Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[ekuuleus] 18/11/2019 07:37

What's sirius got to do with Jersey?

Priced in usd. Ouch.

[johnwise] 18/11/2019 07:24

Sirius Minerals Major Shareholders




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[kirtonender9] 18/11/2019 07:22

Is that the best you can do?Pathetic individual.

[lendmeafiver] 17/11/2019 20:24

Thanks for the comments and interesting input today holidayfunds. Well as I said I would I bought into SXX last week in a series of purchases around 3.2p, already up.

I just really couldnt ignore USD11bn of NPV, I’ve never come across an opportunity to buy the equity in a company for circa £250m with that level of NPV.

[clotted cream] 17/11/2019 20:09

Are you are realistic with pricing of poly4, say 110 and are realistic about volumes say 10M tonnes?

Without question high volume production will require pricing to drop closer to MOP equivalents than pure SOP chloride free pricing.

The NPV is zero unless you believe this is coming in ahead of 2018 projected numbers in terms of timing and capital costs at poly4 volume and price above?

[holidayfunds8] 17/11/2019 19:21

Short positions have indeed gone full out to drive the share price into the ground - but their idea that it would collapse back to 2 pence or 1 pence has not materialised. I have been seeing 2 pence and 1 pence and NIL predictions for a while now, but it has not come to pass. Rather, players were eager to pick up shares every time the share price dipped down just below 3.

The hedge funds also now know that there is a very real chance of a Partner deal being announced in the very near future and they might then need to unwind their 400+ million shares position in a hurry.

And to just suggest that the overall $NPV associated with the mine project is 'irrelevant' just seems bananas to my mind. Surely, this is the core metric for any mine construction investment project? The project always needed to be financed, so that is a well-known feature. It was just rather ambitious to think that bonds / external debt would be eager to stump up the entire remaining investment.

Anyway, I can't see this soap opera continuing for too much longer, and I'd be surprised if we did not get a Partner equity RNS this side of Xmas. Partners are either attracted to get into this now, or they are not - this should have been on their radar since the July to Sept period, so they should have been looking at the details for a while now. Things could go beyond New Year, but Chris Fraser has already acknowledged that he fully understands that time is very much of the essence now.

David

[redirect12] 17/11/2019 17:15

You are correct it's only a small decrease but if the hedge funds shorters believed this was going under then they wouldn't reduce there short position but increase.
Imo they'll be news if not tomorrow soon.
All contractors contracts extended everything is in full swing as if the deal is done.
Adverts for new staff but that's imo

[johnwise] 17/11/2019 16:54

Sirius Minerals Major Shareholders




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[not my real name] 17/11/2019 16:36

Holidayfunds,

"say, $600 million in return for a 40% stake"
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I would say more like $600m for a minimum 75% stake. This still leaves $2.5bn to be raised from elsewhere later on.

The dilution would just keep on coming and that is why I think they will struggle to find a strategic partner. I subscribe to the administration route followed by complete takeover by third party giving them 100% control.

That's why I see no value in the current shares. What the mine will eventually be worth is irrelevant in my view.

It would also appear to be the view of the hedge funds.

NMRN

[holidayfunds8] 17/11/2019 14:23

Just reading my own posts, just to make things absolutely clear:
* this is not one for widows & orphans, this is obviously a rather risky situation;
* it is obviously HIGH RISK, not least because the share price has COLLAPSED from 37 pence to just 3 pence over the last 14 months, as the lack of agreed financing has been seen to bite;
* the SXX team have not managed the financing plan well, either in terms of basic mechanics, nor in terms of setting market expectations;
* the market does not like surprises, and the SXX team moved from saying 'all will be well' to the position of 'we need to reassess what we are doing all round' within the space of a few weeks;
* markets will heavily punish quoted companies that fail to deliver, especially when the delivery failure relates to financing & running out of cash;
So the SXX team have been heavily punished for how they have managed (or mis-managed) the mine financing plan and also, to a fair degree, on the fact that their previous plan majored on the transportation system, rather than on the mine site itself.

So it is possible that things will not turn out well here for current SXX shareholders - if, for any reason, it ends up that no Strategic Partner wants to get a major % shareholding in return for stumping up $600 million, then the other debt lenders will take their lead from that decision and question the $NPV Project values that have so far been headlined.
My own interest in posting on this BB is not to encourage others to invest in SXX but, rather, just to counter the obvious attempts to drive the share price into the ground. To be honest, I'd now be delighted to be able to buy SXX shares for 2 pence or 1 pence, but my view is that the 3 pence mark will end up being the low point in this game. But, hey, I MIGHT be wrong, but I have put out a positive view which I hope makes sense & hangs together.

[holidayfunds8] 17/11/2019 14:01

Not My Real Name,

You are saying 2 different things which don't seem to be consistent:

"I am firmly in the camp which says the mine will get built but current shareholders will be diluted to near extinction. These shares are NOT cheap at any price in my opinion."

So questions / comments back at you would be as follows:
1. If the existing SXX shares are not worth ANYTHING, why are you firmly of the view that SOMEBODY ELSE will now take control, and complete the construction of the mine into production?
2. You seem to be suggesting that there is indeed an obvious Project $NPV, based upon expected future cash flows, which readily support the required $bn investment to construct the mine?
3. So why do you feel the maths works for SOMEBODY ELSE, but does not work for the incumbent SXX team?

I would readily agree that the SXX team have made a complete mess of the initial financing plan, in that I think they were SO CONFIDENT on the massive inherent $NPV Project Value, that they were far too bullish that they could finance the remaining capex from bonds / external borrowing ALONE.

The BIG CHANGE since Sept, is that the SXX team have now been forced to accept that they need to share the $NPV Project Value prize out to some degree, by bringing in a major Strategic Partner, and giving them a major % shareholding position. This is a MAJOR CHANGE since Sept, so you know it is unfair to suggest that the SXX team have been talking to Strategic Partners "for many months now" - that is just not true. Instead, the truth is that SXX have now effectively put the offer of a major % shareholding out for competitive auction, and they have confirmed that MULTIPLE Partners (both equity and debt) are now studying the details of the situation, to determine if they now want a seat at the table.

This whole situation really comes down to what you think the $NPV is of the entire mine project - and it is telling that those who think SXX shares are worthless, then go on to confirm that the mine project will be VERY ATTRACTIVE to SOMEBODY ELSE. Those 2 views just don't align. Either it is an attractive mine investment project, or it is not. You can't just mix & match on that.

I am of the view that the SXX team have been very strong on the mechanics & details of the mine construction process, but have not had a balanced view on the financing plan. They are a new mining industry entrant, who has ended up holding the rights to the world's largest known deposit of polyalite, which everybody seems to now agree is of massive inherent value. Bringing in ONE other strategic partner, to provide both new equity funding and lend the WEIGHT of that partner reputation into the overall project mix, will secure those future cash flows with a more balanced split between equity and debt financing.

And, linked to that same point, since the return to shareholders is heavily influenced by how far they can gear the $NPV value through EXTERNAL DEBT, any Strategic Partner that DOES come in now - say, $600 million in return for a 40% stake - we can be sure that Strategic Partner would then work flat out to help secure that the vast bulk of the remaining funding requirement DOES come from external borrowing, as it will then be in their own (share price) interest to see that happen. So getting a Strategic Investor now on board will serve to strengthen the SXX team's hand in MANY DIFFERENT AREAS, not just the provision of the $600 million.

So, I ask again & again to those who think SXX shares are worthless - what do you feel the overall $NPV Project Value stands at today? In my view, you just can't keep dodging that fundamental question. The value estimate HAS to come first, before you can start plugging any positive or negative view on the future direction of the SXX share price.

[skinny] 17/11/2019 11:39

From a couple of days ago :-

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[not my real name] 17/11/2019 11:33

Holidayfunds8,

"the simple reply to this often repeated mantra is that there is now MULTIPLE potential partners in the frame"
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What Sirius ACTUALLY said was...........


"We are in discussions with potential strategic partners and debt investors with the aim of securing the best route to finance our revised initial scope of work and will update the market and our stakeholders on the progress of those when appropriate."

So basically they are talking to people. They have been doing that for many months now and still have not managed to secure ANY Stage 2 financing apart from the 400m they managed to fleece, mainly from existing mugs, (sorry, PIs)with a share offering.

They couldn't get bonds away at 13.5% when interest rates are currently at 0.5%!

This is just another example of kicking the can down the road. I am firmly in the camp which says the mine will get built but current shareholders will be diluted to near extinction. These shares are NOT cheap at any price in my opinion.

That is also a view shared by 6 highly successful hedge funds who specialise in targeting this type of company and currently hold 6.12% of the companies shares.

Most have held since the share price was in excess of 27p and show little sign of closing their positions.

DYOR,

NMRN

[bbmsionlypostafter] 17/11/2019 11:15

Can anyone confirm SXX have recruited Tod Hoffman for the next phase of this exciting story? Success assured if that's the case.

[holidayfunds8] 17/11/2019 10:54

Good to see some new (positive) posters this week. Some great posts (lendmeafiver etc.).

The broad maths behind the Project NPV Values is understood, and it is obvious that you can work with assumptions which reduce the headline NPV well below the 13mtpa output results of $11-13 billion that SXX have again now headlined, and the mine project will still obviously fly.

I think we are all interested in understanding the downside risks, especially in terms of the actual mine construction & operation and in the selling POLY4 in significant tonnage and at good prices. And, on both fronts, I do not detect much real doubt, in that mines like this can be successfully sunk and operated, and the BOULBY mine have effectively now proven that there is real demand for the product and prices still look solid.

BUT I would be interested to see any considered & structured view, which explains why they feel the share price will now tend lower, but that needs to walk through the various key elements, most importantly:
i) what do they think the overall mine project is worth, and why?
ii) in light of that valuation, why they feel that no strategic partner will now want to stump up $600m now, to secure (say) a 15-40% stake in SXX;

But all I am hearing from the bulk of those who are just blatantly talking the SXX share price into the ground are that, either:
A. SXX needs a substantial amount of funding to survive - well, OK, that is indeed true but, hey sherlock, that has been the case from Day 1 - so one can only wonder what the previous 20-40 pence range share price was sustained by over more than a year;
B. Why would any partner stump up $600m now for a % shareholding, when they can just wait for a few more months, wipe the existing share price out to NIL, and take over 100% control of the mine, and then complete the mine themselves and secure the entire Project $NPV cake for themselves - well, the simple reply to this often repeated mantra is that there is now MULTIPLE potential partners in the frame, and unless they can all collude together in some massive conspiracy in order to save themselves the existing market cap of just £240m, then they will be attracted to get involved in this opportunity, so they will compete to secure a good deal for themselves. So the potential partners are now assessing the situation NOW, to secure their seat at the table. It's the sheer scale of the Project $NPV that makes this now a reality.

So, in my view, there is now a classic greed & fear battle now playing out with SXX, and key players in the City of London have their eye on this, because they know that the end game here is not Administration, but a share price in the very near future that is some way above 10 pence per share. And, if you hold that view, you want to now shake the SXX share price tree as hard as you can, and mop up as many SXX shares as you can in the 3-4 pence range, so that you can enjoy a nice Xmas (or New Year) celebration. If there was perfect knowledge in terms of who now holds all of the SXX shares, I think it would reveal a very telling story, but hey ho, whilst small shareholders like us do not have access to the latest & most accurate information, this is a single mine site now being built, with what appears to be a very excellent (and simple) end POLY4 product, so this is a situation where a small investor can do their own sums, and come to a view of what the SXX should now be worth. Don't forget, the current 3-4 pence level reflects the fact that there are still some marginal sellers who are willing to sell SXX shares at this level, but the volumes of late have still been very low in the grand scheme of things, so when the remaining stock of those marginal sellers dries up and / or those with short positions decide the chances of the share price going lower still is unlikely, then my bet is that the worm will turn, and turn quickly.

David

[not my real name] 16/11/2019 21:14

redirect,

In reality they only dropped by 0.11%. Not really life changing but probably accounts for the unexpected buying last week.

NMRN

[kreature] 16/11/2019 17:11

What did you guys think of Froth’s SXX article today over on shareprophets.com ?

[wheeze] 16/11/2019 10:17

Yes, hopefully it will leave those despicable hedgies with their b*lls exposed

[redirect12] 15/11/2019 23:10

Nice to see shorts dropping

[johnwise] 15/11/2019 18:10

FULL RALLY: President Trump in Bossier City, Louisiana
VIDEO

Trump approval ratings soar in major blow for Democrats as poll shows US back President

[skinny] 15/11/2019 16:43

And for a beer!

[y1phr1] 15/11/2019 16:38

Good day for a Friday

[johnwise] 15/11/2019 16:22

3:15 am - 15 Nov 2019

The @siriusminerals agronomist team were at the @ASA_CSSA_SSSA International Meeting 2019 this week. We were delighted to share science & solutions that #POLY4 can offer to help increase yields & crop quality with 4,000 scientists and professionals from across the . #ACSmtg