Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[not my real name] 11/5/2018 09:34

Johnmoron,

Living up to your name then John. Re Analcime. Why try to wind up someone who has you on filter?

NMRN

[johnwise] 11/5/2018 09:23

Liberum reckons the stock is worth 60p, which would value the business at almost £2.7bn, while Shore Capital sits at the top of the range at 65p, or 82.5p once the second round of funding is complete.

[johnwise] 11/5/2018 09:15

Analcime, What a pity you sold

The financials look good. Woodsmith is expected to be generating a gross profit of around US$1.2bn a year by 2024, producing 10mln tonnes of POLY4 (output eventually rises to 20mln tonnes), lock in a price of US$158 a tonne.

[analcime] 11/5/2018 09:11

I have had these guys filtered for years.

Johnwise
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[coldspring] 11/5/2018 09:00

Excellent news for everyone, please don't darken our B.B. again. We don't need rampers, derampers or day traders. Filtered in any event.

[johnwise] 11/5/2018 08:53

"And since the stock trades at less than 15% of its NPV, there seems to be scope for a higher valuation".

[johnwise] 11/5/2018 08:39

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[11_percent] 11/5/2018 08:25

offer - 34.9

[11_percent] 11/5/2018 08:23

Had the rise....had the small pull back----to settle......now go for 35......

The "O" trade are buys....

[11_percent] 11/5/2018 08:05

Here we go guys.........am looking for 35.......

[johnwise] 11/5/2018 08:03

Sirius Sales agreements

Since it began marketing POLY4, Sirius Minerals has signed major offtake agreements with leading commercial organisations in South East Asia, North America, Central America and China..

At an average assumed price on the world market of $198/tonne for the new POLY4 product, that represents a gross annual turnover of nearly $1 billion, rising to $2.6 billion of 13 million tonne .The output target has been increased to 20 million tonne a year.

[ppvn] 10/5/2018 21:30

Hey Mr Oz, looks like some gap between the acceptance of the invitation to convert and the reporting of the shorts. Did some sums prior to the event and thought it would get down to about 2% - 2.5% so still better than that. It can't have been any further conversions since Sirius don't have any shares left to issue from the 300mm blocklisting made last year and they haven't filed a new one yet. (And after some further subsequent thinking, the 2-2.5% figure was excluding the 106mm from mid-March so there should actually be quite a few shorts just under the 0.5% reportable number)

Thing to remember is really that out of 2k bonds, either 778 or 779 have already been converted. 300 bonds will be converted in the cleanup call, Outstanding shorts are then also taken off this number, because assuming the share price doesn't drop down below the strike price these will be returned to lenders by converted bonds. So counterintuitively, the higher our shorts, the sooner we are to being rid of our CB holders. So the drop from 4.69% to 3.62% has set us back by about 50mm shares. Which is annoying but not the end of the world. (It is also possible a holder just dipped below the 0.5% margin so that number could realistically be less)

I also was rereading the prospectus yesterday as I wanted to clarify if Sirius are able to call only on 19th Dec 2018 if greater than $350k, but they can call the bonds anytime prior to that date assuming the underlying shares are greater than $350k for 20 days out of 30. I thought the CB holders might risk going over that price to gamble on being able to sell all their shares by december but they can't. We've still got a bit of upward price to go - at current FX would be 39.87p ($350k divide by 1.35 (gbpusd) divide by 650,195). They can go over for less than 20 out of 30 days, or if they get close to selling all their shares gamble on converting (I.e. without being fully hedged). So really I don't know what they will decide though!

[mr.oz] 10/5/2018 20:43

CHL, yes large drop. Let's ask the gruesome twosome their interpretation of such.

[coolhandfluke] 10/5/2018 18:29

Tracked shorts dropped to 3.62 pct. if I am reading it correctly.

[coolhandfluke] 10/5/2018 13:17

Hi NMRN Don't worry who's first you both have good information with a different slant that is always interesting.Cheer.CHF

[johnwise] 10/5/2018 11:56

Sirius said that a tunnelling contract had been signed with STRABAG for drive 1 of the Mineral Transport System, from Wilton to Lockwood Beck

Afcons, in a joint venture with Strabag AG, is constructing the world's longest motorable tunnel 3,000 m above sea level.
Video



Sirius has also signed the shaft sinking contact with DMC -

DMC Mining Services Celebrating 35 Years
Video

[not my real name] 10/5/2018 11:27

Morning PPVN,

I would too but more importantly.............I just hope whoever did the maths is not involved on the engineering side of the project. The MTS tunnel could come out in Calais!

NMRN

[ppvn] 10/5/2018 11:22

Haha! Sorry NMRN.

Anyone checked with Sirius as to whether 1,221 remain or 1,222? Only a small difference but I'd personally expect an error in an RNS to need correcting...

[spirito] 10/5/2018 11:22

chris - back in from 29.75

[not my real name] 10/5/2018 11:16

HI chf,

Och Ziff just added 0.1% to their existing shorts. That equates to just over 4.6m shares or around 7 Convertible Bonds.

That's good, as it's heading in the right direction, but a drop in the ocean by comparison to outstanding bonds.

Edit: You did it again PPVN! :)

NMRN

[ppvn] 10/5/2018 11:14

CHF, in my view is good since it just shows more shares are being disposed of by our CB holders. Should increase up to about 6-7% in the next few days and weeks, then I'd personally expect either another blocklisting RNS or an RNS detailing conversions. The recent invitation to convert has exhausted the 300mm blocklist announced last year so they'll need to do another one as soon as further CBs are submitted for conversion.

[coolhandfluke] 10/5/2018 11:09

Shorts up 4.79pct. Is that good or bad.

[christopher logsdon] 10/5/2018 11:07

Spirito I can't remember whether you said you are in or out but let's not be uncharitable you know we're talking long-term so pounds not pennies is very realistic