Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[johnwise] 24/5/2018 20:06

Why Sirius Minerals’ share price could continue rising significantly

Over the past three months, the share price of Sirius Minerals (LSE: SXX) has risen over 25% in value. I believe the prospective fertiliser miner’s share price could continue to rocket in the coming months thanks to several potential positive catalysts in the works.

A catalyst looming on the horizon is the group’s long-awaited debt financing agreements that it needs to sign to provide funding for the construction of its North Yorkshire mine. While there has been little news on how discussions with lenders are progressing, we have heard recently that Sirius is seeking up to $2bn in government-backed funding out of the roughly $3bn it needs.

If Sirius management can use the current political environment, where politicians are desperate to invest in the economy post-Brexit and shift funding to northern regions, to strike a favourable deal, investors would surely react warmly.

This would also be true if we continued to see Sirius sign offtake agreements with future customers such as Singaporean agriculture giant Wilmar, among others. The recent string of deals has been important not only for the potential financial payoff they will bring, but also as a sign that customers do view the company’s polyhalite as a potentially useful fertiliser.

Likewise, further good news on the operational front would show the management team is up to the monumental task of not only constructing its huge mine, but doing so roughly on time and on budget.

[ppvn] 24/5/2018 18:12

Hi Spirito. Your post has summed it up for me very succinctly, and from hearing from quite a few people I think sums up the bulk feeling of the silent majority of Sirius PIs. The most recent HL filing had private individuals buying a further 30mm shares. Investing is all about guessing what the bulk of holders will do, or rather, the bulk of trading individuals. Since stage 1, our CB holders have dictated the shareprice because they are the ones with the supply of shares. When they are out, what will PIs with these shares in their portfolio do? Will most sell, or will most continue to hold until dividends are paid? I personally believe most will hold - meaning if institutions want to buy in, the price could reasonably be assumed to be materially higher than today.

[spirito] 24/5/2018 17:28

Hi PPVNtempting to trade this but dangerous and got it wrong a few times. we are now only 3 hears from first production and that will fly by. I think they will get debt funding but even if it's dilution, the upside long term is still worth it imho.

[ppvn] 24/5/2018 14:55

Hi Spirito, I can’t really comment on the patience side as when I came aboard about 18 months ago I had a long timeframe in mind for my investment. That’s partially why it’s been interesting for me to have discussions about the shareprice gyrations (i.e. the drivers behind the price moves, making forecasts both financial and otherwise, etc etc), as well as the additional reading I’ve been doing about Sirius’ product, mine construction techniques, etc etc. Those things were weaker points to my knowledge so it’s been interesting to learn more.

It is interesting you mention patience because I personally think that Sirius is going to get increasingly interesting in terms of valuation over the next couple of years. At the moment, institutions (depending on your definition) hold around 20% of Sirius’ shares. According to the ONS in 2014 (most recent data available) by value, 53.7% of UK shares by value are owned by “Rest of World” investors (I’d chalk this up as institutions), 9.1% “Unit Trusts”, 7.1% “Other Financial Institutions”, 5.9% “Insurance Companies” etc etc – it goes on. But my point is that Sirius currently have a very high proportion of Individual investors when compared to the 2014 ONS figures of 12.4% for UK companies as a whole. So this implies to me at least (as well as Staley’s’; stated objectives for the year) that at some point, between here and production, that individuals are going to sell a lot of shares to institutions. Some I’m sure will sell at excellent moments and the shareprice will never go higher (well I’m not sure about that really), but many should, if Sirius execute their currently stated plans (namely Stg2 finance as 100% debt, I’m assuming that to mean non or minimally dilutive), sell at a level that they perceive to be an excellent time but then go on to experience sellers remorse. I’m not endorsing buy and simply hold, but that’s my strategy here as I’ve stated many times.

It’s no secret that at this time our CB holders are selling shares. They have to, because their upside is limited. I believe this shareprice is cheap at this time because we are still paying off financing that was agreed a couple of years ago. The mine has moved on from that point, and at some time, the shareprice will too - CB holders will run out of shares to sell.

[johnwise] 24/5/2018 07:41

2,500 Sirius Minerals jobs coming to Teesside

Company behind £3.4bn mine and Teesside plant to hold first jobs fair giving details of wave of construction jobs and how you can apply for them






Sirius Minerals has completed the purchase of the Bran Sands site on Teesside

[johnwise] 24/5/2018 05:44

2,500 Sirius Minerals jobs coming to Teesside

Company behind £3.4bn mine and Teesside plant to hold first jobs fair giving details of wave of construction jobs and how you can apply for them





Sirius Minerals has completed the purchase of the Bran Sands site on Teesside

[spirito] 23/5/2018 23:58

I try to be patient and have been in Sirius for over 4years, but still impatient despite my belief in this company

[ppvn] 23/5/2018 23:04

Indeed we are. Does a nice job of sorting the wheat from the chaff! Haven't spotted anything unusual or interesting fwiw

[eurofox] 23/5/2018 21:43

we're at the "paint drying" stage of things - nice steady progress that must be driving day traders round the bend.

[cflather2000] 22/5/2018 20:49

'The Yorkshire'

[hazl] 22/5/2018 11:19

Don't know if already posted .

[11_percent] 22/5/2018 08:32

That is interesting.......the port facilities are only for the initial 10mt/y........then an expansion.

[johnwise] 22/5/2018 07:58

For those who missed this the first time round

BMO Farm to Market Conference, New York 2018

[y1phr1] 21/5/2018 21:05

John STUPID bans everyone he is not the ticket.

[spirito] 21/5/2018 15:45

what does that. translate into for the sp?

[lenses] 21/5/2018 15:39

PN

'Berth 1' - capacity 10mt/y - is all that is presently proposed (and being tendered) at BS. A second identical berth, 'Birth 2' is proposed adjacent up river for the expansion case to 20mt/y, if the expansion case materialises.

All dependent on sales vol and prices achieved I would imagine. Time will tell on that one. Regardless the 10mt/y base case appears to offer EBITDA around $1bn/y......not something I'll be getting sniffy at!!!

L.

[mr.oz] 21/5/2018 15:20

nice one GK

[pugwash north] 21/5/2018 15:04

cp;
Can you explain what steel bulk handling facilities you would require would be useful to have for shipping a small pellet product, also they have laid idle for 4 yours without any maintenance? Is the intention to ship loose or in bags?
It is also interesting to learn allegedly the firm of consultants releasing the tender documents for the loading equipment are asking for 10mts tons capability, not the 20mts bounded about. This 10mts I believe was mentioned in the recent CF presentation. I know a long way off but a reduced delivery out in the first instance must reduce initial revenue?

[lenses] 21/5/2018 14:56

This potential leasing proposal picked up by the Times has been about for a while now. It appeared in a presentation from March:

hxxp://www.iom3.org/sites/default/files/news-documents/Sirius%20Minerals%20ICE%20Presentation_20-3-18.pdf

Compare the map on p32 to the 2016 one on p16 here:

hxxp://siriusminerals.com/downloads/project-summary-document/

showing the Sirius ownership boundary for Bran Sands.

The present planned main storage site for finished product is at Wilton, with far smaller scale buffering storage envisaged at BS near the proposed ship loaders. If they instead have large volume main storage sited near to the ship loaders, then I would think loading rates could be significantly improved. The present area owned by Sirius at BS, with its included out of bounds SSSI lake, looks a bit small to support a main storage shed there.

I would think it would be a long term choice. Leasing would also avoid any liability with any potential land clean up costs.

L.

[hazl] 21/5/2018 14:21

well it was the Times article, I said 'good find' for, so I am left confused.