13/7/2024 22:41

You forgot to factor in inflation becks, which inflates 295k to 325k over the 2 yr period, May 2022 to May 2024.

[beckers2008] 13/7/2024 20:32

Its 15% numpty.
If buts and maybes, but your figures are wrong.
The latest average house price is the highest ever, do keep up!

How's your short from the 10th November going, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 13/7/2024 18:58

Well if you sunk 295k (average house price at the time) into a house in May 2022 then sold it in May 2024 for 265k (average house price at time), then you lost £60,000 in real terms, which is nearly 20% so gfy. ATB