Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 14:30

beckers, you really don't have the intelligence for this. You should cash in your TW shares now and be happy that you're ahead, because you'll become very sad and bitter when your gains are wiped out.

Regarding being 'late to the party', no, I think my timing is possibly a few weeks early, but the right moment was probably a few weeks back at 152p.

Regarding 'points two years out of date' again you are wrong. My posts are about what is happening right now and the immediate future. That should be obvious to you.

My short is not 133p. I added a little to my existing short position in the 130s but I entered higher, and I've added further to it in the high 140s/150p area. It's still a relatively small position and I'm ready to pile into it if I see an immediate short term opportunity. I've mentioned all of this before.

Sikhthetech's price crash prediction - well, timing the market is the perpetual challenge of investors, and if he's kept up a long running commentary on this, it doesn't mean he's wrong, he may just have been an early forecaster of something which is undeniably true. I agree with STT's central argument that property is grossly overvalued at the moment.

Incidentally, your bad grammar and spelling and the constant reposting of juvenile name calling makes you look a bit thick. 'Your simply...' should be 'You're simply...'

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 14:12

DvD,

Your simply late to the party, nearly two years too late and your points are two years out of date.

At least your short is at £1.33.35, pitiful call, lol, but better than Kreature on November 10th last year, lol!

But the best call of all is the Sikhthetech house price crash prediction every year for the last 6 years, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 02/7/2024 14:04

Jugears,

"the point is though none of us know if they could have sold more because they didn't build more, why would hb's want to fix affordability problems? how would building more houses & selling cheaper benefit them????? "

That's the point. As DVD also points out.

The problem isn't there's huge demand but affordability. If Labour win, they promise is to build 1.5m houses, 300k a year. How will they achieve that?

It's not HBs role to fix affordability but they claiming that they can't build more houses because of planning restrictions - really!!!!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:58

beckers you seem to be reposting the exact same gibberish post many times and adding nothing to the debate here..

Regarding a potential house-price crash, well let's hope it doesn't happen, but there are many things which could trigger it from where we are right now, such as:

* Accelerating unemployment - if Labour crashes the economy, we could see widespread unemployment which curtails new mortgages and causes thousands more indebted people to try and sell their homes, creating over-supply and a runaway price fall.

* Increased capital gains tax - many people, especially buy-to-let landlords, could try to sell property ahead of any big changes to capital gains tax, leading to over-supply and price falls.

* A resurgence in inflation - leading to even higher interest rates and causing more home repossessions and house sales, leading to over supply, price falls etc...

The most dramatic disasters usually have multiple contributing factors, so perhaps we will see all three of the above! If you want to know WHEN this is happening, I suggest you take a look at this board from time to time - posters here will probably be giving updates. 😁

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 13:43

""Beckers2008 - 28 Dec 2022 - 16:07:12 - 11929 of 18291

BOE Base Rate at 6%. Absolutely no chance.""

Seems I was correct.

Now when is this house price coming,lol!

I see Dire Keir clocks off at 6pm every Friday, lol!
A British PM stop working Friday evening, where is the decision making, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:36

jugears, sikhthetech is essentially correct in that the housebuilders HAD to reduce their production or face a drop in sales (due to over supply) and start a price war with each other, which would then reduce their profitability percentages.

Interesting that you suggest that they all did the exact same percentage reduction - seems like anti-competitive cartel behaviour. Maybe worth the govt looking into it. Oh wait... they're already investigating!

And btw, new home prices ARE NOT RISING. At best they're static, but they could be falling slightly. Either way, we have passed the very peak of the house price curve and we seem to be now looking at a long roller-coaster descent. The only real question is; will it be steep or gradual?

[jugears] 02/7/2024 13:28

sick,None of the hb's were forced to build less houses it was a unanimous decision by all to cut production, strangely by exactly the same percentage, as none have said that they struggled to sell any & so far all have given TU's bang on as expected by the majority of investors, except some on here who seem surprised that building an agreed number of less houses has also reduced profits(its not rocket science lol) & also seem to have missed when all hb's reported early last year that production would be cut by about a third, the point is though none of us know if they could have sold more because they didn't build more, why would hb's want to fix affordability problems? how would building more houses & selling cheaper benefit them????? if you have 250,000 customers for 200,000 new homes then it isn't difficult to see why new home prices are rising, if you have another 200,000 people wanting to buy 500,000 homes then you can see why prices may fall in the older sector, although in reallity anyone that has bought a house in the last two years has seen its price rise by at least 10%, unless it was owned by a REIT!

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:27

And as for Labour 'making things worse' well, maybe. But I'd say that reducing a stamp duty threshold is an incentive to house-builders to build 'affordable' housing. TW will not like it much because they would have to build more units to make the same revenue, with higher costs and lower net profits. Again, more downward pressure on the share price here, which I am sure you will be delighted to experience.

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 13:22

Beckers, the answer is out there already and it is 'yes'. Inevitably interest rates will hit 6% at some point, and possibly next year. Take a look at a UK interest rate chart for the last 50 years and you'll see that interest rates have usually been above 6% and have even reached 15-17% in extreme circumstances.

The head of the Bank for International Settlements had some interesting things to say on this subject a couple of days ago:


Soaring government debt could roil global financial markets, warns BIS head
Agustín Carstens says world economy on course for ‘smooth landing’ after inflation but political turmoil poses risk.

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 13:18

And Labour are just about to make matters worse...

Labour stamp duty crackdown will make first-time buyers £7,000 worse off
Would-be homeowners take a hit as party plans to reduce threshold to £300,000.

Still at least Dire Kier can put his feet up after 6pm on a Friday, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 02/7/2024 13:08

The problem is affordability. Increasing housebuilding won't fix affordability problems. If increasing housebuilding fixed the problem then HBs wouldn't have been forced to build fewer properties.


There are hundreds of thousands coming off 2-5yr fixed rate mortgages, taken out when rates were low. Those homeowners will face double or more increase in the interest they pay on their mortgage premiums.


Making mortgages easier for new homebuyers won't fix affordability.

More and more are in mortgage debts.

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 13:06

Seems I was correct, nothings changed there...

""Beckers2008 - 16 Nov 2023 - 09:49:29 - 4929 of 5592
k, sT, U, Sikhthetech,et al,

In case you missed it, the normal idiotic posts from mug-punter 'Sikhthetech' lol!

"UK house prices suffer first annual fall since 2012"

The village idiot is going to print, to prove it's self a village idiot, yet again lol!

So not since 2018, lol!
Only 5 plus years wrong, lol, just lol!

BoE Base rate at 6%?
Absolutely no chance."" END

So, are BoE Base rates gonna hit 6%?
Come on trolls answer the question?

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 12:39

Btw, shorts are climbing at Barratt. Two more hedge funds declared positions yesterday and Barratt's reported shorts (this doesn't include any short positions under 0.5% of the total shares) are now at 4.36%. This is one of the highest and only needs another two more shorters to push above the 0.5% threshold for Barratt to be in the top five most shorted shares on the LSE. Paradoxically, the Barratt share price is rising ever so slightly and this will likely just amplify the fall when it comes. Barratt reports on the 10th of this month. Expect a read-across to the TW share price when Barratt's dire results come out.

[danvandan] 02/7/2024 11:44

Rightly so, jugears. High interest rates are a curse, but even if the BoE reduces rates by a measly 0.25%, the mortgage providers will not necessarily immediately reduce their rates, and those that do will be unlikely to pass on a full quarter point reduction. What is more relevant is the number of mortgage holders who are coming off the ultra-low rates of recent years; they are in their thousands and many will choose to attempt the sale of their homes to gain the equity they've built up and reduce their monthly outgoings. The number of properties for sale is at a ten-year high and this will go even higher, adding to the 'buyers' market' and depressing prices further. House prices will remain flat or even go into reverse, depending on how unemployment goes (hopefully we won't have a recession) and inflation will continue to impact housebuilders' costs and their earnings.

I see that Berkeley have got planning permission for 2,100 homes on an old gas storage site, more than 50% of their current annual output. If the project doesn't kill their company with cost over-runs, it'll point the way for brownfield development. Similarly, Vistry and Bloor have just got permission for 800+ homes on another brownfield site. That's just two projects this week; there's plenty of competition out there for housebuilders, and I don't see any immediate prospects for TW to suddenly up production and generate its historic level of profitability.

What I do see are thousands of newly built houses up and down the country, and schools are closing because they don't have enough pupils! The housing shortage is a myth. The only problem with housing is that it's a massive asset bubble waiting to burst. The balancing act govt and industry is attempting to pull off is a slow deflation of house prices rather than a crash. If prices stay flat for a decade, the UK will have had a lucky escape, and I think that's the outcome that everyone is aiming for.

[jugears] 02/7/2024 10:29

Becks, they will be on holiday until September when they get in to power, so apart from buying opportunity I don't see much happening in the markets but I do think that there will be a lot of pressure to reduce interest rates maybe as early as the next meeting.

[beckers2008] 02/7/2024 09:36

""Beckers2008 - 28 Dec 2022 - 16:07:12 - 11929 of 18291

BOE Base Rate at 6%. Absolutely no chance.""

Seems I was correct.

Now when is this house price coming,lol!

I see Dire Keir clocks off at 6pm every Friday, lol!
A British PM stop working Friday evening, where is the decision making, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 02/7/2024 04:35

‘ High mortgage rates pricing out buyers, says Nationwide ‘
‘ transactions involving a mortgage are down by nearly 25% over the past year,’

[beckers2008] 01/7/2024 14:54

K,

Can you let posters know, when is the house price crash going to happen, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, it's a no from the market.
Seems the trolls and some of them have been wrong for 6 years, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 01/7/2024 14:11

‘ So if transactions are only down 15% why have hb's cut production by 30 plus percent? ‘

Cos just getting started

[uhound] 01/7/2024 12:27

You do know the Nationwide HPI is only based on its own mortgage approvals and covers only a small number of the total market transactions etc?

House prices are down in many areas across the country if you look at OFNS.

But anyone involved in the industry will tell you the same. Broadly speaking there has been a decline in prices in most areas. Why - affordability.

[jugears] 01/7/2024 11:19

Prices were up 1.5% from a year earlier, but Nationwide said, external activity in the housing market had been "broadly flat" over the past 12 months, with transactions down by about 15% compared with 2019.

So if transactions are only down 15% why have hb's cut production by 30 plus percent?
It seems to me that hb's could be building & selling more if they wanted to, this was echoed by sites before I fully retired, several said they could sell more if they were allowed to build more! Perhaps an over reaction from the hb'S?????

[kreature] 30/6/2024 11:22

O/t linden homes review on TP
‘ Rated 1 out of 5 stars
7 Mar 2019
Buy a freehold Linden Home at your peril particularly if there is a communal area for which you have to pay initially a modest service charge. Once the development is complete they will throw you to the wolves - literally. In all probability First Port management will be appointed and then the fun starts!!! Read all about First Port and it will open your eyes. Your freehold property will become almost unsalable after a few years with increasing service charges for unnecessary and questionable work. You have been warned!!
Date of experience: 07 March 2019

[kreature] 29/6/2024 17:39

Possibly in the middle of total wipeout if you factor in the cost of living and inflation and the ‘scamming̵7;
Imo