Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:35

Bermuda,
Many thanks for that. It looks like head and neck is about the same as Sarcoma value wise, not big numbers. There are big discrepancies in the estimates which I assume is down to HPV/non HPV. I have taken the smaller figure.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:29

gazza


Currently NHS market size

Every year, over 250,000 people in England are diagnosed with cancer, and around 130,000 die as a result of the disease. Annual NHS costs for cancer services are £5 billion, but the cost to society as a whole – including costs for loss of productivity – is £18.3 billion.8 May 2015

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 16:28

Gazza,

According to the last 2 RNS announcements Sarcoma has been replaced by head and neck cancer - buried in the text. If you want to look at that be careful as I assume it doesn't include HPV head and neck cancer.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:24

Bermuda,

I was looking at the Proactive presentation 2018. What document are you looking at where Sarcoma has disappeared?

I suppose they thought it wasn't worth it for 6p

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:18

Bermuda,

The market valuations are around 2022-2025. The valuations will only be achieved when the trials have completed successfully. That's got to be 5 years away?
This is the point when we be valued on earnings. Hopefully, between now and then, the gap between the current share price and potential value will close somewhat.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:16

explain markets

Gazza

let's take an untreatable cancer

in effect it has no market

no product exists

so how can you gauge the market size against current expenditure ?

well you can but you have to refer back to NICE valuations which is why i pointed to Nice on the LSE

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:14

""forget Modi1 .. its way to complex""

No it's not. It's the same as any other drug. The TNBC market has a value so we just need to know what that is and what % Scancell are likely to get.

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 16:13

Gazza,

Sarcoma appears to have disappeared as a target for Modi1

You need to specify at what stage you're trying to predict value, what date?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:12

would you agree with that Bermuda

Cr rate of PD-1 .. ?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:10

forget Modi1 .. its way to complex

because as i have explained its the "Complete response rate"

which means if it works it will be sensational..

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:08

Inanaco,

Thank you.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:08

So, in the spirit of "cracking on" ….

Apologies all, I missed Sarcoma off the MODI1 targets. This has an annual projected market of $1.2B so adds 6p to the share price taking us up to £1.93
I think we are in the realms of "diminishing returns" now.

But I'd be happy with £2 right now!

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:07

Gazza

yes i have many posts on the lse which you can refer back to

but really this needs to be you

i will not be critical .. i will give you suggestions only to improve accuracy if i can

[gooosed] 22/3/2019 16:06

of minor interest & taken from the Swedish Oncology site :

"Durrant has also developed a unique strategy to generate monoclonal antibodies to glycolipids."

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:03

Inan,

""Crack on then
I hope bermuda should help on this""

Are you not willing to contribute?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:02

Gazza

Crack on then

I hope bermuda should help on this

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:52

Bermuda
that value is subject to ... achieving
its not banked
with AVACTA

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:51

Let's make it simple to start:

The melanoma treatment market is estimated to be worth $14.1B by 2024.
Anyone contradict this figure?
What % of this are Scancell likely to get (assuming successful trials and FDA approval).
What percentage of patients will be suitable?
What is the competition?
Are there any markets that will be difficult to get into?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:51

Moditope is a cure

if it works in humans

it's not a treatment that creates stable disease .. because it induces stress and an unstable condition "autophagy" which feeds on itself in a chain reaction

so lindy does not describe the mice treated as Partial response only CR complete response

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 15:48

Inanaco,

I wasn't being critical, I was giving my honest opinion as to why Avacta's market cap is double that of Scancell. You dismissed my post but I think you are incorrect. If you're trying to value Avacta's products then surely you should look at the size of the deals they've secured - ie. the price pharma is willing to pay rather than the company's market cap.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:46

gazza

The reason why i stuck to just SCIB1 .. on the values on the lse .. is the very reason why i have posted the CR rate of Pd-1 v the potential of moditope

because if i actually print the values if that CR rate goes above 2% then

you just name your own price ... its telephone numbers

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 15:44

Gazza,

At what date are you trying to forecast a value - today, next year, 3 years?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:42

bermuda

If you have a better product and stock to use or a better explanation of trying to value the pipeline .. then add to the thread ..

because i don't have another Immunobody and moditope share to directly value our mcap to

this is the point of open discussion .. rather than trying to be critical, offer an alternative view as Lozan has asked for many times which apparently this BB is famous for

except Lozan never has a view

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:40

Inan,

I have to a value based on these factors:

1) Market value
2) Market Share
3) Net profit %/License fee%

I have done this for the first 4 targets (Melanoma, NSCLC, TNBC and Ovarian)

I would welcome your input (or anyone else's) on the above 3 points. I do not as yet have a confirmed figure for the market value of TNBC.

I welcome debate on what percentage royalties might be, any examples?
I welcome debate on what market share percent Scancell are likely to achieve on the 4 targets.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:38

Do you get that gazza

so when scancells data comes out on Moditope its the CR that is of massive interest

Complete response

not

Partial response

CR rate of 69 out of 3153 patients

which is why you can be Billions of the mark ... because of that number 69 out of 3153