Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 22/6/2024 17:51

Doggywirthabone,

You should look at some of my posts where I back up with research that Taylor Wimpey are the most compelling investment in the house builder space.

DYOR.

[jugears] 22/6/2024 16:04

Bonedoggy,probably because Tw are the best hb.

[kreature] 21/6/2024 21:53

Ouch, £90k. I guess it’s only free money that could have gone to a charity?

[kreature] 21/6/2024 21:43

So if interest rates will be cut in August, is it best to delay buying a house until then ? Yet another reason for not buying a house now ?

[kreature] 21/6/2024 21:35

Help to buy , or help to enslave in decades of debt for hutches under estate management ? I’d rather live on a boat

[beckers2008] 21/6/2024 18:08

DvD,

Yeah, yeah, blah blah but shorts not increasing here, TW.

I have consistently said TW. Are the most compelling investment in the HB space.

""DanVanDan - 08 Apr 2024 - 09:12:56 - 28156 of 28224
Chart has broken through the support line. Nothing to stop this falling to the 100-110p area now. Interim divi ex date was 28 March, so a lot of short-term holders seem to be exiting. Just an observation; no need for people to get hysterical on here. I am short here -- full disclosure -- happy to see things going my way. 110p is my target price. No reason for alarm from people who intend holding for ever though." END.

Oh dear, your later to the party than Kreature(JS), it called it wrong on 10th Nov 23.

'Your happy to see things go your way' on 8th April, lol!
Your making a fool of yourself talking BS and you called it wrong, lol!

Another classic mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 21/6/2024 17:08

Shorts increasing on Crest and Barratt in today's FCA disclosure. Barratt in particular is now being shorted in a big way. Only positions above 0.5% of the company's shares are required to be reported - undisclosed positions could be significantly higher - today's reported shorts account for 3.56% of the company's shares. Qube Technologies have just disclosed their short on Barratt at 0.52%. These positions are being taken ahead of Barratt's next trading update on 10th July. The hedge funds anticipate more bad news, in line with recent results from Crest, Bellway and Berkeley. I expect the whole sector to take a dip. TW's turn comes at the end of July month.

Barratt's shareprice is already down 16% from its recent high in January. TW has a lot of catching up to do with its peers and is only 5% off a two-year high despite the same downward earnings prospects.

[beckers2008] 21/6/2024 16:03

Sikhthetech,

At least 30% pay cash for their properties in the UK and those remaining have less than a 95% LTV ratio.
As your always banging on about an affordability crisis, lol!
Please provide a breakdown of the figures because you seem to imply that you know every individual's debt value, lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 21/6/2024 14:51

Dan,

Re Help to Buy.

I believe the scheme was toxic. Apart from the interest rate, it opened the door for HBs to make money from onerous ground rents by selling properties as leasehold. The Tories have been trying to backtrack on leasehold etc but it was them who introduced the scheme. HBs manipulated the scheme.

Inflation severely impacted those on the scheme. Whoever wins, I believe there will be toxic loans appearing.




sikhthetech - 09 Aug 2023 - 13:21:09 - 15139 of 18224
<...>
Not forgetting Help to Buy scheme, which I'm saying was toxic.

5 years interest free loan followed by CPI linked interest.
The govn never imagined CPI would reach 10%+ when they introduced that scheme, did they?

PPI mk2


sikhthetech - 28 Sep 2023 - 12:11:16 - 16070 of 18224
<...>
The govn should not interfere into the market.

All the govn do by interferring is to make things worse. Take the Help to Buy scheme, HBs made hundreds of millions from the scheme, it helped push up house prices but it's toxic now that inflation is high.

[danvandan] 21/6/2024 14:40

SunshineToday, you make a good point. The reason that the shareprice is narrowly range-bound over many years is that the firm's equity is paid out in dividends, which is of course right and proper. TW is a simple business that builds houses, makes money and pays it to shareholders. But when that money stops coming in, the shares devalue because there is little intrinsic equity.

At the moment though, the shares have been inflated beyond that formula. A year ago, the firm reported poor results but said that everything was ok, because things could only get better. Six months ago, we got the same message, relying on predictions of lower mortgage rates and a return of buyers to the market. The investment community does not have boundless patience; I suspect that this third profit collapse will be a turning point and the shares will begin to reflect actual earnings. So far, the shareprice is defying financial gravity.

[danvandan] 21/6/2024 14:30

Excellent piece in the Guardian today:



How a disastrous Tory policy blew up the housing market

[beckers2008] 21/6/2024 13:12

sT,

Not if your average was £1.03 having purchased at 86p!
See the share price is holding above £1.40.

As I have consistently said TW. Are the most compelling investment in the HB space, shame some village idiot didn't take my advice, whilst losing their shirt on the dog TLY, lol, just lol!

[sunshine today] 21/6/2024 09:10

With respect, the share price here over the last decade of booming prices, has been dismal.

[beckers2008] 21/6/2024 08:28

Yeah, yeah, blah, blah DvD and you shorted at £1.33.35.
HB's flagged a 33% reduction in volume over a year ago and again in 24.
'A reduced dividend payout' you say, lol.
Ffs do some research!
Your telling a story which is 2 years old, keep up!

Welcome to the Tw. troll losers club along with the other village idiots, Sikhthetech, sT to mention a few, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 21/6/2024 01:47

And of course a trade journal like 'property eye' will talk up breathlessly, anything that it thinks is positive. The actual sale prices recorded by the land registry will be a better barometer of the market.

The ACTUAL news today is that interest rates were not reduced, not even by a quarter of one percent, even though inflation has allegedly reached 2%. Now people are talking about August as the potential month for lower interest rates, but the money markets are giving that likelihood about 50/50. Meanwhile, everyday, more and more people come to the end of their low fixed rate mortgage and doubtless some of them will decide to sell up and downsize, putting even more property on the market.

Eventually the boundless optimism displayed by a few people with their endless hype will have to give way to hard facts regarding TW's earnings - in six weeks.

[danvandan] 21/6/2024 01:40

'House prices' are not the same as sale prices. You will find that people have advertised their homes with optimistic selling prices in what is traditionally a busier time of year for home-buying. However, it remains very much a buyers' market. The number of homes for sale are reportedly at a ten-year high. Many people are trying to sell, but buyers are few. We will see in a mere six weeks how TW has fared this year. I see no reason to doubt that it will be any different to Bellway, Crest and Berkeley; fewer sales, reduced margins, lower earnings than 2023, which was a bad year.

Talk it up all you like, the proof will be in the numbers in black and white.

[beckers2008] 20/6/2024 23:49

From Propertyindustryeye...

UK house prices increased for their second consecutive month in April, latest official figures show, as the housing market continues to show signs of recovery as the economy improves.

The average UK house price increased by 1.1 per cent in the 12 months to April, according to a provisional estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This figure accelerated from 0.9% annual growth in the year to March and marked the second month in a row with an annual increase, after eight straight months of declines.

Sentiment in the housing market has shown signs of improvement this year despite mortgage rate remaining elevated and the Bank of England continuing to hold interest rates at 5.25%.

Separate data from the ONS yesterday revealed inflation returned to the government’s 2% target in May for the first time since July 2021.
However, the central bank is still expected to wait until at least August to cut interest rates. Its next meeting is scheduled this morning.

The ONS said house prices rose by 0.6% in England, 0.4% in Wales and 4.5 per cent in Scotland in the year to April.

The data also showed that average UK private rents increased by 8.7% in the 12 months to May, slowing from an 8.9% increase in April – which came after a rise of 9.2% in March.

[baracuda2] 20/6/2024 23:13

I totally agree with you jugs

[jugears] 20/6/2024 22:56

Well well well, buyers who were waiting for interest rates to fall are starting to proceed with purchase through fear of house price rising when interest rates start to fall,buyers don't go away they wait. IMO We are going to see a surge in house sales long before interst rates bottom out, as it will.be near on impossible to meet demand when it does increase I think we can safely say house price are going to rocket, it looks like my investment here that has now cost me nothing is going to double in value in the not to distant future. IMEO that turning point could now come at any time.

[beckers2008] 20/6/2024 16:17

sT, just in case you missed it due to your board hopping, lol!

sT,

Your comments allude to even ever increasing house prices as evidently is happening, unlike Sikhthetech's 6 year longing of a house price crash, lol!

Did you likewise short as the village idiot's DvD and Kretin, lol, just lol!

[jugears] 20/6/2024 15:37

The gov could buy cheap farm land & grant themselves planning permission instead of paying farmers to grow what is in effect bloody bird seed!

[lefrene] 20/6/2024 14:50

To make housing affordable go back to pre April 1974 credit rules. Gov might have to nationalise all building land, but then one would be selling houses and not selling grossly over priced patches of dirt.

Then with genuinely affordable homes, families can get established with enough free income post mortgage to enable them to buy goods and services that keep other people employed.

Plenty of room then for builders to actually build, and be less speculators of bits of dirt. Fast track apprenticeships to get unemployed youngsters into work. It can be done , it just takes the will to face off the Nimbies, and Townhall tyrants.

[sunshine today] 20/6/2024 14:40

News just out .


US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge To COVID Lockdown Lows

[jugears] 20/6/2024 14:35

I don't think we need to be worrying about labour shortages, there isn't one at the moment & when Labour get in construction other than houses will dry up, there will be plenty more labour then but even that wont allow hb's to build anymore than normal because the supply chain wont cope, as for affordable houses there is not a chance in this country, to little land & to many people wanting to buy houses, I wouldn't say hb's are refusing to build more houses Its just good business sense at the moment, build what you can comfortably sell, the plus side is that building less now is just going to make a bigger shortage when demand picks up & sadly those that have money will buy & those that don't will be pushed further down the ladder, either way its all good news for TW as far as I can see, Happy Days!
I haven't read in any small print where the hb's have struggled to sell any of the houses the chose to build? if you want a new house now you are looking at 18 months plus waiting time in most cases!