Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[coldspring] 12/11/2019 08:22

Hi mike, Save what you can and exit. Look at all the big sells, smart money is getting out. If the news yesterday was good then this would be at least 15p by now. Think about this when you get wiped out next year.

[johnwise] 12/11/2019 08:20

Naked short selling has been illegal in the US since 2008. Its aim is to buy back the security at a lower price than what it was sold for, and making a gain on the difference. Naked short selling is often illegal because it allows people to manipulate stock prices without taking into account supply and demand.

[walkermike1] 12/11/2019 08:16

Can you go away. You don't know anything

[coldspring] 12/11/2019 08:14

Taken up first thing for extra mug participation and now red again. Predictable

[y1phr1] 12/11/2019 08:08

We have turned the corner, nice roses to come hopefully

[10p here we come] 12/11/2019 08:06

All aboard?

[johnwise] 12/11/2019 07:56

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[johnwise] 12/11/2019 07:54

British steel has been left weak by cheap Chinese competition

About half of the 1.6bn tonnes of steel made globally comes from China. Firms operating in the UK just cannot compete

The Chinese are right to see potential in the British steel industry, which contrary to popular myth is not bombed out.

The Government will hand over the keys and that will be a truly grotesque betrayal.

[carla1] 12/11/2019 07:54

Goose.. the worm has turned!!

[coldspring] 12/11/2019 07:48

John wears grey sweat pants, pass it on

[johnwise] 12/11/2019 07:40

Boss Chris Fraser said yesterday: 'We are in discussions with potential strategic partners and debt investors with the aim of securing the best route to finance our revised initial scope of work and will update the market and our stakeholders on the progress of those when appropriate.'

Fraser added that management was in talks with a number of different types of strategic investor.

Analysts have speculated that Sirius could bring a major mining company on board, a sovereign wealth fund – it already has backing from Qatari and Norwegian funds

[johnwise] 12/11/2019 07:39

Boss Chris Fraser said yesterday: 'We are in discussions with potential strategic partners and debt investors with the aim of securing the best route to finance our revised initial scope of work and will update the market and our stakeholders on the progress of those when appropriate.'

Fraser added that management was in talks with a number of different types of strategic investor.

Analysts have speculated that Sirius could bring a major mining company on board, a sovereign wealth fund – it already has backing from Qatari and Norwegian funds

[amaretto1] 12/11/2019 07:39

Only thing John, he's being saying this for over a year. :-(

[pazzuzu] 12/11/2019 07:38

They were also confident on st2 bond sale. One senior manager at the agm was informal telling peeps it's all but done, soooooo who knows. But positive outlook moreso now. Just waiting for the dilution.

[kennyp52] 12/11/2019 07:38

I trust you as much as the CEO Johnnotsowise

[johnwise] 12/11/2019 07:23

How likely is it that Sirius Minerals will secure the funding?

Bosses are 'confident' they can pull it off; they are talking to multiple parties.
By spreading the funding, it is reducing risk for investors.

Some investors previously did not like the fact they were being asked to fund the project all in one go.

[kreature] 12/11/2019 00:28

clutching at straws time I suppose. Have the 'collective' local authorities in the area got any cash to chip in ?

[the millipede] 11/11/2019 23:13

Holiday, I think you are along the right lines.

CF has said that they could have previously raised the $500m debt with warrants attached.

The warrants, of course, were not allowed by JPM's restrictions, and these restrictions no longer apply.

So maybe some sort of loan that converts to equity at some point is one way this could go.

[bspgamer] 11/11/2019 23:02

Today's RNS was to move the clever money out. No chance in the world they will raise that money without wiping share holders out

[holidayfunds8] 11/11/2019 22:59

So STEP 1 - what do we think the overall mine project is worth? To ANYBODY.

You can say NIL, or something more than NIL, but you have to give an answer.

Once we get past STEP 1, we can then narrow down upon that scenario, and fill in the rest of the blanks. Simples...this aint rocket surgery.

[holidayfunds8] 11/11/2019 22:55

11%, tell me your best estimates of what a partner deal will look like please.

You can put the mine value as low as you like, and the partner % control as high as you like, but the number of shares issued x the price = £470 million

Or you can just say you don't think any strategic partner will find the deal attractive enough, and you feel SXX will just go bust / run out of cash.

I am sure you know, but things will work as per the structure below, so it's just a question of filling in the key variables:

Overall Mine value (£ millions) 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
NEW shares issued (millions) 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
NEW TOTAL no of shares (mill) 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
New Partner % share ownership 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

NPV per share (in pence) 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Additional Funding raised (£m) 470 470 470 470 470 470

Partner pays for EACH NEW SHARE 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7

Where do you think I am going wrong here? If I did have $600 million to invest, I think I'd be mighty interested to get a decent % of the SXX shares - but I am guessing you would not, right?

[11_percent] 11/11/2019 22:38

beeezzz,

Have a look at the graph....the shorts are increasing......although Highbridge are reducing and are about in line with everyone else.

[amaretto1] 11/11/2019 21:29

It will drift back down .. shorters will again gain the helm.

[holidayfunds8] 11/11/2019 21:23

Quite amusing today to see those of a negative bent so obviously worried / panicked, with little in the way of any reasoned analysis beyond "We're DOOMED, DOOMED I tell 'ya!".

Today's RNS clearly does not give us any confirmation of any sealed deal, but it has now confirmed on 2 fronts:
- there are MULTIPLE strategic partners now in play here; MULTIPLE, that's MULTIPLE;
- CF & team are looking for only a partner share issue of only circa $600 million, which is far more optimistic than I was expecting; I was expecting AT LEAST a 50% partner stake, but they seem to still think that modest dilution could still fly;

As I stressed in my previous mails, the key, central point to focus upon is what the overall mine venture is WORTH. Chris Fraser is now saying $11 billion, which translates to something like £8.6 billion in net value (note, beware those who now deliberately quote the Initial and Deferred capex in £s, rather than US$ - it's a minor, but telling, detail to fool people]

Anyway, let's say we don't believe that the net value is as high as £8.6 billion - all players here can come to their own view of what the whole venture is worth.

BUT the inherent value here is clearly AN AWFUL LOT, and the real moment of truth will be the RNS that confirms the agreed deal with a strategic partner, and how many shares they will get and, most importantly, the PRICE they will pay for those shares.

Yes, those now worried will point out that there is a risk that no investor (strategic or finance) will actually commit to putting in the $600 million and that SXX will go bust when that $600 million deal evaporates. That is always possible I guess, but I'd say walking away from such an attractive investment opportunity looks really unlikely to my eye.

But I am more confident today than I was yesterday that ONE of the strategic partners now checking all of the details, will end up wanting to get involved here, with a resulting dilution that is modest compared to what I was expecting yesterday.

My bet is that we will now see another RNS to confirm the $600 million deal this side of Xmas, and that will then give us 2 things:
- we will then know what PRICE PER SHARE the new partner has been willing to pay;
- and we will know the NAME of that new partner, and the weight that name will bring into the $2.6 bn Deferred Financing negotiations;

So it's the next $600 m partner RNS that will be the immediate game changer here, and if you listened to the webcast carefully, Chris Fraser made it very clear that he understands that making that announcement sooner, rather than later, is now a big priority for him. SO, better to get a SOLID / GOOD deal confirmed within the next 6 weeks, than wait until Q1 next year to announce a GREAT or PERFECT deal.

Not least because I am unsure my heart could cope with a delay beyond Xmas...

David