Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 15:19

so just take that bit

probability of 20%

which trial has failed

scib1

or

keytruda

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 15:17

bermuda the reason why i only looked at SCIB1 .. is because it alone covers the Share Price

Using a success
probability of 20%, the rNPV of this programme is £18.5m, equivalent to 4.8p a
share.

In finance, rNPV ("risk-adjusted net present value") or eNPV ("expected NPV") is a method to value risky future cash flows.

which is why i was proving the science data with all comparables

[gazza] 26/3/2019 15:16

Bermuda,

Thanks. A percentage of a percentage is still a percentage! I'll go with Trinity'2 2.3%

So 2.3% market, 17.5% royalty, 60% GP, PE of 20, 100% dilution = 69p per share.

If we get there by 2025 it will still be a lot better than 5% a year!

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 15:14

on the science yes .. but the rest ?

what is the point of the trinity report if Scancell wrote it ?

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 15:07

Bermuda ..

Its says "we" have modelled not Scancell and Trinity have modelled


Looking at the ImmunoBody programmes, SCIB1 is most advanced with the Phase
I/II study in metastatic melanoma expected to start in H119. Assuming smooth
progress, this could be commercially available by 2024 and we have modelled
based on peak sales of £250m and a royalty rate of 17.5%. Using a success
probability of 20%, the rNPV of this programme is £18.5m, equivalent to 4.8p a
share.

[gazza] 26/3/2019 14:59

We shouldn't get too hung up on PE. When a company is not earning much, but is expected to, a PE of 100 is not uncommon. But this is just a ratio of earnings. As soon as the earnings materialise, the PE will suddenly drop significantly. So you estimate high earnings/low PE or low earnings/high PE. I have tried to value Scancell based on a steady revenue stream and low growth. The market average for companies in this position is 15-20. I am prepared to go with 20.

[bermudashorts] 26/3/2019 14:56

Gazza,

1) SCIB1 is restricted to HLA-A2 positive patients which represent about 45% of the total population.

2) I assume that your figure of $14 billion covers the whole market for all stages of melanoma, from neo-adjuvant, adjuvant through to late stage treatments. SCIB1 will be restricted to inoperable late stage III/IV melanoma where PD-1 is the first line treatment rather that a targeted therapy. So your market penetration won't be a percentage of the $14 billion but a percentage of the market which falls under SCIB1's labelling.

3) Trinity Delta have come up with projected sales after talking with Scancell and they obviously have access to far more market data than us. They state that their figures are cautious but I think they're the best you're going to get at this point in time.

[gazza] 26/3/2019 14:53

Bermuda,

I calculated it from the trinity forecast as a % of $14B.

I just wondered why they think the market share is so low. Is SCIB1 only suitable for a small % of melanoma patients?

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 14:39

Novartis last week clinched an agreement with England’s state-funded health service to make the cancer therapy available to children in the first arrangement of its kind in Europe. Young patients could begin receiving Kymriah, which has a list price of about 282,000 pounds ($366,000), within weeks, the National Health Service said at the time.

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 14:32

gazza

"" I suggested we meet halfway - 60% ""

i am not buying a used car off you !!!

the point i was making that movement from 20% to 60% is colossal

it moves the share price by a factor of three on your prediction

the fact that you don't understand the basics is why i will not bother with this thread

what is the point ?

but again you are attacking me for your own failure


"""It strikes me as rather strange that someone who has gone into the minutiae of the science to the point of fanaticism in order to "de-risk" hasn't given any thought to what their investment might be worth IF it is successful.""""


yet it's me that is talking about £8 plus a share

and your own calculation .. even based on a PE of 10 agreed with that

once you accepted what Moljen and myself pointed out

but how you get to £8 is just utter garbage

take Modi1 ...

scancell has now admitted it will work in 5 indications

or have you not understood that ???

they may change the final 3 to take forward but that means the other 2 are still on the radar

its your complete lack of detail and understanding .. that is the issue

I just told you trying to calculate end values is extremely difficult even Bermuda agreed with that by not just using the Nice algo.

and i have pointed out that the "CR" rate with Modi1 could be worth Billions a share price even i could not imagine !!

because of Kymriah

which is priced by "CR"

[bermudashorts] 26/3/2019 14:15

Gazza,

Where did you read 2.3% or have you calculated that yourself based on Trinity Delta's predicted sales against your $14 billion market?

[gazza] 26/3/2019 13:51

I note that Trinity Delta are only forecasting a 2.3% market share for SCIB1 (melanoma) by 2024.
Anyone suggest why it is so low? How much of the $14B melanoma market will it actually be appropriate for?

[gazza] 26/3/2019 13:49

Inan,

"Bermuda and myself have tried to help ...but now you are throwing it back at me as if its my fault .. ???"

Not at all. I have a valuation model. We can use any figures but what I am trying to do is sense check them. I suggested 20% as being a good rate for a company. You said what about the other 80% - it's needs to be added back into the calculation.
It is pretty obvious that no company makes 100% net profit. So please don't come out with condescending claptrap like "your basic knowledge is just not up to what you are trying to do" when your own knowledge is clearly not up to it.

It is a MODEL, that's all, one that I am using to reassure myself that even if this is a success I won't lose all my money. I suggested we meet halfway - 60%. Did you think this was too low? Perhaps you envisage Prof Durrant using Nottingham university facilities with a couple of students finding new cures and selling them through big pharma. Even then it wouldn't be 100%, there will be Prof D's salary and fees to patent lawyers in the very least.

It strikes me as rather strange that someone who has gone into the minutiae of the science to the point of fanaticism in order to "de-risk" hasn't given any thought to what their investment might be worth IF it is successful. I guess applying some science to the numbers is making you realise your inflated plucked out the air figures don't stack up to SCRUTINY.

[the real lozan] 26/3/2019 12:31

As it's quiet... Let me take *US ALL* on a 'journey' - 'Picture the scene'
Nearly 40 years ago, Mrs Lozan and I were on our way to the Orkney Islands, I, having visited before I met her. She wishing to experience the romance and wild nature of those Isles, I spoke often of.
The day was warm and cloudless - early summer, 1981
We were sat, enjoying a break, on a high bank, overlooking the river Helmsdale, basking in the 'Glories' that nature provides - in *Smiler's country*.
Nothing but bird sounds, the 'bubbling River Helmsdale'... broken only by the SPLASH of wild salmon leaping to throw-off the sea-lice, as they moved upstream into fresh waters.
Idilic ???
Then, the silence was shattered by a 'person' clattering down the track, behind us.
A 'person', dressed in - Sandals, black socks, 'shorts'? {calf length}, garish Hawaiian short sleeved shirt... and = a Stetson.
His chest bristled with a number of expensive cameras, the best Japan had to offer at that time.... Spotting us, he shattered the idyll, by loudly shouting =
"Hi THERE -I'm an American"
To which, I replied = "Get away, Who would have guessed" ???
....
To what end is this - I hear folks ask ???
Well
Not many eyebrows would be lifted by the announcement of "Hi THERE -I'm an American"
BUT
It seems, many of *US ALL* have had the misfortune to have encountered someone who, with an 'oft reported, distasteful arrogance, initially IMPOSES HIMSELF with - - "I am a 'multi-Millionaire" { meaning ME,ME,ME }
Not many REAL ONEs do.

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 12:22

Gazza

I never said that, what you should be highlighting is what you think .. 20%

even your PE was significantly lower than Pharma average

you seem to want to wriggle out by blaming me for your numbers

which is why i declined to reply as this statement says it all ..

""" I had considered that the consumer/medical community sales and marketing would be out of Scancell costs. They still have to support the licencee(s)"""

which means that whatever numbers you come up with, your basic knowledge is just not up to what you are trying to do

Bermuda and myself have tried to help ...but now you are throwing it back at me as if its my fault .. ???

so i decline to get involved

[gazza] 26/3/2019 10:08

panama, yes but once the products are on the market, they will make 100% net profit according to inan.

[panama7] 26/3/2019 09:01

Goosed, totally agree , it's a shambles, trial was originally to start in 2016. Absolute disgrace that they treat the very people who are paying their salaries in this way. As I have said many times they don't give a Monkey's about their Investors. Can guarantee the next fundraise will run like clockwork and won't be 3 years late with the date continually moved.

[gooosed] 26/3/2019 08:30

Jeez - this IND fiasco rumbles on & on - at this rate even Brexit will be done & dusted before we get a "meaningful" update from Holloway.

[gazza] 26/3/2019 08:00

Or no company makes 100% net profit?

[gazza] 26/3/2019 07:59

Which one, meet you halfway?

[inanaco] 26/3/2019 01:29

Gazza

I don't even have to reply do I

that statement you have just made says it all

[gazza] 25/3/2019 22:30

Moljen,I agree. I had considered that the consumer/medical community sales and marketing would be out of Scancell costs. They still have to support the licencee(s) and presumably new research, new trials. As the company becomes cash generating they will award pay rises, recruit more directors, researchers, possibly some big names in the industry. Flashy offices to better reflect their new-found status, more conferences all over the world. Out of all the aforementioned, I hope the lions share will go to further research.

[gazza] 25/3/2019 22:07

"its ok giving a "clever reply" .. but in context its not"There's nothing clever about thinking ANY company can make 100% profit either?I say 20%, you say 100%, how about we meet in the middle - 60% ?