Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 02/7/2024 16:25

“ Cash buyers are fine,”

Well not , imv, if they’re getting scammed with a fake freehold house

[cupra kid] 02/7/2024 16:15

DVD - The guy that went short at a much lower price than today. You can almost smell the desperation in each post.

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 16:07

Jugears, affordability means home-buyers with average earnings having the money to pay the monthly mortgage. Interest rates have gone up by around 4% - fixed rate mortgages are around 6% today where previously they were less than 2%. To arrive at a monthly mortgage similar to when rates were low, a buyer would need to spend around £100k less on a home. That's a massive drop when the average property in England is £300k.

If you look at the way that people buy property, many seek the biggest mortgage they can get in order to buy the best house that they can afford at the time. A great many of those people will not be able to find an extra £1k or more each month to service their mortgage when their low fixed rate finishes. Some will mitigate the additional cost by extending their mortgage or paying the interest only (essentially the same thing) and a lot of these people (we are talking about tens of thousands of homeowners) will recognise that they are living in a property that they can't afford and they will attempt to sell. The flood of these semi-forced sales has barely started, but it can be seen in the rising number of properties on the market; currently at a 10-year high despite all of the house-builders scaling back their new builds by 20-30%.

As far as new properties are concerned, the addressable market has shrunk drastically for the affordability reason. People who would've bought a TW house with a £250k mortgage and £50k in cash are priced out. Cash buyers are fine, but they are the minority and since it is now a buyers' market, cash buyers will of course negotiate lower prices. That is why we are seeing the house-builders talking about incentives and 'stability' in the pricing, but we are right at the start of this new affordability environment. Nationwide has reported a 25% drop in the number of new mortgages. Further price falls are inevitable. Negative equity will follow. Distressed sales will follow that.

This situation is fragile and it will only take a couple of additional factors to turn this 'soft' sales environment into a stampede for the exit and a price crash.

[jugears] 02/7/2024 14:52

Sickly, as far as I am aware Tw have planning for circa 80,000 plots that about 5 years of work at 14k plots a year. so even if planning takes a lot longer they are more than covered,As far as I can see there is no major labour shortage either so there is nothing to stop them cranking up production when the time is right, as far as affordable homes goes, what actually is an affordable home & how do you build a home any cheaper than any other? its land prices that dictate prices closely followed by availability, if you are only building houses to supply those that can afford to buy a home why even bother about affordability for the ones that can't?

[kreature] 02/7/2024 14:47

‘ If you're going to try to use American slang, you should at least try to get the context right’

Lol

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 14:24

DvD,

Check my posting history to check out your 'recently' tag!

You post the same negative nonsense as the other village idiot, just 2 years too late, you and it are not one of the same, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:59

beckers, you claimed recently that you bought TW sub £1.

What does 'ripped it a new one' mean in terms of posting on advfn? If you're going to try to use American slang, you should at least try to get the context right. Again, you come across as very thick. This is reinforced by your meaningless and idiotic use of 'lol'. If you want to be part of the conversation on this board, write something sensible.

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 13:53

DvD,

Be careful assuming you know my position, lol!
Sikhthetech incorrectly assumed my position on PSN and I ripped it a new one, lol, just lol!

I have no interest in your emotion, but emotionally you are losing, lol!

You say TW's peers!! Lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:50

Btw, shorts are climbing at Barratt. Two more hedge funds declared positions yesterday and Barratt's reported shorts (this doesn't include any short positions under 0.5% of the total shares) are now at 4.36%. This is one of the highest and only needs another two more shorters to push above the 0.5% threshold for Barratt to be in the top five most shorted shares on the LSE. Paradoxically, the Barratt share price is rising ever so slightly and this will likely just amplify the fall when it comes. Barratt reports on the 10th of this month. EXPECT A READ-ACROSS TO THE TW SHAREPRICE (a corresponding fall) when Barratt's dire results come out.

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:38

beckers, with all due respect (and you are due very little), you're the one who needs to do some research. You could start by reading the trading updates from TW's peers. If you think that the TW share price will not be negatively affected by its trading update at the end of this month, you're almost certainly in for a shock. And btw, reposting your false gibberish does not endear you to anyone here, so when the shock comes, you're unlikely to get any sympathy.

My short average is not 133p. I added a little to my existing short position in the 130s as I said at the time, but I entered higher, and I've added further to it in the high 140s/150p area. It's still a relatively small position and I'm ready to pile into it if I see an immediate short term opportunity. I've mentioned all of this before.

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 13:35

DvD,

Do some research, this is a TW. BB.
Read Tw. Reports and watch presentations and learn...

You keep posting old news that TW. indicated nearly 2 years ago, lol!

Now you tell us you have increased your short, lol!
Earnings are increasing in 2025.

You need to learn the difference between Support and Resistance regarding your pitiful TA short call at 1.33.35!!
You can't start telling porkies now!

Lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:30

beckers, you really don't have the intelligence for this. You should cash in your TW shares now and be happy that you're ahead, because you'll become very sad and bitter when your gains are wiped out.

Regarding being 'late to the party', no, I think my timing is possibly a few weeks early, but the right moment was probably a few weeks back at 152p.

Regarding 'points two years out of date' again you are wrong. My posts are about what is happening right now and the immediate future. That should be obvious to you.

My short is not 133p. I added a little to my existing short position in the 130s but I entered higher, and I've added further to it in the high 140s/150p area. It's still a relatively small position and I'm ready to pile into it if I see an immediate short term opportunity. I've mentioned all of this before.

Sikhthetech's price crash prediction - well, timing the market is the perpetual challenge of investors, and if he's kept up a long running commentary on this, it doesn't mean he's wrong, he may just have been an early forecaster of something which is undeniably true. I agree with STT's central argument that property is grossly overvalued at the moment.

Incidentally, your bad grammar and spelling and the constant reposting of juvenile name calling makes you look a bit thick. 'Your simply...' should be 'You're simply...'

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 13:12

DvD,

Your simply late to the party, nearly two years too late and your points are two years out of date.

At least your short is at £1.33.35, pitiful call, lol, but better than Kreature on November 10th last year, lol!

But the best call of all is the Sikhthetech house price crash prediction every year for the last 6 years, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 02/7/2024 13:04

Jugears,

"the point is though none of us know if they could have sold more because they didn't build more, why would hb's want to fix affordability problems? how would building more houses & selling cheaper benefit them????? "

That's the point. As DVD also points out.

The problem isn't there's huge demand but affordability. If Labour win, they promise is to build 1.5m houses, 300k a year. How will they achieve that?

It's not HBs role to fix affordability but they claiming that they can't build more houses because of planning restrictions - really!!!!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 12:58

beckers you seem to be reposting the exact same gibberish post many times and adding nothing to the debate here..

Regarding a potential house-price crash, well let's hope it doesn't happen, but there are many things which could trigger it from where we are right now, such as:

* Accelerating unemployment - if Labour crashes the economy, we could see widespread unemployment which curtails new mortgages and causes thousands more indebted people to try and sell their homes, creating over-supply and a runaway price fall.

* Increased capital gains tax - many people, especially buy-to-let landlords, could try to sell property ahead of any big changes to capital gains tax, leading to over-supply and price falls.

* A resurgence in inflation - leading to even higher interest rates and causing more home repossessions and house sales, leading to over supply, price falls etc...

The most dramatic disasters usually have multiple contributing factors, so perhaps we will see all three of the above! If you want to know WHEN this is happening, I suggest you take a look at this board from time to time - posters here will probably be giving updates. 😁

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 12:43

""Beckers2008 - 28 Dec 2022 - 16:07:12 - 11929 of 18291

BOE Base Rate at 6%. Absolutely no chance.""

Seems I was correct.

Now when is this house price coming,lol!

I see Dire Keir clocks off at 6pm every Friday, lol!
A British PM stop working Friday evening, where is the decision making, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 12:36

jugears, sikhthetech is essentially correct in that the housebuilders HAD to reduce their production or face a drop in sales (due to over supply) and start a price war with each other, which would then reduce their profitability percentages.

Interesting that you suggest that they all did the exact same percentage reduction - seems like anti-competitive cartel behaviour. Maybe worth the govt looking into it. Oh wait... they're already investigating!

And btw, new home prices ARE NOT RISING. At best they're static, but they could be falling slightly. Either way, we have passed the very peak of the house price curve and we seem to be now looking at a long roller-coaster descent. The only real question is; will it be steep or gradual?

[jugears] 02/7/2024 12:28

sick,None of the hb's were forced to build less houses it was a unanimous decision by all to cut production, strangely by exactly the same percentage, as none have said that they struggled to sell any & so far all have given TU's bang on as expected by the majority of investors, except some on here who seem surprised that building an agreed number of less houses has also reduced profits(its not rocket science lol) & also seem to have missed when all hb's reported early last year that production would be cut by about a third, the point is though none of us know if they could have sold more because they didn't build more, why would hb's want to fix affordability problems? how would building more houses & selling cheaper benefit them????? if you have 250,000 customers for 200,000 new homes then it isn't difficult to see why new home prices are rising, if you have another 200,000 people wanting to buy 500,000 homes then you can see why prices may fall in the older sector, although in reallity anyone that has bought a house in the last two years has seen its price rise by at least 10%, unless it was owned by a REIT!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 12:27

And as for Labour 'making things worse' well, maybe. But I'd say that reducing a stamp duty threshold is an incentive to house-builders to build 'affordable' housing. TW will not like it much because they would have to build more units to make the same revenue, with higher costs and lower net profits. Again, more downward pressure on the share price here, which I am sure you will be delighted to experience.

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 12:22

Beckers, the answer is out there already and it is 'yes'. Inevitably interest rates will hit 6% at some point, and possibly next year. Take a look at a UK interest rate chart for the last 50 years and you'll see that interest rates have usually been above 6% and have even reached 15-17% in extreme circumstances.

The head of the Bank for International Settlements had some interesting things to say on this subject a couple of days ago:


Soaring government debt could roil global financial markets, warns BIS head
Agustín Carstens says world economy on course for ‘smooth landing’ after inflation but political turmoil poses risk.

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 12:18

And Labour are just about to make matters worse...

Labour stamp duty crackdown will make first-time buyers £7,000 worse off
Would-be homeowners take a hit as party plans to reduce threshold to £300,000.

Still at least Dire Kier can put his feet up after 6pm on a Friday, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 02/7/2024 12:08

The problem is affordability. Increasing housebuilding won't fix affordability problems. If increasing housebuilding fixed the problem then HBs wouldn't have been forced to build fewer properties.


There are hundreds of thousands coming off 2-5yr fixed rate mortgages, taken out when rates were low. Those homeowners will face double or more increase in the interest they pay on their mortgage premiums.


Making mortgages easier for new homebuyers won't fix affordability.

More and more are in mortgage debts.

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 12:06

Seems I was correct, nothings changed there...

""Beckers2008 - 16 Nov 2023 - 09:49:29 - 4929 of 5592
k, sT, U, Sikhthetech,et al,

In case you missed it, the normal idiotic posts from mug-punter 'Sikhthetech' lol!

"UK house prices suffer first annual fall since 2012"

The village idiot is going to print, to prove it's self a village idiot, yet again lol!

So not since 2018, lol!
Only 5 plus years wrong, lol, just lol!

BoE Base rate at 6%?
Absolutely no chance."" END

So, are BoE Base rates gonna hit 6%?
Come on trolls answer the question?