Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[gazza] 22/3/2019 17:41

Inan,

Could you please respond specifically to this request:

Inan,

You said
""let's take an untreatable cancer""

I said, OK which one?

So which untreatable cancer do you want to take so we can look at its market potential? I'm sure I will be able to find a correlation between number of cases and spend, differentiating between those with treatment and those currently without. We can then superimpose the with pattern onto the without group.

[ivyspivey] 22/3/2019 17:40

Gazza,Absolutely and yes so many posts to try and read and digest.
However the first deal is the most important to most market investors/ traders as it validates the science and of course the amount of the payment.
For the vast majority of people on AIM you can tell them the science is fantastic and potential enormous and they will truly respond to excellent trial results if they understand the significance which is not always clear( hence I am always sure you can probably buy in here on significant trial news)but certainly they will respond to a deal.
So with a market cap of £25m or whatever and a deal is announced for £20m the traders etc will pile in without understanding whether it us a good deal or not,

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:26

so you cannot use, lets say the existing expenditure of stage 1 patients in your calculations because it's already been spent

[gazza] 22/3/2019 17:25

Ivy, very true but....

The deals don't change what the potential worth of the drugs are. The deals will bring the share price closer to the potential value. I did make this point earlier but there have been so many today it wouldn't be difficult to miss.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:24

so for instance

Moditope cannot become "standard of care" at stage 1 cancer

so it has NO market in that area

SCIB1 and immunobody can .....

[ivyspivey] 22/3/2019 17:22

Trying to tap into what seem some informative posts but of course the deals are relevant.They are the most important bit in that they totally validate the science and are proof of concept of commercialising that science.
It is the deaks that bomb proof the market cap as they are what the market fully understands and avoids the need to raise funds

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:22

gazza

TNBC ... patients die from it ...

Don't you get it ?

if you save them you have "Created a new market"

[ivyspivey] 22/3/2019 17:22

Trying to tap into what seem some informative posts but of course the deals are relevant.They are the most important bit in that they totally validate the science and are proof of concept of commercialising that science.
It is the deaks that bomb proof the market cap as they are what the market fully understands and avoids the need to raise funds

[gazza] 22/3/2019 17:08

Inan,

You said
""let's take an untreatable cancer""

I said, OK which one?
So which one do you want to take and we can crunch the numbers?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:04

Gazza

The issue is you are looking at "what is being spent"

rather than looking at what scancells is doing which is "creating a new market"

so to do that you have to look at what is actually being spent on the whole market

and its subsequent cost attributed and its potential to increase with the wealth of nations

basically you are not looking at the way capitalism works .. because your estimating based on existing markets not the value created new ones

so could you have predicted the size of the internet in 1985 ? No ..

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:57

Inan,
""let's take an untreatable cancer
in effect it has no market
no product exists
so how can you gauge the market size against current expenditure ?""

OK, which one (untreatable cancer) do you want to take?

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:37

Inan,

"but the cost to society as a whole – including costs for loss of productivity – is £18.3 billion.8 May 2015"

Unfortunately, these consequential costs are unlikely to make there way into the Scancell revenue stream and therefore influence the share price. Thanks for playing though.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:35

Bermuda,
Many thanks for that. It looks like head and neck is about the same as Sarcoma value wise, not big numbers. There are big discrepancies in the estimates which I assume is down to HPV/non HPV. I have taken the smaller figure.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:29

gazza


Currently NHS market size

Every year, over 250,000 people in England are diagnosed with cancer, and around 130,000 die as a result of the disease. Annual NHS costs for cancer services are £5 billion, but the cost to society as a whole – including costs for loss of productivity – is £18.3 billion.8 May 2015

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 16:28

Gazza,

According to the last 2 RNS announcements Sarcoma has been replaced by head and neck cancer - buried in the text. If you want to look at that be careful as I assume it doesn't include HPV head and neck cancer.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:24

Bermuda,

I was looking at the Proactive presentation 2018. What document are you looking at where Sarcoma has disappeared?

I suppose they thought it wasn't worth it for 6p

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:18

Bermuda,

The market valuations are around 2022-2025. The valuations will only be achieved when the trials have completed successfully. That's got to be 5 years away?
This is the point when we be valued on earnings. Hopefully, between now and then, the gap between the current share price and potential value will close somewhat.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:16

explain markets

Gazza

let's take an untreatable cancer

in effect it has no market

no product exists

so how can you gauge the market size against current expenditure ?

well you can but you have to refer back to NICE valuations which is why i pointed to Nice on the LSE

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:14

""forget Modi1 .. its way to complex""

No it's not. It's the same as any other drug. The TNBC market has a value so we just need to know what that is and what % Scancell are likely to get.

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 16:13

Gazza,

Sarcoma appears to have disappeared as a target for Modi1

You need to specify at what stage you're trying to predict value, what date?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:12

would you agree with that Bermuda

Cr rate of PD-1 .. ?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:10

forget Modi1 .. its way to complex

because as i have explained its the "Complete response rate"

which means if it works it will be sensational..

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:08

Inanaco,

Thank you.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:08

So, in the spirit of "cracking on" ….

Apologies all, I missed Sarcoma off the MODI1 targets. This has an annual projected market of $1.2B so adds 6p to the share price taking us up to £1.93
I think we are in the realms of "diminishing returns" now.

But I'd be happy with £2 right now!

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:07

Gazza

yes i have many posts on the lse which you can refer back to

but really this needs to be you

i will not be critical .. i will give you suggestions only to improve accuracy if i can