Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 17:07

I'm not convinced by the 'quite a different builder' distinction to be candid sikh. They both build houses. House-building is not rocket science. If PSN buys CALA, then evidently they see value in the assets. It'll need to be a real bargain though in this market; house prices aren't going up and volumes are going down. It's an interesting time...

But again, the same point if PSN doesn't do the deal; it'll be further confirmation of the poor prospects for new build houses of £300k plus.

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 16:57

CALA isn't just a competitor to TW.

They have also worked in partnership on projects. The 2 companies work in similar areas, similar property types, ie upper end of the market.





PSN on the other hand, sees opportunity to move into previously untapped market:

"“Cala Group is quite a different housebuilder to Persimmon’s existing operations. While Persimmon currently focuses on the affordable end of the market (average sale price is £285k), Cala operates at a much higher price point (£495k), c. 75% higher than a typical Persimmon home. That might offer Persimmon an opportunity to move into a previously untapped segment of the market, however it does come with risk. Persimmon has built up a highly profitable business at the lower end of the market, and has limited experience running a business like Cala. We might expect that such an acquisition would erode the company’s operating margin down a level more typical for housebuilders generally."

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 16:55

The shorts on Barratt are really gathering momentum; another increase reported today bringing the total reportable shorts (positions over 0.5% of the company's shares) to 4.26%. If just two more shorters cross the reportable threshold, Barratt will be the fifth most shorted share on the LSE. Barratt is publishing a trading update in the morning.

Interestingly, Qube seem to have mistimed their short on Crest and have reduced it a little. Almost everyone else is hanging tight and Worldquant have reduced theirs a fraction (reported today).

[danvandan] 09/7/2024 16:45

Not understood by you, obviously. CALA build homes across the country. They've got sites in the south, similar to TW. Sky journalists are usually pretty good with their business reporting; they're unlikely to run a story like this if there's nothing behind it. No one needs to put an RNS out if it's just a preliminary discussion. Evidently it didn't get much further than that.

I can see both sides here; there's no real incentive for TW to buy CALA if they've no intention of increasing production. But at the same time, if there's the chance to grab a good quality landbank at low cost, you'd think they would want that. That said, I don't really see the value in taking out one direct competitor when they've got at least a dozen others to contend with.

The more important point here is this; L&G want to sell their house-building firm because they don't consider it a strong and profitable business. TW don't want to buy it because they agree. That suggests that both L&G and TW believe that house-builders are in for a difficult few years.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 16:31

Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

I wonder what sources they supposedly Were???? no RNS from Wimpey, note the price tag says AT LEAST 1 BILLION POUNDS, also note it says UNDERSTOOD but does not say where the source has officially come from, my contacts at TW were not even aware that TW had made any formal offer for CALA homes, even Legal & general haven't released an RNS either, any way this was not a good fit, Scotland is a very difficult place to build houses, no competition for Tw. Cala build a lot of Flats & higher end houses, Tw have a broad mix & sites spread across the country, you can open a hell of a lot of new sites with 1 billion if you want to build more houses. I note this originated in the beano for investors The

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 16:11

Both TW & CALA build on same developments/areas.

Here's just 2 of them, so CALA are a direct competitor. They are being auctioned cheaply at around £1bln.

Here's another, Glasgow... both selling 5bed detached in Maidenhill...




CALA are a direct competitor, so would have been a perfect fit for TW.
They are being auctioned off cheaply with reports of around £1bln.
TW obviously couldn't afford them as it would have meant a huge placing and cut in divi, which is unaffordable in an uncertain housing market.

Taylor Wimpey drops out of Cala Homes auction

"Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

Fellow FTSE 100 developer Persimmon remains in the running but is also being encourged to raise its offer.

One source told The Times that private equity firms look the most likely buyers because they can avoid offering shares and make a straight cash offer."

Cala and Taylor Wimpey are building hundreds of homes at the West Craigs site in Edinburgh.





The fact CALA is being sold cheaply says a lot about the housing market and valuations attached to other HBs.

[jugears] 09/7/2024 15:52

Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

I wonder what sources they supposedly Were???? no RNS from Wimpey, note the price tag says AT LEAST 1 BILLION POUNDS, also note it says UNDERSTOOD but does say where the source has come from, my contacts at TW were not even aware that TW had made any formal offer for CALA homes, even Legal & general haven't released an RNS either, any way this was not a good fit, Scotland is a very difficult place to build houses, no competition for Tw. Cala build a lot of Flats & higher end houses, Tw have a broad mix & sites spread across the country, you can open a hell of a lot of new sites with 1 billion if you want to build more houses. I note this originated in the beano for investors The TIMES!!!!!

[sikhthetech] 09/7/2024 14:26

Jugears
Re TW & CALA homes

"One site"

Here's another, Glasgow... both selling 5bed detached in Maidenhill...




More evidence then.
CALA homes is a direct competitor to TW. It would have made sense for TW to buy CALA as it is cheaply priced. TW can't afford to, as they would have to raise funds and cut the divi in an uncertain housing market.

[craftyale] 09/7/2024 08:12

Sept 22 share price was approx 88p today 155p. Plus 19p of divs. A 98 percent gain. We need more houses says Labour. I love this share. 160p very soon.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 23:09

Sikhthetech,

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 22:22

Jugears,

"one site lol"
It's one site compared to no overlap which you were claiming.

Again, you shrug off any evidence, yet provide none from your side.

The point is CALA is being sold off cheaply. TW can't afford them but it also shows how much the market values HBs, given the uncertain housing market.

"Joined your friends Filtered"

What, again!!! How many times have you claimed to filter me...lol
Your pretend filtering never lasts long, does it?


"think I will spend a bit more time over on the Tly site stiring things up"

Wow, you really are very rattled about HBs share price crashing, aren't you?

You can't see my TLY thread if you've filtered me, doh!!! So obviously you'll never be able to post on it...doh!!

[jugears] 08/7/2024 22:00

Wow one site lol oh lol,I am more than sure Tw offered what they thought it was worth not sensible to pay over the odds, a lesson I am sure they will have learned taking over Taylor Woodrow homes, why pay over the odds for circa 3k houses a year when you can just ramp your own production up on land you own already? it couldn't have been any formal offer as we haven't had an rns. The best decision though for the company & share holders IMEO

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 20:23

Sikhthetech,

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 20:10

shaf200,

"Surprised we didn't see more movement in share price today"

Because what the govn have said so far is not good news for HBs.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 20:09

Jugears
"A very limited area & looking at locations I only see a couple where they could even possibly be competing with TW, as I said a very poor fit & nothing officially announced by TW in an RNS"

"The limited area that they cover is obviously why it is cheap & seemingly unsalable"

Really, you are clueless.

TW and CALA are building homes on the same development in Edinburgh.
The article clearly states TW have pulled out after their bid was rejected. They can't afford to pay any more!!!!


Taylor Wimpey drops out of Cala Homes auction

"Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

Fellow FTSE 100 developer Persimmon remains in the running but is also being encourged to raise its offer.

One source told The Times that private equity firms look the most likely buyers because they can avoid offering shares and make a straight cash offer."

Cala and Taylor Wimpey are building hundreds of homes at the West Craigs site in Edinburgh.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 20:04

Jugears,

"Who are labour going to push to build all these homes, where will the man power come from?, I can guarantee now that Labour will not hit their 300k yearly target"

That's the point. Labour will struggle and if they are to keep their promise then they will have to take drastic action. The 300k is a mandatory target.
Gov are already talking about compulsory purchase so that they can meet their targets. Watch out, those compulsory purchases might not be restricted just to land.

Windfall tax on HBs would be a great way for the govn to gain much needed funds to setup an organisation to meet their targets.

[shaf200] 08/7/2024 19:07

Surprised we didn't see more movement in share price today...

[jugears] 08/7/2024 18:53

Sick, just a point I forgot to mention, Tw have sites spread evenly across the uk, Cala's sites are either Scotland (Edinburgh/Glasgow or within 8o miles of London(East & south east, nothing between Peterborough or Edinburgh, A very limited area & looking at locations I only see a couple where they could even possibly be competing with TW, as I said a very poor fit & nothing officially announced by TW in an RNS, The limited area that they cover is obviously why it is cheap & seemingly unsalable, although TBF I think its over priced considering its operating area Either way these offer NO competition to TW in any way whatsoever, Perhaps do your home work in future old man, incidentally I don't see any reason why Tw. would not be able buy them? I don't thing for one minute they would struggle to raise funds, either way TW up TLY down, All as expected!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 17:08

DVD,

Exactly.

In any business, if a direct competitor was put up for sale cheaply any business would jump at the chance of taking them over, even if it's to eliminate the competition. Assuming they didn't break competition rules, I think it's because TW couldn't afford them as it would have meant a placing(last was 4 years ago at 145p) and loss of dividend . Too high a risk given the current uncertain housing market.



sikhthetech - 27 May 2024 - 23:19:03 - 17992 of 18385
Jugears,
Why L&G are selling now?


Cala homes sale price is reported to be around £1bln.

Compare the financials with other HBs, like PSN/TW.

That tells you everything you need to know about the uncertain housing market and current valuations being achieved by HBs.

CALA - fy2023

Revenue : £1.255bln
PBT: £112m
Units sold: 2917
OM 10.9%
Contracted landbank: £8.8bln

And it's being sold for around £1bln..




TW:
Revenue: £3.5bln
PBT: £473m
OM: 13.4%

Current Mcap: £5.2bln

<...>
I'd say PSN/TW are hyped.

Best to trade hyped sectors.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 17:05

DvD,

What a load of waffle!

Your simply late to the party, nearly two years too late and your points are two years out of date.

At least your short is at £1.33.35, pitiful call, lol, but better than Kreature on November 10th last year, lol!

But the best call of all is the Sikhthetech house price crash prediction every year for the last 6 years, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 08/7/2024 16:48

The fact that Legal and General are trying to sell CALA right now says a lot about their view on the future prospects for house-building in the UK. The fact that TW doesn't want to buy it reinforces that view.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 16:33

Jugears,

"why do Tw need Cala? not a very good fit IMEO"

Hindsight again.

CALA are a competitor to Taylor Wimpey. They were also cheap compared to other HBs, yet TW couldn't afford them.

If a competitor takes over CALA then it puts downward pressure on TW.