Saga Share Discussion Threads

[spotdog40] 19/6/2019 11:44

3rd piece of good news in a row that's been punished by the market.
1 "Marcus" link up SELL
2 Lance Batchelor, who has presided over the poor performance of the company and the share price, has left SELL
3 "Trading for the period is broadly in line with expectations" SELL
I'd imagined that the drop to 40p might have been a signalling a disastrous trading update - so "broadly in line" sounds pretty good to me.
The "chart" says I'll have to pay to get my shares taken away by the end of July. I'm aware of the debt (but there's now £300m less of it that when the company first floated), but there's still enough profit to make today's share price look derisory.

[buywell3] 19/6/2019 11:32

Several idiots posting drivel I note today
SAGA is a share in trouble

It has dropped 55% since buywell gave a heads up on april 4th 2019 on this thread

The chart bottom is not yet in

dyor

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/6/2019 11:29

Posts 2183 and 2295. It's risky and not terribly cheap. Anyway, enough, I'll leave it there.

[knowing] 19/6/2019 11:29

Being lazy but what is the debt figure?

[careful] 19/6/2019 11:28

Pre tax profit of £100m could give x8 = £800m in normal times.
Simplistic but thee are cheap if this profit has the potential to rise.

[gripfit] 19/6/2019 11:27

So what does it equate to ?

[gripfit] 19/6/2019 11:26

And ,,,,,,

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/6/2019 11:25

One more time - it's not market cap you should be looking at, it is enterprise value. And the relative size of equity to forward debt, the two components of that enterprise value.

[dr biotech] 19/6/2019 11:20

For a company that last issued guidance of c£100m...what sort of market cap should it be?

[gripfit] 19/6/2019 11:13

Mkt cap still £365 mill😳㈸3;😳

[gripfit] 19/6/2019 11:11

Keeps bouncing ,,, sucking a few more mug punters in

[hairballradical] 19/6/2019 10:36

Step back into the fray Roger De Haan and buy it back at 25% of what you sold it for.

HBR

[nav_mike] 19/6/2019 10:29

This is where the SETSMM system is grossly skewed

There has been a long stream of sizeable OB trades above 33p which all look like retail buys, then 2 small AT trades come along and the bid is dumped by .5 in no time

I think SAGAs days are numbered....the brand is worth more than this, but I think the insurance and travel arms will be taken out separately, if only for access to the customer book

[dr biotech] 19/6/2019 10:22

Sorry about that skinny. Doesn't always work of course. I am also trying to catch fewer knives as I've lost quite a few fingers that way. I've made 20% on kier over the last couple of days, but that was just a gamble with an SB.

[justiceforthemany] 19/6/2019 10:12

11M shares traded in just 2 hours. 2x daily volume already.
Tracker funds still selling. 2 days left.

[skinny] 19/6/2019 10:06

Dr Biotech - I used that approach recently with IMB (3 days) - rather unsuccessfully!

[dr biotech] 19/6/2019 10:01

I'm still looking at these. My 3 consecutive days without a fall rule hasn't been met though. New ships will add capacity and revenue and its seems that the load factor will be reasonable looking at the forward numbers sold.

I've seen multiple companies now mention Brexit as a reason/excuse for poor performance. How long will it be before we get any say its a reason for better than expected performance? I'm guessing never. But thats a discussion for another board.


Will stay out for now, falling knives and all that. However I think in 12months this current price will have been seen as an opportunity.

[nav_mike] 19/6/2019 09:56

Find it rather incredible that there are supposedly no shorts over 0.5% in this, and hasnt been since April

[edmondj] 19/6/2019 09:51

wskill,

"Saga have run 2 x cruise ships for many years the old vessels were not fuel efficient the new ones are ,with the replacement of these vessels the cruise offering this year will be only a little higher that the past the new ship has been 86% filled this next year to July 2020."

I posted maybe a week ago, the Numis analyst's wariness how "cruise capacity is rising 80%, we have concerns they will be able to fill this", obviously the timescale is crucial to that figure but valuation is forward looking.

Numis were also wary about traction on the insurance side, in a competitive market, until there's more evidence.

The stock has fallen from 40p+ since then and the AGM update broadly affirmed these concerns, in a challenging/competitive UK consumer environment for insurance & travel.

[gregpeck7] 19/6/2019 09:50

L2 switching here IMO. Bounce is coming.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/6/2019 09:50

It is. But I don't understand the mindset of everyone looking for affirmation of their belief in it and its valuation, rather than the more obvious possibility that they just have it wrong, or that they are missing something.

I mentioned last week about the consideration of the enterprise value, i.e. debt + equity, which is £1,000m (going forward, when the new ships are taken on) plus (currently) £300m = £1,300m. That is the value that anyone looking at this, maybe with a view to a takeover, would be considering. The change in equity, while dramatic in headline percentage terms, is not that dramatic in enterprise value terms.

These new ships and their associated debt do not add to profitability. They are simply a renewal of an existing income stream - which now has to be paid for. They have been living off the old ships for a few years without the associated debt and repayment commitments. OK, they may be a little more profitable before debt costs as they are more efficient, but when you add in the debt servicing costs, they are (probably, who knows?) less profitable than the old ships.

And that's without any consideration of the overpriced and declining insurance business.

But, no, I am getting it all wrong, as the responder to last week's post indicted. When the shares were 25% higher.