Saga Share Discussion Threads

[stewart64] 25/6/2019 11:48

I agree re. the cruise ships. You've got a couple on finance costing 0.7 billion by 2020, twice the Market cap. Whether these assets perform or not is fundamental to the solvency of Saga.

[salpara111] 25/6/2019 10:49

Have to say that I thought it had hit the bottom last week.
I guess the biggest risk factor here in the short term will be the performance of the cruise ships......if they perform well in the next couple of years then there can be a strong turnaround.

[diku] 25/6/2019 09:13

If only somebody would ring the bell when to sell...text books are just text books reality is very different with all situations...and as for in hindsight we would all be billionaires....





Investor adage includes "run your profits" and "cut your losses". An investor at launch has had plenty of opportunity to cut their loss or at least minimise it if they had averaged down. Those same investors that have not sold are sitting on a paper loss and tend to give up once the share price has actually bottommed out.

[iaincc] 25/6/2019 09:09

EJ
I was just picking a price point of 18p
At which point I'd stop the kids pocket money for a couple of weeks and snap this up !

[hairballradical] 25/6/2019 00:32

EJ

That's very true, especially on the 90% loss comment. Is there any imminent danger to Saga - no. Is there longer term debt related issues - yes. And throw in the Brexit formula, investors hit the panic button.

Profits can service the debt, a sensible achievable strategy will restore confidence and who knows what a shaken up board can achieve? At low 30s in my mind this is a real bargain.

That's just my opinion and theres a whole spectrum out there to contend with.

HBR

[koetser] 24/6/2019 21:43

From IG:

Saga share price: what’s the outlook as turnaround plans gets underway?
The over 50s insurance and holiday brand is busy executing its turnaround strategy amid a difficult insurance and travel market, providing little support to its share price.

SagaSource: Bloomberg
Insurance Takeover Brand Valuation Retail
Aaran Fronda | Financial writer, London | Monday 24 June 2019 15:36
Saga continues to rely heavily on its insurance business to prop up profits, while the troubling travel market continues to negatively impact its results.

Insurance broking accounted for 59% of the company’s profits in 2018, but even that has taken a hit with Saga struggling to keep customers onboard as increased competition and ease of switching provider making it a challenging market to navigate.

AGM statement sends share price south
In the wake of its AGM statement, which saw Saga warn investors how political uncertainties were weighing on its tour operator business, its share price fell more than 14% to £32.28 on Wednesday last week.

The company used the statement to also mention how ‘despite challenging trading conditions in both insurance and travel markets’ the over 50s insurance and tour operator has seen trading between February 1 to June 18 remain in line with expectations.

‘We are resolutely focused on the execution of our new strategy and have a clear set of priorities,’ Saga CEO Lance Batchelor said.

‘Against challenging headwinds in both travel and insurance, we see early signs of progress in stabilising our Retail Broking business and forward bookings for the Cruise business have been resilient,’ he added.

Saga ‘vulnerable to takeover’ as share price sinks
Saga’s turnaround plan will need to reap results sooner rather than later, with the company’s sliding share price leaving its ‘vulnerable to takeover’, according to AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould in an interview with ThisIsMoney.

‘The company is in a sticky mess and is now reliant on flawless execution to try and put the business back on track,’ he said. ‘The very depressed market valuation leaves Saga vulnerable to takeover interest from rivals.’

‘Despite the recent setbacks its brand still has considerable value and it does have a large customer base which presents opportunities to make money should someone feel brave enough to buy the company while it is on its knees,’ he added.

[diku] 24/6/2019 21:34

Now just imagine if there was no CEO since the IPO...would it have made any difference to the share price?...

[gripfit] 24/6/2019 21:28

No ,, but it’s a good move in the right direction ,,,
I’m happy if they are going to be taking massive stakes in Saga , they must have serious hope

[gripfit] 24/6/2019 21:27

No ,, but it’s a good move in the right direction ,,,
I’m happy if they are going to be taking massive stakes in Saga , they must have serious hope

[zulu_principle] 24/6/2019 21:08

For non-subscribers the full ALNC statement on the Morningstar website reads:

"(Alliance News) - Saga PLC said Monday Pictet Asset Management Ltd built a 5.2% stake in the over-50s services firm following a transaction last Thursday.

Pictet held 57.9 million shares in Saga following the transaction, equivalent to a 5.2% stake in the 1.12 billion shares outstanding in the firm. The holding of Pictet prior to the transaction - if any - was not disclosed.

Shares in Saga closed 6.0% lower at 34.16 pence in London on Monday.

By Ahren Lester; [e-mail]"

According to various sources the Pictet Group is a Swiss multinational private bank and financial services company based in Geneva.

It is one of the largest Swiss banks and primarily offers financial services to private clients and institutions. The group employs around 4,300 people, including 900 investment managers and has a network of 27 offices in financial centres including registered banks in Geneva, Luxembourg, Nassau, Hong Kong and Singapore.

According to their web site they do not engage in investment banking, nor do they extend commercial loans. They had 528Bln Swiss Francs (about £426Bn) of assets under management last year.

Anyone know any more about them?

[iaincc] 24/6/2019 19:11

EJ
You missed it going private at 1/10th of the float price

[nav_mike] 24/6/2019 16:05

Another afternoon sell off....wonder if its US related from people still peeved about the Carnival numbers?

Standard Life continue to sell out, albeit rather slowly and we have a new significant holder appearing with 5% plus

[hairballradical] 24/6/2019 12:57

Bargainbob,

Disagree. The market also likes uncertainty. You and others might like certainty but there isnt a lot of profit in that.

[bargainbob] 24/6/2019 12:40

the market likes certainty . Not a saga

[buywell3] 24/6/2019 10:56

The chart drift downwards continues

The Market does not like SAGA

[countless] 24/6/2019 09:24

With the Mail on Sunday came a broucher for Spirit Of Discovery. Very impressed. Chauffeur service to the port to five star accommodation.

[edmondj] 23/6/2019 13:38

Cheers! ;-)

[kenmitch] 23/6/2019 13:15

EdmondJ.

Much of what I was going to post ended up on the previous post.

e.g no way are modern cruise ships bog standard.

And the 2 new Saga ships are medium size and will look tiny if moored alongside a giant cruise ship.

I agree that Saga’s own advertising film makes them look bigger than they are.

One way you could think about finding out more would be to offer your services as a guest speaker. You are well qualified to do it. Guest speakers range from famous (e.g Television personalities, Concorde pilots, famous authors and politicians to very ordinary unknowns. Many famous guest speakers do repeat trips because they enjoy cruising so much.

e.g on our last cruise on Cunard a brilliant guest speaker was David Morgan Hewitt, the Managing Director of the Royal’s favourite Goring Hotel. He loves his food and loves Cunard food too, which gives you an indication of it’s quality! He is larger than life and apparently a friend of the Queen, who when introduced to his equally ginormous brother, the Queen said to him “Are you all that shape?”

See photo of him with the Queen here:-

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2347034/hotel-manager-escorts-queen-away-dinner-intruder-bursts/‘


And this link for 100 page brochure showing off Saga’s first new ship.

Turn the pages and see for yourselves how luxurious it all looks!

[kenmitch] 23/6/2019 12:53

Before replying to EdmondJ in a separate post, and reading the comments here, it’s perhaps worth posting a bit of basic info aboout the cruise industry.

And before that, again, turning round Saga’s insurance business and their non cruise travel business is essential if my confidence about Saga being a great recovery share is gong to be proved right. Their now very promising cruise business is the icing on the cake.

Fact is Saga was floated at far too high a price,and has since been appallingly managed too. It’s quite an “achievement” to lose the trust of previously so loyal customers and members first by persuading them (e.g in Saga Magazine)that the shares were worth buying and they were anything but, and then doubling up by ripping off their trusting insurance customers with way over the top annual price increases. OK That was an industry wide disgraceful business model but Saga shouldn’t have joined in! BUT that was in the past and stock markets look forward and imo a lot of bad news is now priced in to the Saga share price, and even modest improvement isn’t.

Anyway to cruises.

First, and before anyone thinks who is this self acclaimed cruise expert. I’m not beyond experience of cruising with 3 Cruise Companies - Cunard, Fred Olsen and Saga. AND reading and owning the cruiser’s “bible” the brilliant Berlitz Guide to Cuising and Cruise Ships written by Douglas Ward (who has apparently done the Atlantic crossing to New York alone over 160 times!) That book gives incredible detail on every cruise ship on the market, right down to which cabins to avoid and why, and gives marks out of 500 for every ship. And the detail on cruising itself is extraordinary. It’s £20 BUT the 2018 edition is currently on sale at Bookworld (forgotten correct name!) at £5 IF they haven’t all been snapped up by regular cruisers.

1. SHIPS. Boutique. 50-250 passengers

Small 251 - 750

Medium size 751 - 2500. So at 999 passengers the two new Saga ships are NOT as Saga describe them “Boutique̶1; but bottom end of the medium.

Large Resort Ships (and you’re welcome to them) 2501 - 6500.

Ships last for up to 50 years. e.g Cunard Flagship QE from 1967 - 2004. Queen Mary 2004 is now their flagship.

2. FARES. These vary enormously from cheapest “Cruise Maritime” to luxury lines like Seabourn. Saga fares for their 2 new ships are in the middle. More expensive than similar quality Cunard ((Queen Mary and Elizabeth and Victoria) but far cheaper than Seabourn.

Re discounting. Brochure fares are like RRP or list price for a car. Very few will pay the list price so current 30% off the brochure price is nothing to be too concerned about imo. Saga know what prices they hope to get and will budget accordingly, but it will not be the brochure price.

14 day cruise to Canary Islands this November on new ship.

SAGA balcony price currently starts from £2999.

CUNARD balcony price starts at just £1100. But Saga include tips and all drinks and often travel to the port as well.

One incredibly cheap current offer is World Cruise on Cruise Maritime’s Marco Polo from £8800. That for a 110 day cruise with all food and entertainment included. BUT that ship is 53 years old!

I think Saga’s 2 new ships are sensational, but will include why in the next post. They could AND MUST attract a lot of new customers not currently sailing with SAGA.

3. CRUISERS.

We holiday independently most of the time, but go on a cruise at least once a year, as it’s so relaxing and with everything done for you. Service standards are very good. BUT we’re amazed at how few fellow cruisers have the confidence to do anything for themselves. So they even pay £50 or more to go on a guided walking tour even of a tiny village like Flam in Norway, instead of checking out beforehand places of interest and then checking out at the local tourist office on the day. So cruise companies cash in on this with extortionate fares for coach trips.

And it’s strange how so many want to pay heavily to visit a castle or whatever but have no interest in visiting places of far greater interest in the town itself and perhaps buying a coffee or glass of wine there and watch the world go by.

Finally...just in case anyone reading this is also used to travelling independently. NEVER be late back to the ship. It will NOT wait for you as Alan Johnson (Labour politician) learned the hard way on a Cunard ship where he was a guest speaker. They left him behind!

[gripfit] 23/6/2019 11:14

diku ,, I agree , somebody will want this to tag onto their existing business,,,
watch this space.......

[diku] 23/6/2019 10:55

Still think this will get taken out within 12 - 18 months...better served under a bigger umbrella...get rid of access head quarters/admin costs...and the insiders wage bill...