Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 20/11/2019 22:57

Very good... somes it all up.

[clotted cream] 20/11/2019 09:31

GK has proven to be over optimist at every event largely because he actually believes in the numbers the company puts out.

Misguided arrogance

[the millipede] 20/11/2019 09:09

I think all sides in this would agree there is no value without a mine. AFAICR Fraser paid £700K ish for the original licenses but I doubt even that value would be retained if finance failed outright.

I was looking through the shares issued over the past 7 years. It is eye watering. In 2012, there were around 1.7bn shares in issue; now around 7bn.

The argument here has always been around the share price vs the likely dilution and this stock does have a history of being ramped to high heaven by multiple BB posters, mainly on iii and lse, who insisted for a long time the entire thing could be financed by debt.

That view has now been shown to be completely wrong but ironically the vastly inflated share price that was the result of this enthusiasm among small investors has helped the company raise money at inflated levels. (Thus reducing the dilution.)

But what they do now is anybody's guess. I am sure there is a finance solution out there, but at the end of the day the result for current holders depends on the number of new shares issued. GK has some decent ideas over on LSE but I think it is just a case of waiting to find out.

[deanroberthunt] 20/11/2019 09:05

So they had no plan for stage 2 financing...maybe the knew it all along..the ceo has pocketed 5m squid along the way so its a success for him

[kennyp52] 20/11/2019 08:40

When you need billions just to be able to start mining it then to me it has negative worth as all there is unless a finance package is forthcoming is risk

[beeezzz] 19/11/2019 21:27

What is the real value of the asset, ie the Poly4 even if still in ground.

Company maybe valued by share price as nothing but it must have some worth..

[the millipede] 19/11/2019 20:11

11 percent - in what way is EML "fully funded?"

[lendmeafiver] 19/11/2019 19:34

That road is like that for literally 1 or 2 mornings a year so I really wouldnt worry about that.

[kreature] 19/11/2019 19:28

So 63 lorries on the Birk Brow 15% (1:7) slope, in winter ? Seriously ?

Birk Brow

[deanroberthunt] 19/11/2019 18:21

history tells ya this is toast

[sm22] 19/11/2019 16:47

Silly Sod...!!!

[lendmeafiver] 19/11/2019 15:10

You are entitled to your opinion and I am mine, best of luck.

[lendmeafiver] 19/11/2019 14:57

Yes Morocco is a little different to North Yorkshire.

[lendmeafiver] 19/11/2019 14:55

I do like the disclaimer at the top the writer has a short position in one or more of the stocks mentioned.

Clearly if the funding is raised then the debt pricing will immediately change, it is just a reflection of the current uncertainty rather than an indicator of the terms of the potential new funding in my personal opinion.

[nofool] 19/11/2019 14:51

Honestly, have you ever been to Morocco??

[bbmsionlypostafter] 19/11/2019 14:36

As I have said many times before, the price of a company's debt is a very good indicator of whether the equity faces wipe out or dilution. The debt of Sirius Minerals (SXX) trades in the mid 30s, which effectively means that should any prospective “partner” in this ridiculously grandiose project be misguided enough to commit $600 million upfront to the project - which is what the company now claims it urgently needs (before the real spending begins) - it is inconceivable to me that the current shareholders would be given a free ride for £240 million, which is the market cap at 3.42p.

[lendmeafiver] 19/11/2019 14:27

Yes it does, don’t forget for £250m SXX market cap you are buying unto a project that they have already spent many times more than that on already, so if you believe they will get funding it’s likely to be quite an amazing entry point in my view even with significant new shares issued. Both interesting projects.

[sportbilly1976] 19/11/2019 14:18

lendme,

thank you for your response...interestingly the NPV differential (x13) marry nicely with the current market capitalisation differential of x10 (£24mln for EML v £250mln for SXX)

thanks again

[lendmeafiver] 19/11/2019 14:11

EML looks interesting and investable but is a completely different Product to SXX with a completely different set of economics eg NPV10 of US$795 million vs NPV of US11bn, I would be happy to hold both.

[sportbilly1976] 19/11/2019 13:23

genuine question for holders here...what is the opinion re comparison of SXX to EML in terms resource, funding, potential returns ?

I appreciate for many to switch would be crystallising significant losses, but to me the likelihood of recouping those lies with EML more than here given the funding hole to be plugged

[spirito] 19/11/2019 12:45

Very little volume