Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[miavoce] 06/3/2019 09:35

Hi the real lozan I doubt that the 5m sale was a result of CF simply deciding that SCLP was no longer worth holding. CF have disposed of large blocks of multiple stocks in the last couple if days which IMO is down to either a wave of client withdrawals following the potential administration news, or part of a strategy to position the fund for liquidation / closure.

[oldnotwise] 06/3/2019 09:30

Miavoce
Certainly won't argue with anything you've said, I'm simply taking the situation as it could be interpreted.... (perhaps extreme) but I find that if I look at both best and worst cases for any particular situation it allows me to find a mean and then I'm in a position quite early on to see what the other investors might be thinking, and from that point where the immediate move might be in the share price
I guess it's a bit like listing pros and cons and then trying to divine the real world position.
I wish it always worked out for me, sadly it doesn't, (no claims of always getting it right from me!).
So we know why CF have done what they've done, the big question (in this small area of the Scancell story) is, "What happens next?" Always a tricky one to try and answer IMO!.
I like to try an informed guess at this stage hence looking at both sides...
:-)
AIMO
ATB

[gazza] 06/3/2019 09:30

Perhaps they thought suggestions of £6 were wildly exaggerated by a factor of 10 rather than, as it turns out, a factor of 100.

[the real lozan] 06/3/2019 09:29

P S -
Some said...INSISTED, rHatton was 'foolish' to take 11.6p

[the real lozan] 06/3/2019 09:26

RE ...20308 -
" I don't think it is quite that bad as CF have disposed of many other shares in the funds over the last 10 months in response to client withdrawals. "
.
Would it not be 'probable' that City F....held on as long as they could {10months } in hopes that their 21 mil+ shares in SCLP... MIGHT recover...via some 'bounce' in S P, that the long awaited 'PROMISE' of 'Progress / Action' MIGHT take place.
IT didn't...City F.. paid the price
Some may opine..City F... were 'lucky' to get 6p.

[miavoce] 06/3/2019 09:14

Hi ONW

ref you comment "I'm rather disappointed that SCLP was in the first wave".

I don't think it is quite that bad as CF have disposed of many other shares in the funds over the last 10 months in response to client withdrawals.

CF appear to have significantly shrunk their Absolute Equity fund in the period from 30.4.18 to 31.10.18. The net assets in the fund fell in this period from £853m to £581m (p.9) but only £170m of that is accounted for by falling share prices (fund NAV per share fell by 19.8% - p.6) so there must have been circa £100m of client withdrawal driven stock sales (fund shares in issue fell from 257k to 227k so must have been 30k shares redeemed by clients - p9). However, in this period, CF did not sell any Scancell shares so must have been perceived by CF to have more potential than other shares in their fund.

All info above taken from the following document (originally posted by Ivyspivey):-

[tosh123] 06/3/2019 09:11

Teror,
i agree entirely and posted as much yesterday. This is a perfect opportunity to show support by taking more skin in the company.
But i doubt it will happen.

As for L & G front running the inevitable down turn,,, which fund manager under pressure to perform, wouldn't have a little nibble, but if they did, they probably did so by stealth, so doubt we'll ever really know.

Anyway, a few very interesting days / weeks coming up. Will be great to see how this unwinds and who ends up with the shares.

[terror] 06/3/2019 09:03

Tosh

L&G might have had wind of this and sold out to buy back - possibly.

A strategic partner will see this as a great opportunity. The 5m shares went somewhere and I expect there will be more drops without any negative share price impact.

The BofD should be buying, that will send a very positive message to shareholders.

PIs do not have the capacity to purchase the shares so it needs Goodfellow and Co to use their many connections from their many conferences to broker a deal - not holding much hope here.

[tosh123] 06/3/2019 08:53

Morning Loz / Berm,
honestly no need for an apology, but very gracious of you anyway.

It will be even more interesting to see what happens with the remaining 16m or so.

This is where the NOMAD and corporate brokers come into their own. Lets see what they are made of.

[terror] 06/3/2019 08:45

BTW C7

It was my purchase of 10000 shares this morning.

This is an opportunity for a strategic partner and the BOD to show faith in Scancell. Let's wait and see.

[terror] 06/3/2019 08:34

Loz

Great post.

The destroyer of free speech on the MFF suddenly finds all the people with the ASTUTE information are on here.

Copy and Paste is back.

[the real lozan] 06/3/2019 08:29

An 'Alternative View' as peace 'appears to break out -
* Beware of geeks bearing rifts *

[oldnotwise] 06/3/2019 08:16

Bermuda,
Thanks, but the BB's the winner overall, so long may it continue! :-)
As to City Financial (CF),I think it's rather ironic that SCLP's rather sad situation (SP wise) has to be highlighted by the (potential) failure of CF, and that because of the alleged impropriety of one or more of that company's BOD.The massive irony is that the relatively poor performance of Scancell shares has contributed to the company's woes (and thus the disclosure of the loans that created the "difficulties" for CF.
I'm impressed that nettles appear to have been grasped relatively quickly (in terms of thinning out holdings), but I'm rather disappointed that SCLP was in the first wave.
However, that reflects the reality of SCLP's recent history, and we still have to see what transpires with the remaining holding.
I guess (yet again) we can only wait and see, but It's so sad that when we are (SP wise) not wanted by the market we end up being part of a (partial) liquidation by a company that has shown not to have demonstrated the best Financial Discipline.
It's all attention by Association, but it will also show anyone looking at our shares as a result of looking at the CF story what our share price history has been. It's sadly not the best chart in the world (unless we attract contrarian thinkers, which might just be the case). However I look at it, it's not too helpful, but not insurmountable.
OK that's the downside IMO, the case can be argued on the other side, and I'm sure it will be ......
Fingers crossed, and I'm off on a Bunny hunt, whilst watching for further developments in the CF story :-)
AIMO
ATB

[gazza] 06/3/2019 08:15

Great minds!

[bermudashorts] 06/3/2019 07:59

Gazza - posts crossed

[gazza] 06/3/2019 07:59

I agree miavoce, there will almost certainly be a buy or buyers for this tranche, perhaps one existing holder and one new player?

[bermudashorts] 06/3/2019 07:59

Chelsea,

yes I had a look at that link thanks. Interesting to compare bios although you have to be a bit careful when looking at staff nos. Many of them are virtual bios - ie. they don't actually do any R&D themselves and outsource everything so obviously their staff nos. will be lower.

[gazza] 06/3/2019 07:54

C7, I wouldn't get too hung up on these sort of comparisons. Revenue per employee is not only sector dependent but also dependent on stage they are at. A start up will have no revenue and plenty of costs whereas a well established company may tail back r&d, have well established route to market and a loyal customer base. These will have high levels of revenue per employee, the proverbial "cash cow". If you try to make the comparison with m cap, then I think we all agree the m cap is not always representative of ip worth or potential so ratios not that meaningful.Aimo.

[miavoce] 06/3/2019 07:49

Hi C7

IMO there would have been a buyer for the 5m block as I cannot see the MM's wanting to take 5m SCLP at 6p for their own book as this would have been a significant gamble for them. Will be interesting to see if we get an RNS stating that an existing major holder has added 5m or whether we hear nothing further about this 5m in which case they will have gone to a new or smaller holder.

[chelsea35] 06/3/2019 07:46

Morning Bermuda, that is what the LSE BB is sadly missing, just "bouncing around ideas". Well i "bounced" one this morning, would be interested in your thoughts.

Was very surprised to at the M/Caps of other Bios, posted that too. Seems the whole sector has taken a hiding for various reasons, and the staffing level of Scancell compared to others was high. There are a few differing opinions about that, but i really do think we have stepped up a few gears, for a very good reason. Time will tell, but lets hope the time is short. Have a good day guys, should be a few large, delayed even, trades to come. ATVB

[bermudashorts] 06/3/2019 07:19

Chelsea, welcome and good to see you posting here again.

ONW - nice post and agree it's really useful to bounce around ideas, especially with unusual situations such as the City Financial one.

[chelsea35] 06/3/2019 04:46

Bermuda, as ever good to read your posts, you beat me to posting what other shares City have sold, and just decided not to bother about Scott Gottlieb. ATB to you, you are sorely missed.

[chelsea35] 06/3/2019 04:41

Morning you guys, haven"t looked in for many months as you know. Many interesting posts the last week and well done too on City Financial. As you said ONW, you hope someone isn"t getting in cheap when it was 6.08 to buy. As you can see from my posts, i think there is and expecting to see corresponding trades this week after the 5m sell was posted up late yesterday.

Hoping you guys are all well and certainly been missing your opinions during that time, very contrary to what was portrayed, I just couldn"t be doing with the petty rows, which i see do still exist and so very pointless.

My best regards to you all, we agree on much...............c7

[bermudashorts] 05/3/2019 21:57

In other news - surprise resignation from Scott Gottlieb, head of the FDA