Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[pinkfoot2] 27/9/2023 12:29

So many people have absolutely no idea how complicated a hockey stick growth curve is to manage.

The clever bit here is the addition of the new capacity-back up, capacity, less stress on the production line.We are in very good shape

Throw in the customer order book and 60pc plus GM, the quality of the OEMs, the lack of competition,the EV space, and you have a fantastic opportunity.It’;s all down to execution.

As for naming OEMs, that’s down to what’s in the contract -been there and it’s difficult to disclose if you’re told not to.

The risk here for me is being taken out by PE too early!

[fevertreeman] 27/9/2023 12:25

This would be so much better if they were to come clean about the customer base. Its incredible that one can read about them supplying brakes to named companies elsewhere but they wont let us know who they are officially. The OEMs must surely by now realise that this is to their advantage, and would be a key driver to the equity story, and get the share moving etc.....

[davwal] 27/9/2023 12:17

Maybe there's a business to be developed bespoking industrial furnaces, given they are so pleased with themselves on that score. Might turn a profit quicker...

[bdaonion] 27/9/2023 12:01

Agree pf2. FWIW people may spooked all the "Sells" showing, but currently 26.09 is the buy price, and looking back at the trades, a great many were clearly buys, not sells.

[geko5trade] 27/9/2023 11:58

I agree with all of that too. However, whilst the market may reflect short term view, that long term chart is bloody awful. Ok I was going to put them in an old Clark's shoe box but I'll stick them in the one my hand made Rokker motorcycle boots came in.
Well it's an upgrade...

[bagpuss67] 27/9/2023 11:48

That's the way I feel too.

[pinkfoot2] 27/9/2023 11:42

Here’s my view -headlines

-they don’t need cash and no plans to raise.Any hiccups can be dealt with by asset finance

-the numbers put forward are on soft side.Deliverable but low ball so no bad surprises

-I think £30m t/o next year is achievable at between 60 and 65pc gross margin

-new FD is superb and definitely free thinking

-operationally things are sorted

-customers very supportive

-the US customer is getting most attention and taking most production

Im very bullish-and the shares look crazily cheap to me.Market takes a short term view as we know but I think this company is in a great position to push on

[ayl30] 27/9/2023 11:13

I sold out earlier but am tempted to go back in at current pricingThey seen to describing that slump is over and customers have remained loyal, the techies at theses will be familiar with getting companies like SCE into profitability

[geko5trade] 27/9/2023 11:12

Look forward to reading that. You might ask that they shut down the insider trading from the leak that happens 24hrs before the announcement after someone has read it. I suspect they are long term followers and you'll be able to trace where they sold yesterday and bought back today. I should have paid more attention to the chart and less to the story on this one. I'm taking them out of the bottom drawer and putting them in a shoe box at the back of the garage.

[pinkfoot2] 27/9/2023 09:09

As I say, I will post a summary of the chat on Friday.

Ramping production was never going to be a shoe in-let’s hope it’s on home run now

[bagpuss67] 27/9/2023 08:49

Well hopefully the new FD will get a grip of that and increase the rigour of financial planning. I'm optimistic they will and that beefing up the ops team will also help. Maybe it's a great time to invest in this company for those not jaded by the last year.

[swiss paul] 27/9/2023 08:42

Aint the best 6 months is it. Some surprises in there especially about energy costs when all along we have been told its a fixed deal to 24. I think that surmises the whole problem with the co. Not enough planning or reviewing of plans being carried out and allowing issues to slip through that should have been identified.

[bagpuss67] 27/9/2023 08:34

Surely this year's margin adversely impacted assume the forecast is cautious on that for next year. Either way an impressive GM. Any comment on cashflow for the next 2 six month periods in that note. I guess as they ramp up invoicing they could get am ID line/ ABL facility if needs be which might see them through. Thanka

[pugugly] 27/9/2023 08:31

Feels like a big undeclared sales iceberg - Buys at 25.74 being recorded as sales.

[pinkfoot2] 27/9/2023 08:24

update. Revenues +15% to £3.3m, Adj pretax loss of £4.7m (vs loss £2.5m) LPS at 1.7p. Gross cash £4.5m down £10.4m reflecting capex and higher operating costs to deal with Q1 technical challenges.
H2 expected to be breakeven with production continuing to ramp up giving Q4 profit.
Production difficulties resolved and additional furnace capacity enables production ramp up.
Expecting an additional contract award in 2023.
Forecasts: Revenues downgraded to £13m from £16.2m, with FY pretax loss of £4.7m and LPS of 1.6p. Year end gross cash at£1.4m. In FY24 on maintained revenue of £30.5m, gross margin now at 60% consistent with this year. This results in adj Pretax profit from £4.9m to £3.1m, with a 29% reduction in EPS to 1.5p.
Maintained TP at 120p, based on P/E of 15x the £150m footprint due in 2025

[pinkfoot2] 27/9/2023 08:17

I disagree-the cash is not far away from expected.Hardly worth a raise for that.

I’m very confident-and I don’t do emotion with money

[bones698] 27/9/2023 08:14

Agreed they are getting closer but will they need to raise before break even . Looking at gose figures I suspect they will given the lag in revenues and going concern rules etc . I believe there will be another raise and a chance to buy in lower that's how I see it

[amanitaangelicus] 27/9/2023 08:13

Con artists ...

[pinkfoot2] 27/9/2023 08:11

I’m not a ramper-I say it how it is.

Not sure what anyone expected after a poor first quarter-this RNS simply confirms the course is set fair.

The pipeline isn’t a pipedream-it’s confirmed and the gross margin at 60pc is very attractive.

It’s all about execution for me-has been since they raised money for the new ovens for an uplift in capacity

[bones698] 27/9/2023 08:07

And yet it's down ..talk and ramp all you like the figures in those results didn't paint a good picture and they are a very long way from breakeven with limited cash available .

This is one I've watched for a long time and like the tech but breaking into the automotive industry is a lot more difficult than people on here seem to think . Unfortunately the time it takes requires a lot of patience and money to stay the course and this still has a long way to go before revenues hit the required amount to negate raising more .

Sub 20p coming until funding gets sorted

[bagpuss67] 27/9/2023 07:54

Pinkfoots next chance to frontrun a raise.

.. only joking... Good to have someone close to the board on here...

[pinkfoot2] 27/9/2023 07:50

I don’t think they need cash

I’m on a board presentation call this week and will post a summary

[rivaldo] 27/9/2023 07:50

The historic numbers are poor as expected given everything we already know about.

But the report reads well to me as regards going forward - cash is within reasonable bounds of expectations so shouldn't be problematic unless there are more snafus, the customers are extremely supportive, production is now on track and prospects and pipeline are huge.

Good to see SCE state "further OEM contract awards expected in H2-2023".

[longshanks] 27/9/2023 07:47

The cash is much lower than I would care for, but I am also relieved that the ramp up over the summer has continued unaffected.Raising additional funds seems inevitable to fund the significant increase in cash-flow needed next year . Not something I relish the thought of, but funding cash-flow requirements might be cheaper/easier than the historic cash raises needed for development Some nice challenges for our new CFO.