Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 21:22

Jugears,

"one site lol"
It's one site compared to no overlap which you were claiming.

Again, you shrug off any evidence, yet provide none from your side.

The point is CALA is being sold off cheaply. TW can't afford them but it also shows how much the market values HBs, given the uncertain housing market.

"Joined your friends Filtered"

What, again!!! How many times have you claimed to filter me...lol
Your pretend filtering never lasts long, does it?


"think I will spend a bit more time over on the Tly site stiring things up"

Wow, you really are very rattled about HBs share price crashing, aren't you?

You can't see my TLY thread if you've filtered me, doh!!! So obviously you'll never be able to post on it...doh!!

[jugears] 08/7/2024 21:00

Wow one site lol oh lol,I am more than sure Tw offered what they thought it was worth not sensible to pay over the odds, a lesson I am sure they will have learned taking over Taylor Woodrow homes, why pay over the odds for circa 3k houses a year when you can just ramp your own production up on land you own already? it couldn't have been any formal offer as we haven't had an rns. The best decision though for the company & share holders IMEO

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 19:23

Sikhthetech,

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 19:10

shaf200,

"Surprised we didn't see more movement in share price today"

Because what the govn have said so far is not good news for HBs.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 19:09

Jugears
"A very limited area & looking at locations I only see a couple where they could even possibly be competing with TW, as I said a very poor fit & nothing officially announced by TW in an RNS"

"The limited area that they cover is obviously why it is cheap & seemingly unsalable"

Really, you are clueless.

TW and CALA are building homes on the same development in Edinburgh.
The article clearly states TW have pulled out after their bid was rejected. They can't afford to pay any more!!!!


Taylor Wimpey drops out of Cala Homes auction

"Taylor Wimpey is no longer pursuing Cala Homes after its owner Legal & General knocked back an initial bid for the housebuilder, according to sources.

L&G put Cala on the market with a sale tag of at least £1 billion and it is understood that Taylor Wimpey’s opening gambit was too low.

Fellow FTSE 100 developer Persimmon remains in the running but is also being encourged to raise its offer.

One source told The Times that private equity firms look the most likely buyers because they can avoid offering shares and make a straight cash offer."

Cala and Taylor Wimpey are building hundreds of homes at the West Craigs site in Edinburgh.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 19:04

Jugears,

"Who are labour going to push to build all these homes, where will the man power come from?, I can guarantee now that Labour will not hit their 300k yearly target"

That's the point. Labour will struggle and if they are to keep their promise then they will have to take drastic action. The 300k is a mandatory target.
Gov are already talking about compulsory purchase so that they can meet their targets. Watch out, those compulsory purchases might not be restricted just to land.

Windfall tax on HBs would be a great way for the govn to gain much needed funds to setup an organisation to meet their targets.

[shaf200] 08/7/2024 18:07

Surprised we didn't see more movement in share price today...

[jugears] 08/7/2024 17:53

Sick, just a point I forgot to mention, Tw have sites spread evenly across the uk, Cala's sites are either Scotland (Edinburgh/Glasgow or within 8o miles of London(East & south east, nothing between Peterborough or Edinburgh, A very limited area & looking at locations I only see a couple where they could even possibly be competing with TW, as I said a very poor fit & nothing officially announced by TW in an RNS, The limited area that they cover is obviously why it is cheap & seemingly unsalable, although TBF I think its over priced considering its operating area Either way these offer NO competition to TW in any way whatsoever, Perhaps do your home work in future old man, incidentally I don't see any reason why Tw. would not be able buy them? I don't thing for one minute they would struggle to raise funds, either way TW up TLY down, All as expected!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 16:08

DVD,

Exactly.

In any business, if a direct competitor was put up for sale cheaply any business would jump at the chance of taking them over, even if it's to eliminate the competition. Assuming they didn't break competition rules, I think it's because TW couldn't afford them as it would have meant a placing(last was 4 years ago at 145p) and loss of dividend . Too high a risk given the current uncertain housing market.



sikhthetech - 27 May 2024 - 23:19:03 - 17992 of 18385
Jugears,
Why L&G are selling now?


Cala homes sale price is reported to be around £1bln.

Compare the financials with other HBs, like PSN/TW.

That tells you everything you need to know about the uncertain housing market and current valuations being achieved by HBs.

CALA - fy2023

Revenue : £1.255bln
PBT: £112m
Units sold: 2917
OM 10.9%
Contracted landbank: £8.8bln

And it's being sold for around £1bln..




TW:
Revenue: £3.5bln
PBT: £473m
OM: 13.4%

Current Mcap: £5.2bln

<...>
I'd say PSN/TW are hyped.

Best to trade hyped sectors.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 16:05

DvD,

What a load of waffle!

Your simply late to the party, nearly two years too late and your points are two years out of date.

At least your short is at £1.33.35, pitiful call, lol, but better than Kreature on November 10th last year, lol!

But the best call of all is the Sikhthetech house price crash prediction every year for the last 6 years, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 08/7/2024 15:48

The fact that Legal and General are trying to sell CALA right now says a lot about their view on the future prospects for house-building in the UK. The fact that TW doesn't want to buy it reinforces that view.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 15:33

Jugears,

"why do Tw need Cala? not a very good fit IMEO"

Hindsight again.

CALA are a competitor to Taylor Wimpey. They were also cheap compared to other HBs, yet TW couldn't afford them.

If a competitor takes over CALA then it puts downward pressure on TW.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 15:29

DVD,

"Many new Labour initiatives will encourage the sale of property,"

Exactly. Many investors think building more homes is good for HBs.
The fact Labour are encouraging (and will push) private companies to invest and build more homes when the HBs themselves want to build fewer because of affordability is a real worry.

Building more homes doesn't address the real problem facing the housing market - affordability.

[danvandan] 08/7/2024 14:58

A lot of name calling on here and only the bears talking any sense.

First of all, production numbers: TW has voluntarily reduced production because it's seen a smaller market due to affordability constraints caused by the higher monthly costs of mortgages. TW can easily increase production. It isn't labour shortages, nor is it 'planning permission'. This is true of all of the housebuilders.

Labour's commitment to affordable homes is NOT an opportunity for TW, because TW doesn't build for that market. An 'affordable home' is a two bedroom property in or near a town (where there are jobs) at a price of around £160,000 without a ruinous fleece-hold arrangement. That is the type of property that can be bought by a teacher or a nurse. Median salary in the UK is about £35k. The people who will build these homes are housing associations and builders at the lower end of the market (eg Vistry). Profits will be meagre, to the point that innovative sourcing of land will be a key requirement for this type of development.

Property prices: prices are going to stagnate at best or fall. As has been pointed out here many times recently, properties for sale are at a ten-year high; it's a buyer's market. Labour will depress pricing further IF they are successful in ramping up production in this already over-loaded market. Also, 'no fault' evictions are ending immediately, apparently. This is the the thin end of the wedge for landlords - Labour is promising controls on rent rises and other protections for renters. This will add to the number of landlords who divest property. More homes coming onto the market means more downward pressure on pricing.

Many new Labour initiatives will encourage the sale of property, including changes to inheritance tax, causing older landlords to sell up and find other ways of passing their wealth to their younger family.

TW share price: the market has reacted to the prospect of more houses and decided that this must be good for all housebuilders. TW's shareprice has hit another two-year high. It will not last. When the initial excitement dies down and TW sales and profits continue to disappoint, investors will become more realistic about TW's prospects and the shareprice will get down to a sensible valuation. Barratt reports on Wednesday; we may get a sense of direction at that point.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 14:24

Sikhthetech,

What an idiot you are, compulsory purchase of land in leafy constituents in Southern England that are now sitting Labour MP's...
NIMBY New Labour MP's.

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 14:08

To back up my point about compulsory purchase, oversupply, future subdued house prices...


More homes could STOP house price growth
The balance between supply and demand is another important factor in the health of the housing market.

If Labour really does build 1.5million homes in the next five years, that could result in an extra 65,000 homes coming on to the market each year than in 2023 when 235,000 homes were built, according to Government data.

More houses being available could also keep prices lower.

Just over a month ago, Zoopla reported the number of homes on the market has reached the highest level in eight years. It said the choice available to home buyers was helping to keep house prices in check, and that they had fallen by 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to April.

Too little supply means real house prices are five times higher today than they were 50 years ago, according to analysis by Capital Economics - whereas in the rest of Europe they are less than three times higher.

Andrew Wishart, a senior economist at Capital Economics argues that if Labour succeeds with its housebuilding targets, this could keep a lid on house prices.

'In the long run, we think a Labour Government will mean that house prices rise less quickly than we have become accustomed to,' said Wishart.

'Over the past 50 years, UK house prices have risen much more quickly than those in the rest of Europe because of insufficient supply.

'Labour is more likely to be able to meet the 300,000 new home target than the current government because it won't face as much opposition to making planning rules more favourable to development from its own MPs.

'Partly that is because it has a large majority, and partly that is because its voters are less likely to be homeowners than the Conservatives'.

'Moreover, the party's plan to reform compulsory purchase laws means it could require land a little more cheaply, which would help it to deliver more social houses and raise the speed at which the private sector builds homes.'

Wishart is also expecting Labour to continue to target buy-to-let landlords making property less attractive from an investing perspective, removing potential buyers from the market.

He adds: 'It is likely to make buy-to-let investment less attractive, reducing the demand from investors.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 13:44

Sikhtheteck,

I qoute you...

"compulsory purchase of land and huge increase in social housing will undermine house prices"

What an idiot you are, compulsory purchase of land in leafy constituents in Southern England that are now sitting Labour MP's... Yeah, right!
If Labour brought about house price reduction, they would make themsleves, unelectable for decades.

The most built a few years ago was 275,000 homes.
Many baby boomers in the building trades have now retired early, in their late 50's early 60's and some have moved overseas. The UK hasn't the labour required to build 300,000 pa, unless...

I'm surprised you haven't been banging on about bringing back all the Eastern European labour you stated had left the UK.
Dire Keir could all but overturn Brexit, leading to mass immigration to build 300,000 pa? Mass nett migration will also make Labour unelectable.

Starmer has already lost 2024 as all builders have reduced production by 33% so that's 1.5 million divided by 4.5 years so over 330,000 pa. No chance.

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 12:57

Soilderboy,

"The country is broke. Only more borrowing. If we were a business, the receivers would have been in decades ago."

Exactly. The govn lack of money. Hence why the govn is asking businesses to invest in HB.

They have also announced a 'mandatory' 300k pa building program.

How will that be possible when HBs, themselves, reduced the amount they are building?

Dangers of oversupply.

compulsory purchase of land and huge increase in social housing will undermine house prices.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 12:04

Good for you, gbh2.

[gbh2] 08/7/2024 11:58

Having received a decent Premium Bond win, I picked up another 5K this morning :)

[jugears] 08/7/2024 11:26

Good job, never pays to over expand or over stretch in business!