Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[supernumerary] 05/10/2023 16:49

The inability of pension funds to invest in so-called long term and more volatile assets has been a subject of discussion for some years now. Everyone recognises it's a problem, which is why LTAFs were introduced:





But I can't see much effect so far - maybe the situation will improve as they gain ground. It's also possible the government will take further steps in this direction. Sadly it's all bone-grindingly slow...

[spookies] 05/10/2023 14:56

Just been flicking through the Surface Transforms website and found an interesting research note titled Liquidity - shrinking when its most needed. there is a paragraph which quotes "over the past 25 years, uk pension funds have reduced their allocation to equities from 73% to 27% - and they have slashed their allocation to uk equities from 53% to just 6%."
This would explain to some degree why sce and the general market has been lagging.

[quemaster] 05/10/2023 13:45

Yes delayed reporting, showing as 08:46 trade time. Interestingly none of the MMs have changed their prices so far today which you would expect after a trade of 200k, we currently have four on the bid at 25p and one on the offer at 26p.

[balcony] 05/10/2023 10:31

I think that 200K will be a delayed trade.

[back5pace] 05/10/2023 09:54

Robin bell Spoke too soon!

[robinbell] 05/10/2023 09:41

You can currently sell/buy 50k shares for 25.62 - 25.98 so I guess right now all trades are going to show as buys. And no big wedge of shares sold this morning ( yet).

[pinkfoot2] 04/10/2023 14:58

It’s a terrible market out there and it fells like we have just got caught up in it-I’m not ramping but I do think this is a great company(eventually)so the future looks very bright to me.All the stars are aligned so it’s down to execution of the ramp up programme

[ps56] 04/10/2023 13:46

Good to see some decent buys going through today.

[microscope] 04/10/2023 12:25

Yes pinkfoot, they forecast a break even second half (including a profit in Q4). That obviously would convert to a 5.5 million pre-tax loss for the year.However if they can achieve overall break even in H2, then the next outlook will be crucial in attracting new institutional Investors.Hopefully by then I will have joined you on the shareholder register!

[pinkfoot2] 04/10/2023 12:09

Well they say they will be turning a profit in the next 6 months, then it will climb away.Heard nothing to suggest otherwise

[microscope] 04/10/2023 11:58

Company has always been of interest, since I held for a while in Ofex times. But that historical context, I think, explains, in part, the current shareprice.

I seem to recall at the time (early 2010s) a 3-5 year 'road to profit'.

Obviously since then the company has had successful equipment and materials testing, trials, production ramp-ups and a series of OEMs. That it's taken a bit longer than expected in itself isn't surprising, or necessarily off-putting to committed believers.

However we are talking over ten years now and if you'd told me the latest interims, in September 2023, would show increased losses, even before exceptionals, and still no sign of a profit, I would have been truly shocked back near the start.

So, I suspect, the market has finally run out of patience as the endless stream of issues and delays (some might say excuses) has finally taken its toll on the shareprice. A valuation of 60 million even now some will see as too high, despite the obvious exciting growth prospects.

The price factors in less expectation, certainly, than the over-optimistic valuation back at 70p, but for now the burden of proof lies with the company and until they begin to show better numbers, is probably fair.

To the company's credit, the latest issues seem to be properly sorted, but profitability might be aa way off yet.

Hopefully the sellers won't hold sway for much longer but for now, as bones's buys show, they remain in control. The 3 year chart was indicating possible capitulation when 28p gave way and you could argue now is the final fifth Elliott wave, if you believe in charts of course

I've switched from a from a distance watcher to a potential buyer at this level, but I'd like to see the selling show evidence of drying up, even if it means I were to pay a little more. Until then though, I suspect any bounce will be shortlived.

Good company.

[bones] 04/10/2023 11:08

Despite scars in my hands from previous efforts to catch falling knives, I have been tempted to buy heavily this morning at prices below 25.5p. In fact, for one of my smaller accounts, 10k could be bought for 25.05p, when the quote was 25-26. As cheese666 says, there is a large seller (or more?) supplying at these prices. As stated, I believe these are simple cases of lightening portfolios across the board given the scare stories about imminent toppling of the US markets which are still looking elevated.

Who knows, but I always had a target number of shares to hold in SCE and I feel 25p is a price I would have grabbed with both hands a few months ago and I don't see how the picture has worsened for SCE's business case itself, so long as they can continue to grow production and keep their supply chains resilient.

[cheese666] 04/10/2023 09:04

I added again yesterday. Another £10k in addition to £10k top up last week. It's cheap at this level. Some one is selling, therefore depressing the price even further. Once that's over, and we have better figures in a few months time, this level will look like a bargain.
A decent contract announcement might not help the share price but, it's obviously fantastic for the business, which is the main concern and will feed through to the share price in time.

[geko5trade] 04/10/2023 07:31

Swiss Paul, I think you are right to highlight how easy it would be in a thin bear market to keep the share price depressed. There are some chunky holdings there and institutions or individuals can decide to reduce for a myriad of reasons unrelated to the company’s underlying performance.

[guitarsolo] 03/10/2023 16:57

Toffeeman, if that is true then I am a polling genius and don't even know it.

[toffeeman] 03/10/2023 16:49

Only premium peeps can vote down!

[guitarsolo] 03/10/2023 16:36

Tightfist (7965). Regarding the IHT tax relief available to some AIM stocks, is it really that much of a concern to investors? I would have thought only to those who are within a few years of "the end"! But we must have a wide range of people by age (and health) on here so why not conduct a straw poll:

Vote up if the IHT tax relief was NOT a consideration for you to invest in SCE (because it is AIM).
Vote down if the IHT tax relief WAS a consideration to invest in SCE (because it is AIM)

[fevertreeman] 03/10/2023 15:49

Well put! Markets generally taking fright at bond yields with US t-10 at 4.75%, and 2 year bonds yielding a might 5+5, as bond market is effectively saying its definitely higher for longer on rates. Jitters over there feed into jitters over here...but we have the added sentiment problems of Brexit, Truss,etc

[toffeeman] 03/10/2023 15:46

Looking at slide 16 of the presentation - there is one Brand that stands out: as BMW is a part owner of Brembo - interesting dual sourcing!

The other two of interest are Corvette and Nissan because as far as I can work out these may well be the next two contracts they tell us about.

We need to remember that SCE is not standard fit on any model except Koenigsegg and they are tiny in volume terms. Basically we are at best an option and for the most part an aftermarket kit.

The tipping point will come when SCE is part of the configurator (it's not there on the Plaid configurator, only as part of the Track package) - perhaps the top of the range Lucid might be the first?

[bones] 03/10/2023 15:39

I don't think the share price weakness is entirely company-specific. The UK-centred indices from FTSE250 down to smallcaps have taken a hammering lately (all down another 1.5%+ just today) and the selling in big chunks smacks of institutions lightening up across the board as debt becomes ever more expensive along with inflation. It doesn't help the UK that the government of the day should rename themselves the Chipperfields with their current antics. Governance is important to portray. Where is it at a national level?

Institutions know companies will be going bust but well run individual ones are likely to be chucked out with the bathwater when it comes to asset allocation by institutions who are themselves generally run in a herd-like fashion with one eye on quarterly and year end valuations.

We have to trust that SCE have got their calculations right for getting across this cash flow "kink". The latest presentation has them turning a profit in the now current Q4. If they are right about that, this could be the low point. Meantime, batten down the hatches while this selling wave burns itself out!

[supernumerary] 03/10/2023 15:20

robin - I don't normally watch trading - life is too short - but took a look today and was struck by the same thing - wodges of 50K sales appearing as soon as there's a little slack in the market. Do you have any idea of total volume, or who the seller might be?

There might be an institution that's obliged to sell by its fund rules given the fall in value of any holding they have.

[fevertreeman] 03/10/2023 15:11

Yes, I see the same. Either s/o is lightening their holding as they feel this is dead money for a while, or the still downbeat messaging (breakeven, big cash reversal, queries over ramp up, and concerns about another share raise) has caused them to cut n run.

[robinbell] 03/10/2023 15:03

There is a constant seller in the market. They sell almost every day and if the shares get taken up they sell some more. Been going on for a while.I want some more but I'm waiting to see if the seller is looking like they are finished.

[gagarin] 03/10/2023 14:57

Just added two lots of 20000. Both shown here as sells ( they were bought below mid price which surprised me ) Makes me wonder about the prior wave of red.