Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 16:29

DVD,

"Many new Labour initiatives will encourage the sale of property,"

Exactly. Many investors think building more homes is good for HBs.
The fact Labour are encouraging (and will push) private companies to invest and build more homes when the HBs themselves want to build fewer because of affordability is a real worry.

Building more homes doesn't address the real problem facing the housing market - affordability.

[danvandan] 08/7/2024 15:58

A lot of name calling on here and only the bears talking any sense.

First of all, production numbers: TW has voluntarily reduced production because it's seen a smaller market due to affordability constraints caused by the higher monthly costs of mortgages. TW can easily increase production. It isn't labour shortages, nor is it 'planning permission'. This is true of all of the housebuilders.

Labour's commitment to affordable homes is NOT an opportunity for TW, because TW doesn't build for that market. An 'affordable home' is a two bedroom property in or near a town (where there are jobs) at a price of around £160,000 without a ruinous fleece-hold arrangement. That is the type of property that can be bought by a teacher or a nurse. Median salary in the UK is about £35k. The people who will build these homes are housing associations and builders at the lower end of the market (eg Vistry). Profits will be meagre, to the point that innovative sourcing of land will be a key requirement for this type of development.

Property prices: prices are going to stagnate at best or fall. As has been pointed out here many times recently, properties for sale are at a ten-year high; it's a buyer's market. Labour will depress pricing further IF they are successful in ramping up production in this already over-loaded market. Also, 'no fault' evictions are ending immediately, apparently. This is the the thin end of the wedge for landlords - Labour is promising controls on rent rises and other protections for renters. This will add to the number of landlords who divest property. More homes coming onto the market means more downward pressure on pricing.

Many new Labour initiatives will encourage the sale of property, including changes to inheritance tax, causing older landlords to sell up and find other ways of passing their wealth to their younger family.

TW share price: the market has reacted to the prospect of more houses and decided that this must be good for all housebuilders. TW's shareprice has hit another two-year high. It will not last. When the initial excitement dies down and TW sales and profits continue to disappoint, investors will become more realistic about TW's prospects and the shareprice will get down to a sensible valuation. Barratt reports on Wednesday; we may get a sense of direction at that point.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 15:24

Sikhthetech,

What an idiot you are, compulsory purchase of land in leafy constituents in Southern England that are now sitting Labour MP's...
NIMBY New Labour MP's.

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 15:08

To back up my point about compulsory purchase, oversupply, future subdued house prices...


More homes could STOP house price growth
The balance between supply and demand is another important factor in the health of the housing market.

If Labour really does build 1.5million homes in the next five years, that could result in an extra 65,000 homes coming on to the market each year than in 2023 when 235,000 homes were built, according to Government data.

More houses being available could also keep prices lower.

Just over a month ago, Zoopla reported the number of homes on the market has reached the highest level in eight years. It said the choice available to home buyers was helping to keep house prices in check, and that they had fallen by 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to April.

Too little supply means real house prices are five times higher today than they were 50 years ago, according to analysis by Capital Economics - whereas in the rest of Europe they are less than three times higher.

Andrew Wishart, a senior economist at Capital Economics argues that if Labour succeeds with its housebuilding targets, this could keep a lid on house prices.

'In the long run, we think a Labour Government will mean that house prices rise less quickly than we have become accustomed to,' said Wishart.

'Over the past 50 years, UK house prices have risen much more quickly than those in the rest of Europe because of insufficient supply.

'Labour is more likely to be able to meet the 300,000 new home target than the current government because it won't face as much opposition to making planning rules more favourable to development from its own MPs.

'Partly that is because it has a large majority, and partly that is because its voters are less likely to be homeowners than the Conservatives'.

'Moreover, the party's plan to reform compulsory purchase laws means it could require land a little more cheaply, which would help it to deliver more social houses and raise the speed at which the private sector builds homes.'

Wishart is also expecting Labour to continue to target buy-to-let landlords making property less attractive from an investing perspective, removing potential buyers from the market.

He adds: 'It is likely to make buy-to-let investment less attractive, reducing the demand from investors.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 14:44

Sikhtheteck,

I qoute you...

"compulsory purchase of land and huge increase in social housing will undermine house prices"

What an idiot you are, compulsory purchase of land in leafy constituents in Southern England that are now sitting Labour MP's... Yeah, right!
If Labour brought about house price reduction, they would make themsleves, unelectable for decades.

The most built a few years ago was 275,000 homes.
Many baby boomers in the building trades have now retired early, in their late 50's early 60's and some have moved overseas. The UK hasn't the labour required to build 300,000 pa, unless...

I'm surprised you haven't been banging on about bringing back all the Eastern European labour you stated had left the UK.
Dire Keir could all but overturn Brexit, leading to mass immigration to build 300,000 pa? Mass nett migration will also make Labour unelectable.

Starmer has already lost 2024 as all builders have reduced production by 33% so that's 1.5 million divided by 4.5 years so over 330,000 pa. No chance.

Tell me, when is your long awaited (over 5 years) 40% peak to trough house price crash going to happen?
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, all a No for all those years, lol!

Your a clueless mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2024 13:57

Soilderboy,

"The country is broke. Only more borrowing. If we were a business, the receivers would have been in decades ago."

Exactly. The govn lack of money. Hence why the govn is asking businesses to invest in HB.

They have also announced a 'mandatory' 300k pa building program.

How will that be possible when HBs, themselves, reduced the amount they are building?

Dangers of oversupply.

compulsory purchase of land and huge increase in social housing will undermine house prices.

[beckers2008] 08/7/2024 13:04

Good for you, gbh2.

[gbh2] 08/7/2024 12:58

Having received a decent Premium Bond win, I picked up another 5K this morning :)

[jugears] 08/7/2024 12:26

Good job, never pays to over expand or over stretch in business!

[spudders] 08/7/2024 09:16

TW. Pulled out of CALA bidding 👍🏻

[soilderboy] 08/7/2024 08:23

The trouble is that it can't be fixed. The country is broke. Only more borrowing. If we were a business, the receivers would have been in decades ago.

[jugears] 07/7/2024 23:23

I've only ever sold 100k shares here at 1.80 having bought 200k at 98p, I don't trade shares, I don't need to,I had an extremely profitable company that allowed me to build a fully owned property portfolio of 20 properties,on top if this I sold my company out for a very large sum of money, I don't need to sell any shares as I don't need the money,I've.only ever bought & sold TLY & EZJ in a short space of time & neither with large sums of money, now & again I will sell a holding in a company if Im bored or feel it's not performing, but in general I buy & hold long term, obviously with shares its a paper fortune unless you sell them but as they are all owned by me, bought & paid for what is the problem? You don't have to cash things in.
I truck we know that most of what labour plans is put in the sky, they want reach 300k housing target each year , they may be near in their last year of office but I doubt it. Interest rates will fall & housing production will increase just enough to keep house prises rising,I think Labour will need to tread extremely carefully, if it wants to keep the voters on its side, taxing people will just alienate them & not spending money will alienate them, housing is an extremely important issue & he is going to need hb's on his side if he wants to get anywhere near his target but as we know even with h2b the conservatives couldn't do it. My friend was round today he said this weekend he has seen a big upturn in people visiting his Web site & shops,he thinks that now we have certainty buyers are starting to come back, we will see but I think the next 18 months could be very interesting.

[sikhthetech] 07/7/2024 18:37

Jugears,

You obviously haven't read Labour's plans for Housebuilding.


As to making a fortune, everyone knows that's BS. You claim you never sell any shares, not just TW. but any other shares, so how would you have made money?????

You become a trader when the share price is rising and a long term, never selling, investor when the share price is falling. Not forgotting, your claims re what HBs execs told you never came true....
Says it all, doesn't it?


Re TLY. Yet again, try reading and understanding Labour's plans on the NHS. It makes no difference to me what happens to TLY as it's only 1 other share of mine but if Labour proceed as they have stated....

[jugears] 07/7/2024 18:15

Starting to look a very good place to be, I can see £1.80 looming on the horizon in my christal ball, this is not a sector I would want to he short in,but then surely know one would be stupid enough to be short here would they????, I mean know one is that thick are they????

[craftyale] 05/7/2024 12:59

Every penny is over a thousand pound gain. Go TW. Roll on the div.

[beckers2008] 05/7/2024 12:33

Seems I was correct, nothings changed there...

""Beckers2008 - 16 Nov 2023 - 09:49:29 - 4929 of 5592
k, sT, U, Sikhthetech,et al,

In case you missed it, the normal idiotic posts from mug-punter 'Sikhthetech' lol!

"UK house prices suffer first annual fall since 2012"

The village idiot is going to print, to prove it's self a village idiot, yet again lol!

So not since 2018, lol!
Only 5 plus years wrong, lol, just lol!

BoE Base rate at 6%?
Absolutely no chance."" END

So, are BoE Base rates gonna hit 6%?
Come on trolls answer the question?

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2024 12:26

Jugears

Why did HBs cut the number they were building? Was it for fun or lack of demand? Why was there lack of demand - due to affordability, as I and others consistent assertions?

At the time, you were claiming HBs were busy as ever and there were no plans to reduce number of builds. Wrong.

Completely different from your claims, isn't it?


TU - Apr:

Teams working hard.
market uncertainty
affordability
assuming supportive market conditions


"While we are mindful of ongoing market uncertainty and affordability challenges, it is pleasing to see continued market stability supported by good mortgage availability and sustained customer confidence. Our teams are working hard on the ground to support our customers through the buying process, underpinned by our strong marketing strategy and the quality and location of our homes, which are driving good levels of interest.

Looking ahead, we are confident that we have a strong and resilient business supported by a high-quality, well-located landbank. We remain focused on driving value and investing in the long term sustainability of the business, and we remain on track to deliver our guidance for 2024 while ensuring we are positioned for growth from 2025, assuming supportive market conditions.""

[jugears] 05/7/2024 12:11

Sikh, Did hb's really cut production to meet demand or to meet demand they thought they would have????, not one has mentioned in any of there Tu's that they have struggled to sell any of those houses that they built, talking to people in the industry recently & several have mentioned that they could sell more if management allowed them to build more,I think Hb's have just taken a very cautious approach that seems to be working extremely well, There will not be a state owned house builder under any circumstances, the cost to set up would result in extreme backlash, I can't see labour operatives working for a low budget organisation for lower wages either, not everyone wants an affordable home, my friends in the industry were telling me only last week that 3/4/5 bed houses are in demand at the moment, we are limited to the number of houses we can physically build in this country & even more limited in being able to build enough houses for those that can afford a house so why even bother about building cheaper houses, that is what housing associations do, there is also a risk of over supplying the so called affordable housing market, although to me affordable would be £100k,but something we will never see!
How do you know the thousands of people coming of fix rate mortgages wont be able to afford rate hikes? everyone has different circumstances, I agree some may be affected but a long way of all people! Perhaps your clouded judgement is holding you back??? you would have been much better selling TLY @21p when I suggested & putting the money in to RR which I think should easily make £6 by the end of next year.

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2024 11:57

gbh

"Reform never had a chance, those that voted reform do not understand how our electoral system works."

That shows your lack of understanding.
Yet again, you completely miss the point.

UKIP/Brexit Party were never going to win yet it shook up the Tories and led to the Brexit referendum, didn't it?

Reform gained huge numbers, even if they only won a couple of seats. Labour will have to listen and answer to Nigel Farage directly, as he is now a MP. No more ignoring him.