Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[panama7] 02/3/2019 15:17

Miavoce, I wouldn't worry Inanaco has stated on several occasions that anyone wanting to buy a stake in Scancell would have to pay significantly more than the current share price One would then assume that if CF needed to sell 21m shares other II's would be queuing up to pay a premium. We all know how right he is about everything.

[inanaco] 02/3/2019 15:16

As i have pointed out before "High Risk" is held by those that least understand it ..

and can rarely explain it ...

[miavoce] 02/3/2019 15:15

Hi Inanaco

I am aware that share price and IP value are often disconnected, particularly in a new / hard to understand area such as onco-immunology where there is little precedent and perceived high risk - the market will catch up on that eventually (I suspect that a commercial deal will be the catalyst to start that process).

I agree that ii's don't normally do things in a disorderly way, and certainly I hope the same is true here if CF have to dispose of their SCLP holding.

I notice that the fund in which CF hold their SCLP shares has not performed well over the last few years - lets hope the fund investors have patience (like the rest of us).

[inanaco] 02/3/2019 14:47

Thing is Mia you could say the same about any shareholder, they may hold over 5% but that still leaves 95%

But from my experience its very rare that a disorderly market is created by institutions .. on the contrary they tend to exit on high Vol events

Helium exit moved the share price down .. but it was drip drip drip .. if it was because of Scancell why did the market buy them ? you see there is always a counterparty

The problem with the share price movement it may have nothing to do with Scancell ... which is why it's not a reliable indicator of the IP value

[miavoce] 02/3/2019 14:28

Hi Inanaco, I believe that you are right that CF cannot sell the shares to cover their own costs as it is client money, but City Financial could sell the stock if they either felt is was the right thing to do to best manage the fund under their particular circumstances, or if they are driven to do so by fund investors withdrawing their investments. Hopefully they won't have either need to sell the stock.

I believe that the worst case is that there there is a disorderly flight of investors from the fund (due to the broader issues being faced by CF) and a consequently disorderly sale of shares held by the fund into the open market. This would be bad for the share price A better case is that the CF funds are taken over by another party, but if this happens then the new fund manager may decide not to hold SCLP. Best case is that CF sort out their problems and carry on with their existing investments.

I have a large number of SCLP shares (and have great faith that we will come good over the next year or two) so I would of course like to see the 'best case' outcome.

BTW, thanks for you informative posts on the core science, much appreciated.

[inanaco] 02/3/2019 14:13

Lozan

Stick to watching the Grass Grow ..... Not sure which will come first

ONW's ... "intellectual research Patent"

""" Thanks again for the detail; waiting's probably the only practical option, but it would be an interesting intellectual excercise to try to unravel the vagaries. """

or

Another episode after the last 350 posts on mowing .... spread over 6 years...

[oldnotwise] 02/3/2019 14:07

L and G (who hopefully aren't distressed)have been a seller (for whatever reason), so I don't think we can say that shares are not sold because of their particular P/L level.
In fact a fund manager may decide to cut losses in poorly performing holdings, and if cash is required those such items (the sort of shares that have been the reason for the Fund Managers' sustantial underperformance) may be the first to be critically looked at.
So we hope that there won't be an oversupply of SCLP in the near future but it's certainly something worth bearing in mind, should share price weakness be seen over the coming weeks.
As to the ultimate fate of City Financial, hopefully, they could still survive.
AIMO
ATB

[the real lozan] 02/3/2019 14:05

RISK = RISK
trHYPING "NO RISK" = "clutter"....COSTLY "clutter"

[inanaco] 02/3/2019 13:42

they can't just liquidate a position "to pay its own bills" its client money ...

worse case the fund will be sold off to other fund managers who will manage it ,,

but that does not mean they will liquidate scancell at a 40% loss ... they will consider the investment as per why it was invested over the SCIB1 trial's cycle rather than lozans peddling nonsense bicycle

clutter post again Loz ....

[the real lozan] 02/3/2019 13:20

miavoce et al -
"If they do need to dispose of their SCLP holding"
IS
There any RISK of such "- selling that amount in the open market" being a REALITY ???
Many would HOPE NOT
However, If one is determined NOT to see RISKS...or CLAIM there are NO RISKS...ANYONE believing the CLAIMS that there are "NO RISKS here"... are ill-prepared...IF / WHEN unforseen / DENIED RISKS arise.

[wigwammer] 02/3/2019 12:42

Bermuda/inanaco - many thanks for your useful posts over the last day or so :)

[miavoce] 02/3/2019 12:23

Thanks Bermudashorts. Let's hope therefore that the resolution of City Financial's problems doesn't involve liquidation of all their holdings otherwise that could be very painful indeed for our share price

If they do need to dispose of their SCLP holding lets hope they can find another ii buyer who is willing to take the whole block (at a discount) - selling that amount in the open market doesn't bear thinking about from an share price perspective.

[bermudashorts] 02/3/2019 10:42

Plasbryn - thanks for that (I think!)

miavoce at 31st January 2019 City Financial were still holding 21,287,775 - 5.49%

[miavoce] 02/3/2019 10:23

That is very interesting Plasbryn - makes a change from the running spat going on. Over the last 12 months City Financial have gone from just over $3 bln to just over $1 bln assets under management, so they must have disposed of a lot of stocks over that period and maybe this in some way helps to explain the weakness in the SCLP price.

According to the FT they held 21m Scancell shares as of July 2018. Hopefully if they are offloading they don't have too much further to go.

[the real lozan] 02/3/2019 10:01

P S -
In view of yesterday's CLUTTER regarding FDA approval.. following another initial CLAIM that the 'GO AHEAD' WILL occur on 12th March 2019 ....
Would it not be 'logical' for the WISER, more ASTUTE investor to WAIT and SEE...
IF this CLAIM {12th MARCH 2019} HAS / HAD any substance...or not ???

[plasybryn] 02/3/2019 09:43

City Financial apparently going into Administration and has been dumping various shares including Scancell

[the real lozan] 02/3/2019 09:37

As they say in 'Profitable investing circles' -
* One man's warnings of LOSS making LIES, FALSE CLAIMS, determination to DOMINATE and SILENCE others who present a 'THREAT' to an EGO DRIVEN trHYPE SCAM, by 'Alternative Views' that are REPEATEDLY subsequently PROVEN to be / have been RIGHT...Thus helping to AVOID those said LOSSES ----
Are,
As they say in 'NON profit investing circles' = another man's....CLUTTER

[oldnotwise] 01/3/2019 23:27

Bermuda,
Just had A (Very) quick look at the process and now wonder to what stage the application's actually progressed!
Anyway, will have a further look (thanks for the link) IDC and if anything looks in any way logical I'll maybe post again...
Far too late tonight :-)
Thanks again for the detail; waiting's probably the only practical option, but it would be an interesting intellectual excercise to try to unravel the vagaries..... Maybe...... LOL
ATB

[bermudashorts] 01/3/2019 21:50

ONW

I know it sounds counter-intuitive - placing a hold on a trial that hasn't started. Of course I could easily be wrong but I think that is the usual process - see document below and in particular page 15 - The IND Process and page 16 flow chart.

Whether the correct term is clinical hold, hold or just not allowed to start the long and short of it all seems to be that we are still waiting for Ichor and Scancell are still hopeful of commencing trial in H1. As Inan says - wait RNS or perhaps more appropriate - carry on waiting:)

You have a good weekend too.

[oldnotwise] 01/3/2019 20:46

Bermuda
I see what you're saying, I'm not sure it would be possible to apply a Clinical Hold without first receiving approval of an IND.
And so to the weekend. Have a good one.
AIMO
ATB

[inanaco] 01/3/2019 19:52

well .. CH is scancell ...

so i have no reply ..

so let's leave it at the point of ... ?

wait RNS

[bermudashorts] 01/3/2019 18:22

Right thanks - apologies I missed that. Think CH has focused on the word 'clinical'.

As I understand it, the process is as follows:-

1) Ichor submit master file
2) Scancell submit IND which is cross referenced to master file and it's at this stage that the master file is reviewed in relation to use with SCIB1
3) The IND has been placed on hold primarily due to deficiencies in the master file
4) Deficiencies need to be rectified by Ichor and once that has happened Scancell need to apply to CBER to lift the hold


My understanding is that the IND either is approved or it is placed on hold - there is no other option so am not sure where CH is coming from.

[inanaco] 01/3/2019 17:59

sorry ... bermuda ..

the real lozan1 Mar '19 - 17:48 - 20067 of 20069
0 0 0
BoB - EXACTLY


did not realise that Lozan just needed reassurance

LOL

[inanaco] 01/3/2019 17:54

inanaco1 Mar '19 - 16:56 - 20053 of 20068 Edit
0 0 0
so that refers to the actual question i asked Scancell

I am getting a bit confused with the Status of

The Combination trial and the FDA, are we in a state of "clinical hold" or are these questions asked by the FDA informal ?