Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[lendmeafiver] 13/11/2019 21:50

Undervalued, yes, as in look at the mine life, the NPV calculations, USD11bn, just look at the build cost to date that you are buying for circa £200m market cap, remarkably undervalued assuming they get a deal over the line. Given the current investors in the project, some big names, there has to surely be a reason chance they will. And surely if it takes a little longer than hoped to fund then perhaps they could do a small rights issue rather than all this talk of bankruptcy on this board, I don’t understand all the talk of comparing this to a retailer like Debenhams.

[kirtonender9] 13/11/2019 21:28

What is the hurry to invest by a 3rd party when if they wait a few months they get more of the company for a lot less?

[the brex pistols] 13/11/2019 20:39

Couldn't agree more lendmeafiver.

[davethehorse] 13/11/2019 20:35

Undervalued??

[lendmeafiver] 13/11/2019 20:06

Good discussion, I think it’s well worth an investment at 3.2p, seems remarkably undervalued, of course feel very sorry for those who bought much higher, hopefully the 11bn NPV comes to fruition and the company can do a good funding deal as this may yet turn into a great investment for all. Best of luck all.

[the walter committee] 13/11/2019 19:37

You're FIRED.

[djb3] 13/11/2019 19:22

I'm not trying to trash it, if you look at previous posts I've just asked questions and constantly hoped that someone comes in. I've also told you I'm not in this in anyway. If ICL or anybody wait for a few more months they get it really cheap minus shareholders. I hope that is not true. PS 'I will learn', Brex pistols - stop embarrassing yourself I'm not in this like you and I really think you're the one that needs to 'learn'.

[the millipede] 13/11/2019 19:18

When Sirius first talked about polyhalite, Boulby first of all dismissed the product as unsellable. Then they started marketing and selling it themselves!

Boulby is a massive company with deep pockets that, as someone kindly pointed out above, according to their latest annual report sees Sirius as a threat to their strategy.

I wonder if they might be interested in some kind of joint venture/ future cost sharing arrangement? Say 50:50. How different would this look if we had a major partner, the £480m in the bank, and only half the $2.5bn to find on what would be a massively derisked project?

We can but dream and other views are available..... :-)

[the brex pistols] 13/11/2019 18:35

OK then djb, we can only guess that you have foolishly paid 20p or more for this stock and can't bear the idea of anyone else making a lot of money from these much lower levels. A classic case of sour grapes sir.

You will learn, but trashing your 95+% loss is not one of the best ways.

[lendmeafiver] 13/11/2019 18:32

I don’t understand where this idea that all shareholders will be wiped out comes from, yes I would expect some dilution but an entry at today’s prices is a remarkably cheap investment at £200m market cap for a business with a NPV of USD11bn to USD13Bn. Incredible numbers.

I think ICL have a window of opportunity currently to do a deal that ensures they remain market leader, I think they should take the current opportunity whilst sirius are in a position of needing funding, if they pass on it now they may look back at this point as the position they sat on their hands at the wrong time.

[djb3] 13/11/2019 18:28

Anyone's free to post on this board if you don't like it filter me. Sounds like by the way you're reacting I've hit a nerve. They are producing the same product, so if you were investing in this company wouldn't you first look at what the neighbours are doing and the reasons for it? Not paid to do anything and certainly not short just having a discussion or so I thought.

[the brex pistols] 13/11/2019 18:22

What do you care, as you have zero interest in the success or otherwise of this stock? Need to get some skin in the game pal, or trash another stock. You are either short or long, or walter mitty... or a paid deramper. Which one is it?

We smell a rat.

[djb3] 13/11/2019 18:00

But Boulby does and already mining same product down the road. They must honestly be licking their lips at what's happening to Sirius.

[coldspring] 13/11/2019 17:53

I am not short here either. I would love the mine to be built and operate at full capacity and I think it probably will one day BUT imho current shareholders will be all but wiped out. Whatever your choice I hope you make money.

[lendmeafiver] 13/11/2019 17:50

Of course it doesn’t have any revenue yet, but the mine 15 miles away does and is already selling the exact same product today and ramping up to 1m tonnes over the next year or so.

Yes it’s also a lot of money to raise, but they have been able to attract substantial investors to date so why will they not now at this more advanced stage with a model showing NPV between USD 11bn and 13bn, it very rare to find a project with potential upside on that scale isn’t it?

Remember the current investment decision is a buy in price at circa £200m so appears to already be weighted for the potential risks doesn’t it?

[kreature] 13/11/2019 17:29

Two massive elephants in room. A 500m elephant, and a 2.5bn elephant. Who would give the 500m without knowing that 2.5bn and future sales are 100% guaranteed in the bank ? What is there to discuss until some miracle happens ?

[djb3] 13/11/2019 17:22

I've never shorted in my life I hate it. So many people on here are living in dreamland. This doesn't even have any current income, no one will touch this at present. I hope they do but it too high risk. They've already said they only had 6 months to stay afloat - where is any future money coming from? Anyway good luck but you will need an awful lot of it.

[the brex pistols] 13/11/2019 17:15

YES, It would!

[lendmeafiver] 13/11/2019 17:10

Look I’ve always been of the view that these boards are great for open debate no matter what the views of people are, positive or negative, so I will never criticise anyone’s view of a stock, you often learn far more from an extreme doubter but it has to be intelligent conversation backed up with facts.

Anyway, the more I look at this following the latest RNS the more compelling it becomes, nothing is without risk of course but at a market cap around £200m for everything they have already built let alone what they have got in the ground it’s in a very interesting position, especially given we are potentially talking about NPV of USD11bn.

I posted a comment this morning about a couple of interesting paragraphs in the ICL 2018 annual report, surely it will one day make sense for them to give in and do a deal with the company if they want to maintain their stated objective of being market leader wouldn’t it?

[the millipede] 13/11/2019 16:57

Lendme,

I think what dj is trying to say is that he has taken out a short and he would very much like you to help him make a success of it by selling down any stock you might own.

HTH, TM

[lendmeafiver] 13/11/2019 16:52

Debenhams is a very poor comparable, this is completely different situation from a retailer with too much debt that needed to restructure its retail units, this is a single construction project business so surely the board could scale back operations accordingly and manage cash flows if they really had to. Again who would force a bankruptcy and why in this case?

[the brex pistols] 13/11/2019 16:48

One or two (or one of the same) gimps on here. No need to read their/his/her irrelevant rubbish. Probably just being paid a pittance to talk down the share. Who in their right mind would own this stock if they were rubbishing it constantly? Answer - no one!

[djb3] 13/11/2019 16:42

It's gonna be another Debenhams imho. Everything that Debenhams had went to Celine on the cheap and even Mike Ashley lost his 30%.