Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[bherring27] 13/11/2019 09:32

Hi deanroberthunt, I would probably agree but I still think the word "Ramper" is absolutely cringeworthy. I suspect he is a Sirius Employee and bought in about 40p.

[deanroberthunt] 13/11/2019 09:30

John is clearly a paid ramper..and not a very good one...some potatoes please

[bherring27] 13/11/2019 09:30

Hi redirect12, Please do not spread rumors like this, No it is not at all. Have you been past the mine on a night. There is literally nothing happening. It is all in darkness. Both at Woodsmith and Lockwood.

[the millipede] 13/11/2019 09:07

Amaretto - I don't think it is those guys.

[redirect12] 13/11/2019 08:59

Well the work at the site is being ramped up massively and contractors contracts extended

[the brex pistols] 13/11/2019 08:49

We are happily buying your fear this morning. Keep it up.

[amaretto1] 13/11/2019 08:47

Mugs ???? They have shorted down from probably over 30p !!! We are at ??? Mugs ???

[the millipede] 13/11/2019 08:36

Shorts getting stopped out first thing. Mugs.

[johnwise] 13/11/2019 08:28

Sirius Minerals financing plan: Key news on how mine project's future may be secured

The firm hopes big cost savings for its tunnel, underground conveyor and processing plant can boost investor confidence

[bones698] 13/11/2019 08:20

Stinger repeating the same very flawed argument won't help here . At the end of the day sxx is broke and needs a lot of money and the only way they will get it is giving up the conapny to them and shareholders get wiped out . Naive

[johnwise] 13/11/2019 08:19

Sirius Minerals financing plan: Key news on how mine project's future may be secured

The firm hopes big cost savings for its tunnel, underground conveyor and processing plant can boost investor confidence

[johnwise] 13/11/2019 08:02

Hardide PLC Hardide approved for F-35 Joint Strike Fighter

[the stinger] 13/11/2019 07:55

£8 billion NAV. Current MC £250m, interested parties, £1b spent to date, 100 yr lom, 13Mt PA deals signed, UK mining , not SA or some other dodgy mining area....

Who's trying to kid who here..

[kirtonender9] 13/11/2019 07:08

Couldn't have put it better myself.I have been saying this would happen for months. The City don't like private investors making money when they aren't involved. Never have never will.

[dp1umb] 12/11/2019 23:40

Yes Carla my other dog of a share silence Therapeutics has gone from 50p to £4 in double quick time and just think it wasn’t long ago I was going to sell up and invest it all in SXX (I think I dogged a bullet)

[carla1] 12/11/2019 22:39

Dump ... you ok..??

[amaretto1] 12/11/2019 21:39

It's a mess.. still !!

[the stinger] 12/11/2019 21:36

£8 billion NAV. Current MC £250m, interested parties, £1b spent to date, 100 yr lom, 13Mt PA deals signed, UK mining , not SA or some other dodgy mining area....

Who's trying to kid who here..

[holidayfunds8] 12/11/2019 21:15

I think we can all agree that dilution is coming, but the question to now assess is the LIKELY SCALE of that dilution, and this will depend is 2 key factors:

1. The Overall Value that any Strategic Partner calculates the mine project to be worth - Chris Fraser yesterday indicated a figure of £8.6 billion, but I would expect a careful partner to base any deal on a substantially lower figure;

2. A wide acceptance of this ball-parc project value, so that there is a degree of competition between interested parties;

In blunt terms, maybe a partner will now calculate something like £4bn invested now / soon, with maybe £10bn in cash flow to then flow back, i.e. a net project value of £6bn.

Both elements are critical for existing shareholders because, without the 2nd 'multiple, competitive suitors' point, then a single suitor will hold all of the negotiation cards.

But if there are two (or more) suitors, then things will work something like this:

a) If you assumed a £6bn project value, then a partner putting in £470 million would represent around 8% of the project value;

b) But that partners knows that SXX is in desparate need of funding, so they will expect to eventually get a return on that £470m investment of x3 or x4 - so they might expect to take maybe a 33% stake in the company.

c) I obviously can't accurately second guess what project value partners will end up calculating, but they will be cautious & will then aim to screw the best % holding they can;

But if you understand how these things work, if multiple partners feel the mine is worth anything like £6bn (or, less, say £4bn), then it becomes obvious that the post-deal announcement share price will be well north of the current 3-4 pence level.

But whilst I think that positive outcome is now looking VERY LIKELY, those of a negative bent may simply feel that:

i) The overall mine project is not worth anything like £6bn (or £4bn), never mind Chris Fraser;s £8.6bn;

ii) AND / OR they feel that only a SINGLE player will be interested here, and that single player can just wait out the situation, and just take pretty much 100% of the company, leaving existing LTHs with nothing or very little.

Anyway, I don't think it will be too many more week's before we find out if the POSITIVE view plays out, or if the NEGATIVE view is to (again) prevail. But IF the partner deal is secured at, say, 10-15 pence per share, then you can be sure that all of our wise media commentators will then say that it was obvious all along...

[beerboy2] 12/11/2019 19:56

https://www.share-talk.com/sirius-minerals-plc-lonsxx-strategic-review-progress-update/

[the stinger] 12/11/2019 19:42

At these levels and with the recent update....Its quite obvious to now see It's being shorted for a reason ... IMO takeover. The asset is worth £8b !! Minimum... £1b plus spent to date.. 100 yr LOM.... the only obstacle to a major making a 5p ps offer for all is CF's face to all the LTH's here.5p takeover for a big player would cost £400m , they then pile another £400m into the project and hey presto..... they have a minimum £8billion NAV , secure 100yr LOM project....At these levels 'Don't' let the doomsayers cloud your judgement.