Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:24

bermuda ..

the deals are not relevant ...

it's the Product we are trying to place value on relative to scancell pipeline

which is why i used it .. the fact that it has deals because its a known entity ie they are developing a PD-1 with approved PD-1 in the marketplace

i feel you should read the post in context ... rather yet again taking it out of context

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:21

Your biggest issue which you seem unable to grasp

is efficacy which is why i highlighted NICE values on the LSE BB

you see if you see PD1 sales at 30% efficacy max

which a platform which effectively what PD1 is .. because of number of targets

so is comparable with Moditope

what is that worth if it goes to 70% ? not decease stable but disease eradicated

this is the fundamental issue of what i keep trying to highlight

PD1 complete response rates

In patients who received anti-PD1/PD-L1 mAbs, CR was obtained in 69/3153 patients (2.19%) and PR was obtained in 596/3153 (18.90%).

look at those percentages

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 15:19

Inanaco,

The reason why Avacta's market cap is twice that of Scancell is that they have signed a $310m licensing deal with LG Chem and a second deal for an undisclosed sum with loaded Moderna ($6 billion market cap). They still only have 115m shares in issue with a high proportion held by institutions. It's as simple as that.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:18

I'd post the formula but your brain would probably explode LOL

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:17

Sorry, you've not understood a thing have you?

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:16

""i dont know how you have got to £1.87""

""i seem to be doing all the technical side of the posts ..""

PMSL

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:13

Inan,

""well if you think that, sell up and buy that share ..""

Please stop telling people what they should and shouldn't invest in PLEASE!

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:12

Gazza

i dont know how you have got to £1.87

i seem to be doing all the technical side of the posts ..

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:12

Inan,

""your £1.87 is meaningless in context because its the tip of the iceberg for this group of epitopes""

No it is not meaningless. If this is the tip of the iceberg, I'm valuing the tip of the iceberg. Give me the next 4 targets and I will value them for you. But as I said earlier, these will be 10 years off at least.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:10

Panama7 ..

well if you think that, sell up and buy that share ..

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:09

Inan,

""It changes the pre clinical value of the combination of the SCIB1 keytruda trial""

It possibly closes the gap between its current value on the stock market to its potential value based on everything succeeding. So a pharma may pay over the prevailing share price to buy it or license it.

It won't change the final figure of £1.87 (for 4 targets)

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:09

which is why i am trying to explain to you that Success with Moditope

could be transformative ... because its capable of treating patients that PD-1s cannot treat ... as well as can treat at a far higher efficacy via multiple routes

and to do so without toxicity across 17 cancers at this stage

your £1.87 is meaningless in context because its the tip of the iceberg for this group of epitopes

[panama7] 22/3/2019 15:06

Inanaco, Avacta Market Cap £40m at preclinical stage as opposed to Scancell £20m after a successful trial and over 7 years of research and development. Seems one Company's BOD are doing their job.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:04

Inan,

""which one has failed""
None have failed. We all agree on that. The commercialisation and valuation is based on SUCCESS. The valuation if it failed would be zero.

""you just do not understand Scancell at all and the way Big Pharma can transform this in days ...once its understood the potential""

Sorry, it is you who don't understand some basic commercial realities. We are trying to value Scancell based on success. The science behind that success is irrelevant, the only important thing is it works. IF it works then potentially it can grap a slice of a market that has a somewhat static value (OK, it is predicted to rise a bit year on year due to increased population and people getting sicker/older.

The commercial opportunity does not increase because the science is different, clever or Prof Durrant has a glint in her eye. The probability of success may well be different but we are only analysing the SUCCESS part of the binary options so please stop obfuscating.

The fantastic results (if and when achieved) and the news bulletins will NOT increase the potential market value but hopefully it will close the gap between the SP, currently 5.85p and its potential value £1.87 (for 4 targets)

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:55

bermuda

In relation to the thread "Values"

It changes the pre clinical value of the combination of the SCIB1 keytruda trial

if you accept that SCIB1 generates CD4/ CD8 T cells that work in Humans and Keytruda locks out the PD-1 ligand on those CD8 T cells ..

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 14:49

Inanaco,


I can easily answer that one - neither has failed. What's your point?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:47

Gazza you post

Wake up! Yes I am valuing a future point - the next 3-5 years for 2 SCIB and 2 MODI targets. MODI1 hasn't even started phase 1 trials yet. How far ahead do you think another 15 targets are going to take? 10-15 years. Too late for my pension fund!

you just do not understand Scancell at all and the way Big Pharma can transform this in days ...once its understood the potential

collaboration of 3 epitopes TCR is the beginning of this process with BioNtech
the modi1 trail PHASE 1 could be transformational moment

BBC news .. Scancell in its phase 1 trial cures 3 patients of cancer !! that is the potential of the immune response ... it destroys cancer

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:42

I have given you avacta Mcap £40m preclinical

twice that of scancell

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:41

well value it ...

i am not stopping you

I have already given you a mass of data on SCIB1 you only have to read my history back a month or two a go

you can add in the "mouse" posts with Tosh ..

you can add in the quality of my posts around T cell function with keytruda and how the mechanism of action cannot fail otherwise

SCIB1 has failed

or keytruda has failed

which is why Bermuda could never answer that question .. "which one has failed"

[gazza] 22/3/2019 14:36

Inan,

""explain how Merck has an exclusive license? ""

They don't and I never said they did.
But if this works, they would be stupid not to try and negotiate one.
Or as Panama asks, why haven't they signed up already. It could always be conditional on result criteria.

""how can Opdivo on its own compete with an "approved Combo of Merck and SCIB1" which could be owned by any Major Pharma if they sign up with Scancell and run a phase 3""

Maybe they won't. If SCIB1 becomes they de facto then either Opdivo have to get a deal or Merck gets 100% market share. Makes no difference to Scancell. I said this earlier, don't you see it?

""If you are going to value a future point ie phase 2 trials of modi1
then you have to consider the Whole package not just TNBC because it forms part of a Group of 17 cancers""

Wake up! Yes I am valuing a future point - the next 3-5 years for 2 SCIB and 2 MODI targets. MODI1 hasn't even started phase 1 trials yet. How far ahead do you think another 15 targets are going to take? 10-15 years. Too late for my pension fund!

[panama7] 22/3/2019 14:32

Inanaco, you have just stated Merck have an exclusive license, can you tell us how much they paid Scancell for that exclusivity and why Scancell have not RNS'd it as I am sure it would have a very significant impact on the Shareprice and would alleviate any requirement for funding.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:29

why would they need to ?

after all the trial is with keytruda so they have guaranteed sales

surely if the data is impressive then other options for them come into play

[gazza] 22/3/2019 14:27

Panama,
Good question.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:21

read the posts again .. it may help

explain how Merck has an exclusive license ?

how can Opdivo on its own compete with an "approved Combo of Merck and SCIB1" which could be owned by any Major Pharma if they sign up with Scancell and run a phase 3

you then posted

""""very interesting but still don't get the point in relation to valuing the Scancell pipeline. The only factors in my valuation are:"""

you have not valued the pipeline, because the pipeline is Today ... you are trying to value a future position .. so it's an estimate of value

i tried to explain how complex that was by using Avacta ... purely based on preclinical values and how the market places value because it has a direct comparison ie PD1 to PD1

yet that is the worse position to be in as you are competing with similar technology

this is what i was trying to explain with MTFB .. it was competing against vancomycin an off patent cheap generic which means its value has to come from Subgroups within the trials

what i look for in a bIo .. is certainty of market share ... not uncertainty of market share

Avacta has uncertainty because by the time it gets into trial the competition could be streets ahead

If you are going to value a future point ie phase 2 trials of modi1

then you have to consider the Whole package not just TNBC because it forms part of a Group of 17 cancers