Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[gazza] 27/3/2019 10:30

TF,

Asterias were bought out by BIOTime inc a while ago but presumably after the deal with CRUK was struck. There was a bit of controversy over this. They are slightly ahead of Scancell on the timeline. Asterias were valued at $52M before the takeover, the shareholders were give shares in BioTime rather than cash.

[gazza] 27/3/2019 10:01

and of course, there has been no indication to date that anyone would pay 69p!

I have made this point before - Prof Durrant's goal is to cure cancer. Making money for herself is not as important but obviously she will need money (a lot of it) to achieve the primary goal. This is why I think she would back a buy out (at any price) if she was promised enough funding to achieve her goal. IMO

[panama7] 27/3/2019 09:35

I would accept 69p tomorrow but the BOD would have some very serious questions to answer.

[gazza] 27/3/2019 09:19

I'd settle for 69p next week so would many other investors I suspect. However, I'm sure the bod would hold out for more. I can't see anyone paying more than £1.50 in its present state.

[panama7] 27/3/2019 09:16

Gazza, " 69p for a buyout " but Goodfellow could have sold years ago for many multiples of 34p and since then we have had several Pivotal years, surely you mean £6.90

[inanaco] 27/3/2019 08:27

Tf

SCIB2 is for Lung cancer, they use the word solid because of tumor mass

wait the update, hopefully scancell might RNS but they don't have to

[torquayfan] 27/3/2019 01:38

Inan.

When you have time can you please look at Gooosed 21211.

Inside that link - 'Asterias' for indication 'lung'.

Can you comment on that and any others relevant in the CRUK report to give some perspective ?

Thanks.

[panama7] 26/3/2019 22:20

DE believes the II's will insist on a sale in the next couple of years. Just his thoughts not based on anything other than his own view.

[gazza] 26/3/2019 20:41

Panama, Not at all. But a big pharma will only pay what it is intrinsically worth. So if you can work out a fair value, this is what a pharma might pay. The difference with a buy out would be you get a return sooner. So I could get 69p next week rather than waiting until 2025.

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 20:06

Panama7 ..

really the Key event coming up first is the collaboration agreement with BioNtech
if that turns commercial it in effect lays out the value of the whole Moditope program
because the science behind the TCR is exactly the same as moditopes vaccine program the creation of Cd4 Killer T cells ..

now as i have explained the nature of the beast is not to contain cancer but to destroy it ...

and you have the added benefit of Three Bites at the cherry

1/ Modi1
2/ Modi1 add modi2 combination
3/ TCR

all three have Value based on "CR" level ... complete response

I can only work with the UK NICE because that is the only system we can look at that values accurately "CR"

higher the CR ... the more value is attached

which is why its very difficult to price in that efficacy until you have the actual data

[bermudashorts] 26/3/2019 19:56

Panama,

No, they just don't have the funds or the infrastructure to take a product into phase III, let alone through to marketing approval. As I understand it, the strategy is to license or sell each product when they have sufficient data to secure a deal and that's the investment case here.

[panama7] 26/3/2019 19:35

Gazza, Bermuda, Inanaco, will all this talk of future valuations are you totally discounting any Big Pharma approaches ?

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 18:56

Gazza

well good luck with that

[gazza] 26/3/2019 18:04

Inan, "So you are now basing the entire portfolio within scancell only on SCIB1 gazza ?"I'm forecasting the potential value in 2025. If you can hold until 2030 there may be other products to value.

[bermudashorts] 26/3/2019 16:55

Excellent spot Scrumpy and thanks for sharing goosed. Great news for Ichor and promising for any small bios operating in this space?

[gooosed] 26/3/2019 16:50

Courtesy of Scrumpy :

[bermudashorts] 26/3/2019 16:32

That's great news, thanks for sharing gooosed

[gooosed] 26/3/2019 16:30

Fwiw - CRUK have confirmed it is in the process of updating the CDD portfolio on the cdd website and will be done in the next couple of weeks :



SCIB2 will be the largest clinical trial Scancell have been involved in to date.

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 16:26

so you are now basing the entire portfolio within scancell only on SCIB1 gazza ?

SCIB1 is the backstop ...

it's not the end stop

[gazza] 26/3/2019 16:21

Bermuda,

Yes I understand all about NPV.

I am trying to understand what my Scancell investment will be worth in 2025 assuming successful SCIB1 trials and launch. I make it 69p , not as much as I hoped when I first dipped my toe in here but a decent return. Possibly not enough to justify the risk but I'm here now.

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 16:17

all i had to do was move the 20% success rate UPWARDS

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 16:16

On a serious note ...

That is exactly why i posted this

inanaco26 Mar '19 - 15:17 - 21196 of 21206 Edit
0 0 0
bermuda the reason why i only looked at SCIB1 .. is because it alone covers the Share Price

Using a success
probability of 20%, the rNPV of this programme is £18.5m, equivalent to 4.8p a
share.

In finance, rNPV ("risk-adjusted net present value") or eNPV ("expected NPV") is a method to value risky future cash flows.

which is why i was proving the science data with all comparables

[bermudashorts] 26/3/2019 16:13

..........lol if it were 100% then I think Scancell might have had an offer or two from big pharma by now.

On a serious note, I understand that you're trying to reach a value assuming all trials are successful and SCIB1 is approved as a combination therapy by the FDA and EMA. We're back to the question of what stage you're trying to reach a valuation for - the Trinity Delta valuation is a value now, for the products as they stand, hence discounts.

[gazza] 26/3/2019 16:10

Inan,
>the "model" used excludes efficacy yet. its efficacy that dictates the value<<br />
No it doesn't exclude it. The efficacy will influence the market share which IS included in the model.

What you can't get your head around is the fact that revenue is driven by the need for treatment and products that meet those needs. The market potential doesn't increase just because the science is "clever". People will buy them because they work, no more than that.

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 16:09

I hope we are discussing the same thing bermuda ???

""" trinity model generated a sales figure"""

so i have no idea what this industry average stuff is about ? it not relevant

.. Trinity Data does not have the efficacy data to do that

which is why Novartis drug values Highly because of the "CR" rate

v PD-1 which has a far lower "CR" rate costing a 1/4 of the price