Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[bermudashorts] 25/3/2019 14:59

Gazza,

Not sure I'm with you - all DCF valuations are based on projected sales and the fact that Trinity have factored royalties into their valuation suggests they're assuming the products will be licensed. We don't know what assumptions they're making for the timing of any licensing deal - in terms of revenue it's not that important, it's the percentage figure that counts no matter when the deal is struck. It could make a tremendous difference to costs of course.

[gazza] 25/3/2019 14:09

Thanks for the responses guys.

Bermuda,

There would be no sales if it was in clinical trials. The Trinity figures are based on sales of approved product with a launch date of 2024 (Melanoma) and 2025 (NSCLC). The royalty on NSCLC is 15% allowing for the CRUK cut.

[bermudashorts] 25/3/2019 14:02

inanaco,

what do you mean?

[inanaco] 25/3/2019 13:43

Bermuda ..

have you just posted .. "variable" ? for those looking to translate that LOL

[bermudashorts] 25/3/2019 13:22

goooosed

Thanks for that

[bermudashorts] 25/3/2019 13:21

Gazza,

That would be a fairly typical rate for a phase IIb or III product. For preclinical you'd be looking at low single digit percentages and for phase I/II - single digit to low double digit. Royalty rates often remain confidential so worth remembering that it's hard to get accurate figures for averages and of course they vary tremendously. Often also tiered with different percentages for different levels of sales.

All IMO of course

[inanaco] 25/3/2019 12:50

depends if the deal is front or end loaded ..

basically the "overall value" is the start point so it depends on mainly Efficacy in that the Risk element is high or low .. if its low then a end loaded deal is far more preferential as you retain the possibility of efficacy value being included.

this is why i think Moditope is so difficult because "Complete Response" efficacy could add billions to its value .. again if you look at the NICE formulae these elements really do make a difference to the amount you can charge

[gazza] 25/3/2019 12:20

Thanks goosed.

just going back to valuations:

I notice in the Trinity Delta report valuation, they use a royalty figure of 17%. Is this an industry average does anyone know?

[gooosed] 25/3/2019 09:43

Scancell attracting early (research/academic) interest in its Glyco platform :

[the real lozan] 23/3/2019 09:57

P S -
Inane'n'co spouts - "except Lozan never has a view"
It is NOT ""except Lozan never has a view""
One might believe - It is my fault this sits at sub 6p ???
It IS the 'VIEW' = 6p...Of the market = REAL Experts, experienced people in the REAL financial world... not "Lozan's View".
Do *WE ALL* think they are WRONG ???
OR
Do *WE ALL* 'place our TRUST in, and believe *the words* of'...a self CONfessed spiv, Who - Whilst urging others to 'BUY'BUY'BUY and HOLD {on to resulting LOSSES} - to - "GO ALL IN", "NO RISK here" etc.
WAS
Secretly SELLING { do not forget HIS SCAM mates, who were probably doing the same}
=
It could be said - Lozan is not alone in *Lozan's VIEW* as to WHO is 'TRUSTWORTHY or NOT'

[inanaco] 23/3/2019 00:53

Gazza

bermuda and myself are talking about modi1

TNBC ... using modi1 instead of radical surgery / adjuvant chemo

[gazza] 22/3/2019 23:05

Bermuda, thanks again.Inan, The value of the melanoma treatment market is reportedly $14b dollars. Are you saying this cost is only drugs and that other costs, for example, surgery could be added to a drug such as SCIB1 as it could replace surgery?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 20:19

the complete response rate is absolutely critical in the modi1 trials because the bulk tumour before surgery and adjuvant chemo maybe indicative of the highest point in the autophagy cycle

which is why i just do not see how you can firm any valuation because you are missing so much data ...

however if a CR appears in Phase 1 .... get excited

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 20:13

I keep explaining that you still as yet do not know staging .. reason why i say that Bermuda is it maybe possible to save the patient before a mastectomy rather than after ...


hxxps://www.clinicaloncologyonline.net/article/S0936-6555(18)30442-4/fulltext

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 20:00

Ruck,

Around 7,500 new cases of TNBC are diagnosed in the UK each year out of a total of approx. 170,000 worldwide.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 19:18

that is up to Ruck .. it is his project

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 18:57

because every stage has a "standard of care"

for instance

melanoma first ""standard of care""" is surgery

second stage is adjuvant to surgery

etc etc



NICE ... well it's indicative of value Bermuda .. not sure what algorithm you would use for a """ global drug marketing valuation """

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 18:33

which means

valuations per patient would have to be considered using NICE formula

which brings us back to square one again

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 18:32

fine ...

but that then creates a problem as Ruck was trying to use the expenditure to that point as a gauge to market size, when you cannot because it's already been spent

thus Moditope technically could be a Brand new market if we know the exact point of vaccine delivery to staging

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 18:29

......but we have been told by Lindy Durrant that the setting for Moditope is late stage, bulky tumours - so would you agree that at least Modi1 will target stage IV breast cancer patients? It may be that it's also suitable for some earlier stages but for now stage IV would be a reasonable assumption?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 18:12

I refer back to my original post that we discussed


inanaco - 21 Mar 2019 - 18:26:02 - 21036 of 21136 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
that is what i replied to Bermuda

ruckrovers post


""""Did anyone manage to find out how much the market for triple negative breast cancer is?
I believe it will be one of the first MODI in human trials.""""

answered perfectly with

"""the issue is staging ... to try to assess market size, moditope is a late stage treatment as such we do not yet know the optimal staging thus its difficult to predict patient numbers, because many that fall through early diagnosis will not do well because of the aggressive nature of the decease. """

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 18:05

Inanaco,

So do you see Modi1 as a first line treatment for late stage TNBC?