Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 12:40

gazza

It's not just Keytruda melanoma sales ... it could also capture Opdivo sales if they cannot compete against the Combo with SCIB1

we could capture 45% of this market (HLA suitable)

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 12:32

the point i am making

they are going head to head with established PD-1 products who will also be going for combination

hxxps://immuno-oncologynews.com/relatlimab/


Pipeline
Avacta has a pre-clinical stage biopharmaceutical pipeline of Affimer therapeutic candidates for in-house development and partnering. Our focus is on immuno-oncology (IO), a therapeutic area for which the Affimer technology has several key benefits. Avacta’s lead pre-clinical programme is a PD-L1/LAG-3 single molecule bispecific inhibitor. The second major pre-clinical programme is based on the ground-breaking TMAC platform and is a PD-L1 tumour microenvironment targeted I-DASH inhibitor. Beyond these two main programmes, the company is building a portfolio of I-O antagonists and agonists to support future programmes and partnering.


so They are getting deals because of the markets impression that a market exists
ie its known

but it's still pre clinical ..

I have explained this before ... they will have to go up against the "current standard of care"

if SCIB1 and keytruda become the "current standard of care" they would have to trial with SCIB1

the Vaccine immunobody is a core component that can used with most Checkpoints so the market share does not diminish with competition from checkpoints

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:21

Inan,

Your 21057.
What's your point?

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:19

Inanaco,

You make a valid point.

"so far i have seen nothing that is representative for the simple reason Keytruda is a standard of care treatment .. with proven sales, so if you can pretty well double efficacy why would you only achieve 5% market penetration."

If it improves efficacy then it should be sold with every keytruda melanoma treatment.

Do you know what the value of Keytruda melanoma sales are?
What percentage of this do you think will go to Scancell?
Are you assuming a licencing deal will be done with Merck?
What if Merck are outbid by, say, Roche? How will it be split three ways?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 12:15

Gazza

just take this share as an example ..

Hardman & Co: A second wake-up call for the market

Avacta (AVCT) is a pre-clinical stage biotechnology company and the proprietary owner of Affimer technology. Affimers represent a radical alternative to the established antibody technology. The significant technical and commercial benefits of Affimers are being increasingly recognised, evidenced by corporate and academic interests, ongoing evaluations and deal flow. AVCT has just announced that, following a review period, Moderna has exercised its option to enter into an exclusive licensing agreement to further develop certain Affimer therapeutics for undisclosed targets. This is the second licensing deal with a major pharma player in the past few months.


pre-clinical stage biotechnology

[tosh123] 22/3/2019 12:12

Thanks Gazza.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:11

BTW, I personally don't believe anything near 100% is at all feasible.

But for those who like cloud cuckoo land, if we were to get 100% of global revenue in all 4 targets the share price would be £37.39. (that's including 100% dilution) -

you see why I'm not bothered about dilution, only about lack of cash and/or lack of licensing deals.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:08

Inanaco,

I'm not saying my figures are correct, I don't have a crystal ball either!

What I AM saying is IF Scancell were to get a 5% share AND they get a 10% royaly, this is what they would be valued at.

Make the case for a higher % and I will give you the results. It is up to the individual investor to decide which figures are the more feasible.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:04

Tosh,

Possibly! I think becoming a big pharma has to be ruled out, the cash requirements are just too big and cash raise is heavily dependent on the share price which on AIM is very volatile. The licensing model is far more feasible. In theory, the cash requirements will be modest and the follow on products could be funded from licence fees on the early ones (like SCIB1 and SCIB2). This is why it is so important to get these progressed as quickly as possible.


Looking at Melanoma (SCIB1), Lung Cancer (SCIB2), TNBC (I have guessed $8B unless anyone tells me different) and Ovarian (both MODI1) taking a modest market share (5%) and a 10% licence fee you have potentially £3.74. This would require less cash than becoming a pharma so the dilution effect wouldn't be as drastic. a 100% dilution would be £1.87 per share. (That's for the four targets listed)

The dilution is the hardest to predict. The market value (revenue) is constant(ish). We can play around with market share % and license fee %. The dilution depends on the price. So raising £10M at 10p would not be as dilutive as raising £10M at 5p (to state the obvious!) The lower the price, the more slice of your cake the johnny come latelys are nicking.

Hope this makes sense, AIMO of course.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 11:45

You are assuming Gazza has his figures correct .. Tosh

so far i have seen nothing that is representative for the simple reason Keytruda is a standard of care treatment .. with proven sales, so if you can pretty well double efficacy why would you only achieve 5% market penetration.

Patent challenge ? how ? any product that entered the trial process to approval would be transparent if a "copy" was attempted do you think it would break "Orphan Status"
let alone the patent system

The Orphan Drug Act (ODA) provides for granting special status to a drug or biological product (“drug”) to treat a rare disease or condition upon request of a sponsor. This status is referred to as orphan designation (or sometimes “orphan status”).

[tosh123] 22/3/2019 11:18

Gazza,
so to get anywhere near the ludicrous £8, it would take for all platforms to be successful and a land grab of many percentage points of all the market share currently on offer....plus the world to be proven to be flat, and a live Elvis Presley & Michael Jackson concert in Milton Keynes.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 10:50

just to add...

Applying the same criteria to Ovarian cancer, the share price for this is 6p. I am yet to get a figure for TNBC.

So Immunobody is commercially more lucrative than Moditope in the short/medium term.

The effort (financially) should be put into SCIB1 as it is the most advanced and most proven, and SCIB2 as it is externally funded.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 10:43

Panama, I get a little exasperated by talk of "deals" and especially "non-dilutive" funding. There is no such think as non-dilutive, all funding by its very nature is dilutive as you are pouring more money into the pot. The best you can look at it is "deferred dilution" you put off the dilution until there is some generated income and the parties with a stake want their money back or a return. Licencing is simply giving away some of the future earnings (in the future). The value of Scancell is in the market for its treatments, how much of that market it can grab and how efficiently they operate (not very good to date).

The market for Melanoma is USD14B per year. If Scancell were to get just 5% of this and make a GP of 10%. this alone would be worth £1.38 per share. Fantastic you say, BUT how much will it cost to get a phase II trial drug to market? will £200M cover all the trials, marketing, selling, support, fighting patent infringements, law suits etc. Probably not.
That's 10 times the market cap of Scancell. Factor that in and you get 14p per share.

On the other hand you could licence it and let the big pharma handle the trial costs, marketing etc. What percentage of the revenue would Scancell get? 10%, 20%?
10% would get a share price of 14p, 20% would get 28p.

So Scancell have got drugs potentially worth millions, it's the cost of unlocking the value that is the issue. This is what happens with lots of Bios, you only have to look at VAl.

[panama7] 22/3/2019 10:09

Gazza, I take it from that you are discounting any sort of deal from Biontech.

[panama7] 22/3/2019 10:04

Yet another week without the IND, absolute shambles. In answer to your question Loz, this time next year we'll still be waiting for the IND and the MODI1 trial will have been moved to 2021.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 10:02

Loz, Where do I think we will be in one years time?A great question and I think you have identified a crucial point in NOT where do we HOPE we will be. With hindsight, everything that has happened the past few years was predictable! I know you may think the statement is daft but think about it! Nothing that has happened has been a BIG surprise, a disappointment yes, but surprise no. So when looking ahead, do we apply logic and see what past history teaches us or go for what we hope.The argument for more of the same: Scancell will face the same big issue they have the past 6/7 years. They are a small bio without the funds to unlock the value they MAY have. Having failed to do a deal in 7 years, they probably won't now. If the trials are delayed further and the data is delayed or inconclusive we will be looking at 3p this time next year. A cash raise is likely.The argument for HOPE: well we can't go on like this forever can we. Trials started and some promising data back to 12p Or 8p with dilution. A deal, possibly 20p.Realistically, I think we are 3/4 years away from big returns

[gazza] 22/3/2019 09:47

TNBC MarketBermuda, thanks for your input. I did thank Inanaco for his input over on LSE as well. This is how BBs should work, you ask a question and get lots of answers. Hopefully, one will tell you everything you need to know but often you get a collection of pieces to work with yourself.Sorry for fragmenting Lozan's topic which is an interesting question, but just wanted to say thanks.

[tosh123] 22/3/2019 08:41

Good question Loz... will be interesting to hear peoples various thoughts.

[the real lozan] 22/3/2019 08:13

I see- Not me then....So =
Question to ALL -
Where do we think we will be, with this 'investment' - This time NEXT year ???
NOT = Where do we HOPE we will be, with this 'investment' - This time NEXT year ???
Think about it,
BUT,
Suppose we had asked ourselves this question, at this time- end March, in each of the last 6 years ???
I don't believe anyone would think/say - Money 'pumped in, No trials started,
No deals secured, S P = SUB 6p.- I believe, this is the LAST thing we would think / say
BUT
WHY is that, Where did the 'opposite thinking' come from ???
The Bod 'promises' { Trials to 'start', "Doors to BIG Pharmas are open" ETC, } ???
The trHYPE gang 'promises' { This will be £8+ a share, Science is 'proven' ETC. }
DIDN'T happen
SO ... Maybe it isn't so daft to ask =
Where do we think we will be, with this 'investment' - This time NEXT year ???
.And - WHY, do we think that ???
Good morning each, by the way

[the real lozan] 22/3/2019 07:41

Tosh -
21039 ???

[tosh123] 22/3/2019 07:35

Waffle waffle squirm squirm...

[the real lozan] 22/3/2019 06:57

Question to ALL -
Where do we think we will be, with this 'investment' - This time NEXT year ???
NOT = Where do we HOPE we will be, with this 'investment' - This time NEXT year ???
Think about it,
BUT,
Suppose we had asked ourselves this question, at this time- end March, in each of the last 6 years ???
I don't believe anyone would think/say - Money 'pumped in, No trials started,
No deals secured, S P = SUB 6p.- I believe, this is the LAST thing we would think / say
BUT
WHY is that, Where did the 'opposite thinking' come from ???
The Bod 'promises' { Trials to 'start', "Doors to BIG Pharmas are open" ETC, } ???
The trHYPE gang 'promises' { This will be £8+ a share, Science is 'proven' ETC. }
DIDN'T happen
SO ... Maybe it isn't so daft to ask =
Where do we think we will be, with this 'investment' - This time NEXT year ???
.And - WHY, do we think that ???
Good morning each, by the way

[bermudashorts] 21/3/2019 18:53

ah OK - I thought he asked about the size of the TNBC market and you advised him to look at NICE to get a clear picture of value. Obviously not what you meant.

[inanaco] 21/3/2019 18:26

that is what i replied to Bermuda

ruckrovers post


""""Did anyone manage to find out how much the market for triple negative breast cancer is?
I believe it will be one of the first MODI in human trials.""""

answered perfectly with

"""the issue is staging ... to try to assess market size, moditope is a late stage treatment as such we do not yet know the optimal staging thus its difficult to predict patient numbers, because many that fall through early diagnosis will not do well because of the aggressive nature of the decease. """


i appreciate your input ... but you are adding information that was not asked by Ruckrover