Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[bermudashorts] 04/12/2024 09:19

TF

Regarding Redmile, fully diluted they own approx. 445m shares and foremost in their minds will be securing an exit with a decent profit. It's not easy to exit from such a large position and they have a duty to their own clients to weigh up the risk of turning down any offers against the risk of accepting one and missing out on potential future increases in valuations. If Scancell received an offer of £500m then Redmile would bank profit of well over £120m on a total investment which from memory stands at around £45m. Of course it depends very much on the terms of the offer but it's hard to see any fund manager missing the opportunity to secure their exit with that level of return for their clients. So I think Nigel has made a fair point.

Having said all of that, Scancell is primarily a cancer vaccine company and that is where the bulk of their pipeline (and presumably valuation) lies. As Ivy has pointed out, this isn't a good strategic fit for Genmab and whilst I guess an offer for the whole of the Glymab platform is possible, I can't see them being interested in the whole company.

[2tyke] 04/12/2024 08:50

Elon has apparently left inane on the moon...he's sick of him now too 😂

[2tyke] 04/12/2024 08:48

Think you could probably buy your gift much cheaper before long Nigel.

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 08:37

Either way this price is a gift...

[2tyke] 04/12/2024 08:33

SP is doing exactly what it should be.
It is always correct.
You really need to segregate company events from stock price movement.

[ivyspivey] 04/12/2024 08:32

PS yes a poor market reaction and still sellers about

[ivyspivey] 04/12/2024 08:30

Nigel Genmab is purely an Antibody Company so oncology assets like SCIB and Moditope are not a good strategic fit hence imo not a likely candidate to buy SCLP but understand your thinking.

[marcusl2] 04/12/2024 08:28

So now two deals on the Glymabs worth potentially
$1.254 billion plus low single digit royalties.

A very good sign of how impressed Genmab is with the Glymabs.

They recently axed 3 of their own programs.

“After careful consideration, we have decided to terminate the early-stage clinical programs GEN1047, GEN3017 and GEN1056,” van de Winkel said.

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 08:26

Who knows.. we don't have any evidence of commerciality yet....

[torquayfan] 04/12/2024 08:26

Nigel in condescension mode.

Yes but what about the other 4 plaforms ??

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 08:25

Share price reaction even has me surprised. It's not so much the news of the second. More about the likelihood of it validating the October 2022 deal and that must be moving forward now towards milestones of additional payments.

[2tyke] 04/12/2024 08:21

Oh inanaco will be along a bit later....
He's just completing another rocket ride to the moon with Elon... 😂

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 08:20

Also. As I've had to spell this out before it is revenue of now up to 1.2bn dollars in the absolute best case scenario spread over many years. There will be costs involved etc... they won't just be getting 1.2bn. even if there were that would equate to a valuation much lower than 500m. Let's keep our feet on the ground and real eh?

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 08:17

It's a view Torquay. Like others have them.

[torquayfan] 04/12/2024 08:16

Nigel - reasoning again please.

Why is 'north of $500m' hard to see when just two mAbs fetch, all being well, $1.2 billion. From just 1 of 4 platforms.

Tell your Pal at Genmab to offer $ 5 billion ?

IMO NO way Vulpes and Redmile would look at the figure you mooted.

[willoicc] 04/12/2024 08:13

Do you believe it has not been going well so far?

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 08:06

We'll see. I don't see a particularly likely scenario of north of 500m unless everything goes well.

[phoenixs] 04/12/2024 08:04

Nigelpm, whilst you might “bite their hands off” I doubt whether Redmile or Vulpes would sell for that amount. Your valuation only puts an approximate 35-40 share price

[rogerbridge] 04/12/2024 08:01

Good news, let’s hope the share price reacts upwards.

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 08:01

Shareholders in their majority would vote to bite their hand off

[chillpill] 04/12/2024 07:59

I assume that’s another $5m in the tin and another milestone payment from the first license due in a matter of weeks.

[torquayfan] 04/12/2024 07:54

Nigel - a bid for $500m for Scancell itself ? I think that would receive short shrift! What's your reasoning, given Genmab have already committed to agreements for $1.2 billion for the 2 mAbs.

[nigelpm] 04/12/2024 07:45

There comes a point where it would make more sense for Genmab to just bid $500m for Scancell and be done with it - be interesting to see how this all plays out.

[bermudashorts] 04/12/2024 07:41

chilltime

There's the original Genmab deal from 2022 which has the potential to generate a milestone when it enters clinical trials and the mAb which was the subject of the exclusive evaluation agreement for which Scancell have already received $1m. The deal announced today is that second mAb. What is the third obvious one?