Saga (SAGA) Share Price

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Stock Name	Stock Symbol	Market	Stock Type	Stock ISIN	Stock Description
Saga	SAGA	London	Ordinary Share	GB00BLT1Y088	ORD 1P

	Price Change	Price Change %	Stock Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Close Price	Last Trade
	1.12	2.64%	43.56	45.36	41.24	42.10	42.44	16:35:15

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Industry Sector
LIFE INSURANCE

Saga SAGA Dividends History

Announcement Date	Type	Currency	Dividend Amount	Period Start	Period End	Ex Date	Record Date	Payment Date	Total Dividend Amount
04/04/2019	Final	GBX	1	31/01/2018	31/01/2019	16/05/2019	17/05/2019	28/06/2019	4
27/09/2018	Interim	GBX	3	31/01/2018	31/07/2018	18/10/2018	19/10/2018	23/11/2018	0
12/04/2018	Final	GBX	6	31/01/2017	31/01/2018	17/05/2018	18/05/2018	29/06/2018	9
22/09/2017	Interim	GBX	3	31/01/2017	31/07/2017	12/10/2017	13/10/2017	17/11/2017	0
29/03/2017	Final	GBX	5.8	31/01/2016	31/01/2017	11/05/2017	12/05/2017	30/06/2017	8.5
22/09/2016	Interim	GBX	2.7	31/01/2016	31/07/2016	06/10/2016	07/10/2016	18/11/2016	0
19/04/2016	Final	GBX	5	31/01/2015	31/01/2016	12/05/2016	13/05/2016	30/06/2016	7.2
30/09/2015	Interim	GBX	2.2	31/01/2015	31/07/2015	08/10/2015	09/10/2015	19/11/2015	0
30/04/2015	Final	GBX	4.1	31/01/2014	31/01/2015	04/06/2015	05/06/2015	30/06/2015	4.1

Date	Subject
14/7/2019 22:00	koetser: https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/07/14/could-the-saga-share-price-double-from-current-levels/ The Motley Fool LATEST SHARE TIPS INVESTING Over the past 12 months, the Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price has been a pretty poor investment. Excluding dividends, the stock has declined around 68% since the beginning of July last year, compared to a decline of just 2% for the FTSE 100. However, during the past two weeks, Saga has staged a slight come back. After printing an all-time low of 33p in mid-June, the stock has since rebounded by more than 20% and is currently dealing for just under 40p per share. I think there’s a good chance this rally could continue, and eventually take the stock back up to where it was at the beginning of this year, above 100p, although that’s a long term target. In the near term, I think a more conservative goal of 60p-80p might be more accomplishable. It all comes down to valuation Over the past 12 months, as Saga has issued a string of dire trading updates, confidence in the business has evaporated. As a result, even though City analysts expect the company to report earnings of 7.5p share for its current financial year, the market doesn’t seem to trust this forecast. A stock’s valuation gives us a lot of insight into what the market thinks about a company and Saga’s P/E of just 5.3 seems to suggest investors have almost no confidence in the business and its management. I’m not willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt just yet, but I do think there are some signs management’s efforts to stabilise the business are starting to work. As I noted the last time I covered the company, Saga’s insurance business, which has been the group’s problem child for the past two years, seems to be on the road to recovery. Meanwhile, there appears to be a robust demand from travellers for Saga’s new cruise offering. Granted, the company isn’t out of the woods just yet, but management seems to think the business has stabilised. If this trend continues throughout the rest of the year, I think there’s a good chance the market could re-rate the stock as Saga’s outlook improves, and its future becomes easier to determine. The market dislikes uncertainty more than anything else, and the Saga share price has been shrouded in uncertainty for much of the past two years. If the company continues to report positive trading, the shroud of uncertainty should lift, and investors are likely to return. Double in value As confidence in the business returns, I think the Saga share price could double in value. Historically, the stock has traded at a P/E of between 8 and 15, substantially above where it is today. I reckon even a modest improvement in the group’s fortunes could justify a P/E ratio in the high-single to low-double-digit range, giving a potential upside of 100% or more for investors who are willing to take the risk today. On top of this, the stock also supports a dividend yield of 10% at the time of writing. So, if your’e looking for a company that has the potential to double your money, it might be worth taking a closer look at the Saga share price. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
03/7/2019 22:21	erogenous jones: spotdog40..... FWIW, I concur that there does not (at this stage) appear to be much value for those who are selling short. BUT, there are investment companies that seem to specialise in such activity and, for the most part tend to do quite well. Of course, timing plays a critical role as well as a thorough understanding of the business model, the vertical market and, of course, the managers. So.... let's try and put a little perspective on matters. The float was successful. It transferred cash to the original owners, by investors, who for the most part were either looking after funds contributed by and for the benefit of the "silver brigade" or those that managed their own investment who, I wager are those very persons/insured parties that SAGA themselves would target. And why not participate in the ownership of a business dealing in a stable, wealthy, loyal and, I suggest, idle market. I use the word idle as the modern 50+ person tends to be internet savvy and quite able to cross-quote and if necessary, change allegiance. It could be Supermarkets one day, banks the next, mobile telephony, credit card, car dealer or, of course, insurer. Also, quite prepared to make extensive search online for a "deal" when it comes to leisure. However, these same people are not really prepared to quite go the whole hog to organise the individual components themselves to shave another 10% off the price and prefer either the middleman comparison site or book direct to take advantage of bulk purchasing power. Anyway..... the maximum that those selling short can achieve is around 38p and that assumes that the company has neither enterprise value nor any other value whatsoever. My counter to this and which has permitted me to begin to buy shares in SAGA is that the company has been trading publically for a couple of years and the accounts demonstrate the truth as far as 2018 is concerned. The managers in reaching this point have shown themselves to be at best average and Mr Batchelor has been kicked out. All the bad news from 2018 is in the open and guidence for 2019 published very recently. This guidence states that the business is profitable to the tune of £100m on current turnover. There is confidence to invest in new ships (think of this as land and buildings) which have a long life, finite capacity and pretty static operating margins. Whether we like it or not, we are in an age of communication and it coincides for the SAGA target market, a time of leisure AND, for many the participation in fear of missing out (FOMO). This superficial appetite to describe every drab minute of life to others and allow them to "share" in the "experience" through the constant tedium of Social Media will and does encourage others to want to be part of this way of living. Now, I don't give a hoot about the people that are the target market, and my interest in SAGA is limited to the insurance on 1 or 5 motorcycles and the shares I have bought in the market recently. We are building a base at the moment to consolidate the past and prepare for the future. There will be those that feel the company will fail and sell short but others that sense recovery. Over the next year share price recovery to that at launch is unlikely and to peak level about nil. A highly optimistic price of 100p might be seen, but realistically 60p is my target. Sorry if this is even longer than other musings, but am just trying to put my optimism in a way that might resonate with new investors rather than old lags (like myself) and temper enthusiasm to bung only what can afford to be discarded into a company that has been poorly managed, has alienated its core clientele. Think of this as a supertanker that has been chugging along at 12 knots and the managers have had a look under the decks.... they have chucked out the nasty, oily and inefficient part and have concentrated on the presentation of the "brand". Well, the nasty, oily and inefficient part was the engine, but on a supertanker it will go on for a couple of years and lose little momentum..... changing course and stopping become more difficult without power, as does gaining momentum. The new ship investment marks the point where power is stepped up, but what is needed now is investment in a new board to beef up some elements and eliminate waste. We are at that point now IMO. I will be ready to commit more cash once the next CEO has been announced and in place. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
25/6/2019 22:38	koetser: Could the Saga share price be the bargain of the year? G A Chester \| Tuesday, 25th June, 2019 \| More on: G4M SAGA Question mark made up of pound symbols Image source: Getty Images. The Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price has been hitting new lows this year, as investors have deserted the over-50s financial services and travel group in droves. There’s been a similar exodus at online retailer of musical instruments and music equipment Gear4music (LSE: G4M). Here, I’ll discuss their turnaround prospects and give my view on whether they’re now bargains of the year, or stocks to avoid like the plague. Back to heritage Floated on the stock market at 185p in 2014, Saga has slumped over the last 18 months to little more than 33p (market-cap £370m). It was formally demoted from the mid-cap FTSE 250 index to the FTSE SmallCap index yesterday. The key to Saga’s future success rests on overcoming the challenges it faces from the commoditisation of the markets in which it operates, especially in insurance. Outgoing chief executive Lance Batchelor set out a fundamental change to the group’s strategy earlier this year: “To return the whole business to its heritage as an organisation that offers differentiated products and services.” I think this is the right approach. It is, of course, early days. But there were encouraging signs of progress in the company’s trading update at last week’s AGM, where management also confirmed the company was trading “broadly in line with expectations.” City consensus forecasts put the stock on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.4 with a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%. This looks good value to me for a potentially high-reward turnaround proposition. And because the stock is so cheap, I also see potential for a bid from private equity or for activist investors to come in and push for a break-up of the group. I think this may limit further downside for the shares. As such, I’m inclined to rate Saga a ‘buy’ at the current level. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
24/6/2019 21:43	koetser: From IG: Saga share price: what’s the outlook as turnaround plans gets underway? The over 50s insurance and holiday brand is busy executing its turnaround strategy amid a difficult insurance and travel market, providing little support to its share price. SagaSource: Bloomberg Insurance Takeover Brand Valuation Retail Aaran Fronda \| Financial writer, London \| Monday 24 June 2019 15:36 Saga continues to rely heavily on its insurance business to prop up profits, while the troubling travel market continues to negatively impact its results. Insurance broking accounted for 59% of the company’s profits in 2018, but even that has taken a hit with Saga struggling to keep customers onboard as increased competition and ease of switching provider making it a challenging market to navigate. AGM statement sends share price south In the wake of its AGM statement, which saw Saga warn investors how political uncertainties were weighing on its tour operator business, its share price fell more than 14% to £32.28 on Wednesday last week. The company used the statement to also mention how ‘despite challenging trading conditions in both insurance and travel markets’ the over 50s insurance and tour operator has seen trading between February 1 to June 18 remain in line with expectations. ‘We are resolutely focused on the execution of our new strategy and have a clear set of priorities,’ Saga CEO Lance Batchelor said. ‘Against challenging headwinds in both travel and insurance, we see early signs of progress in stabilising our Retail Broking business and forward bookings for the Cruise business have been resilient,’ he added. Saga ‘vulnerable to takeover’ as share price sinks Saga’s turnaround plan will need to reap results sooner rather than later, with the company’s sliding share price leaving its ‘vulnerable to takeover’, according to AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould in an interview with ThisIsMoney. ‘The company is in a sticky mess and is now reliant on flawless execution to try and put the business back on track,’ he said. ‘The very depressed market valuation leaves Saga vulnerable to takeover interest from rivals.’ ‘Despite the recent setbacks its brand still has considerable value and it does have a large customer base which presents opportunities to make money should someone feel brave enough to buy the company while it is on its knees,’ he added. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
23/6/2019 12:53	kenmitch: Before replying to EdmondJ in a separate post, and reading the comments here, it’s perhaps worth posting a bit of basic info aboout the cruise industry. And before that, again, turning round Saga’s insurance business and their non cruise travel business is essential if my confidence about Saga being a great recovery share is gong to be proved right. Their now very promising cruise business is the icing on the cake. Fact is Saga was floated at far too high a price,and has since been appallingly managed too. It’s quite an “achievement” to lose the trust of previously so loyal customers and members first by persuading them (e.g in Saga Magazine)that the shares were worth buying and they were anything but, and then doubling up by ripping off their trusting insurance customers with way over the top annual price increases. OK That was an industry wide disgraceful business model but Saga shouldn’t have joined in! BUT that was in the past and stock markets look forward and imo a lot of bad news is now priced in to the Saga share price, and even modest improvement isn’t. Anyway to cruises. First, and before anyone thinks who is this self acclaimed cruise expert. I’m not beyond experience of cruising with 3 Cruise Companies - Cunard, Fred Olsen and Saga. AND reading and owning the cruiser’s “bible” the brilliant Berlitz Guide to Cuising and Cruise Ships written by Douglas Ward (who has apparently done the Atlantic crossing to New York alone over 160 times!) That book gives incredible detail on every cruise ship on the market, right down to which cabins to avoid and why, and gives marks out of 500 for every ship. And the detail on cruising itself is extraordinary. It’s £20 BUT the 2018 edition is currently on sale at Bookworld (forgotten correct name!) at £5 IF they haven’t all been snapped up by regular cruisers. 1. SHIPS. Boutique. 50-250 passengers Small 251 - 750 Medium size 751 - 2500. So at 999 passengers the two new Saga ships are NOT as Saga describe them “Boutique̶1; but bottom end of the medium. Large Resort Ships (and you’re welcome to them) 2501 - 6500. Ships last for up to 50 years. e.g Cunard Flagship QE from 1967 - 2004. Queen Mary 2004 is now their flagship. 2. FARES. These vary enormously from cheapest “Cruise Maritime” to luxury lines like Seabourn. Saga fares for their 2 new ships are in the middle. More expensive than similar quality Cunard ((Queen Mary and Elizabeth and Victoria) but far cheaper than Seabourn. Re discounting. Brochure fares are like RRP or list price for a car. Very few will pay the list price so current 30% off the brochure price is nothing to be too concerned about imo. Saga know what prices they hope to get and will budget accordingly, but it will not be the brochure price. 14 day cruise to Canary Islands this November on new ship. SAGA balcony price currently starts from £2999. CUNARD balcony price starts at just £1100. But Saga include tips and all drinks and often travel to the port as well. One incredibly cheap current offer is World Cruise on Cruise Maritime’s Marco Polo from £8800. That for a 110 day cruise with all food and entertainment included. BUT that ship is 53 years old! I think Saga’s 2 new ships are sensational, but will include why in the next post. They could AND MUST attract a lot of new customers not currently sailing with SAGA. 3. CRUISERS. We holiday independently most of the time, but go on a cruise at least once a year, as it’s so relaxing and with everything done for you. Service standards are very good. BUT we’re amazed at how few fellow cruisers have the confidence to do anything for themselves. So they even pay £50 or more to go on a guided walking tour even of a tiny village like Flam in Norway, instead of checking out beforehand places of interest and then checking out at the local tourist office on the day. So cruise companies cash in on this with extortionate fares for coach trips. And it’s strange how so many want to pay heavily to visit a castle or whatever but have no interest in visiting places of far greater interest in the town itself and perhaps buying a coffee or glass of wine there and watch the world go by. Finally...just in case anyone reading this is also used to travelling independently. NEVER be late back to the ship. It will NOT wait for you as Alan Johnson (Labour politician) learned the hard way on a Cunard ship where he was a guest speaker. They left him behind! Read Full Thread Follow Reply
19/6/2019 11:58	shinnas: The last time I covered the Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price, I concluded it might be best to give the firm a wide berth for the next two years. That would give us time to see if management’s turnaround plan yielded results. Since my last article on 6th April, shares in the business have fallen a further 44%, excluding dividends. So it looks as if this was the right advice. However, today’s trading update seems to suggest Saga is making headway in dealing with the primary issues affecting the business. I think there’s a good chance this could mark the start of the firm’s turnaround. Positive update Ahead of its annual general meeting, Saga’s trading update for the period from 1 February to 18 June, claims the group is “making progress in the implementation of the strategy announced in April.” And despite challenging conditions, “trading for the period is broadly in line with expectations.” Most importantly, Saga’s insurance business, which has been the group’s problem child for the past two years, seems to have stabilised. The volume of direct home and motor policies the company sold during the first few months of 2019 “are running well above the run rate level in the second half of the 2018/19 financial year,” the statement notes. Also, an improvement in retentions means the number of core Saga-branded home and motor policies in force at the end of May “were flat at 564k.” This is hardly a transformative turnaround, but at least the business has stopped shrinking, and that’s something. Unfortunately, Saga’s travel business is still shrinking. According to the update, booked revenues were down 4% for the full year as of 15 June compared to the same period last year. That said, the firm’s new cruise business is proving to be “more resilient” with bookings “in line” with management forecasts for the year. During the second half of 2019, management is planning a “significant step up in marketing activities” for this business to “coincide with the launch of the Spirit of Discovery,” its new cruise vessel. Summing up today’s update, outgoing CEO Lance Batchelor said: “Against challenging headwinds in both travel and insurance, we see early signs of progress in stabilising our retail broking business and forward bookings for the cruise business have been resilient.“ What’s next? Overall, I think today’s update from Saga is broadly positive. While the company is still fighting fires across the business, it’s encouraging that things haven’t gotten any worse since April. That’s not to say that the group is entirely out of the woods just yet. City analysts believe the firm’s profits will decline by around 37% this year (compared to fiscal 2018), and I don’t see this outlook changing following today’s update. Nevertheless, I’m cautiously optimistic Saga has turned the corner, and its new business plan is starting to yield results. If the company can keep this up for the rest of the year, it might be worth considering the stock for your portfolio. Based on current City projections, the stock is trading at a bargain valuation of just 4.5 times forward earnings compared to the market average of 12.7. That implies if growth returns, the Saga share price could double from current levels. Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Motley Fool UK 2019 Read Full Thread Follow Reply
19/6/2019 11:48	edmondj: Saga PLC (SAGA:LSE): Last: 32.74, down 4.86 (-12.93%), High: 36.10, Low: 31.78, Volume: 14.10m 11:28 am BE Okay, so it's a sharp fall on not much really. 11:28 am BE FY "broadly" in line 11:28 am BE You already know "broadly" means "not", but it's at most a guide towards the lower end of the range. 11:29 am BE Based on travel. Outlook says "ooh, Brexit" mostly. 11:29 am BE So we get a £3m operating loss at cruises, which tilts the company towards a reliance on a second half improvement that might not appear ..... 11:30 am BE .... and we also get some talk of competition around insurance 11:30 am BE To remind, Saga rejigged insurance sales in April to focus on direct and stop shoving inventory through price comparison sites. 11:31 am BE (Is "inventory" the right word for insurance? You know what I mean.) 11:31 am BE That's led to travel and pet insurance and stuff like that falling off, while home and motor seem to be stabilising. The result is a headline 8% fall in policies, but a lot of churn. 11:32 am BE Forecasts aren't really changing and there's nothing new on strategy, so the share price fall looks to be on the increased risk of H2 not coming through .... 11:33 am BE .... and with the cruise ship peak debt thing happening over the next few years, that amplifies equity moves. 11:34 am BE Here's Peel Hunt. 11:34 am BE Saga states trading is broadly in line with expectations in the quarter as it rolls out its new ‘back to basics’ affinity broking strategy. There are no changes to downgraded 2019/20 targets outlined at the full-year results. Insurance broking is seeing some momentum as new products are rolled out across the core Motor & Home book and Cruise bookings are resilient. There is some weakness in the small Tour operations, but the main catalyst is Cruises and the success of the new ship launch in July. It is still early days, the shares remain undervalued (P/E 5x 2019E), whilst the search for a new CEO has already kicked off. 11:34 am BE The core Saga-branded Motor & Home policies were flat yoy (564k), helped by slightly improved retention rates as the company rolls out its new three-year fixed policies. As of mid-June, 60k of three-year fixed policies have been sold, of which half is new business and in line with Saga’s assumptions. There is however weakness in Motorbike & Travel insurance, driving overall policy volumes down 6% for the period to 753k as Saga prioritises rate over volume. The gross margins for the Motor & Home broking are in line with the target range, suggesting broker margin pressure is in line with expectations. The Travel business is mixed, with the Tour operations (a modest contributor to revenue and earnings) seeing revenue pressure driven by discounting (revenues -4% slightly below -3% expectations in April). However, Cruise booking are proving to be resilient. Around 86% of targeted bookings for 2019/20 departures have been made for the first new cruise ship Spirit of Discovery, whilst forward bookings for 2020/21 are broadly on track (31% for the two new ships). Cruise will make a small loss in 1H 19 (£3m), in line with the business plan, as the new ship is launched and the old one decommissioned. Finally, the membership scheme (1.1m members) is seeing growing engagement (+15% in the past two months to 208k), which suggests the new marketing campaigns are starting to have an impact. This is very much core to Saga’s strategy in our view, with membership engagement the key driver for improving the revenue base. Whilst it is still early days since the April profit warning, there seems to be some improved momentum in the business and the next catalyst will be the success of the launch of the new ship in July, with each new vessel targeted to contribute an annual £40m of EBITDA in the coming years, materially reducing Saga’s reliance on the insurance broking business. 11:35 am BE And JPMorgan. 11:36 am BE Trading overall seen as "broadly in line". Saga states that it is making progress against the strategy outlined in early April, with Insurance delivering in line with expectation. Saga states that it has seen an uptick in the proportion of new business sold direct (60%) vs. (50% for FY19), with over half of new direct customers opting for the new 3-year fix product. Travel has been more difficult, with political uncertainty resulting in a very competitive market backdrop. 11:37 am BE Insurance delivering in line with new plans. Saga states that its gross margins per policy in Home and Motor are in line with the target range [£71-74], and claims trends in the underwriter are in line with expectations. 60,000 3-year fix products have now been sold [c11% of Home/Motor policies], of which 30,000 relate to new business. Saga states that the new strategy continues to be rolled out on a test-and-learn basis. 11:38 am BE Travel seeing increasingly competitive conditions. Saga states that its Tour Operations in particular have seen pressure, with booked revenue for the FY down 4% YoY and competitive discounting having an impact on margins. Cruise bookings have been more resilient, with bookings for FY20/21 described as “broadly on track". A significant step up in marketing activities is expected in the next few months to coincide with the launch of the first new cruise ship. Saga also states that Cruise will contribute an operating loss of £3m in H1 (in line with plans), which we believe will overall result in a slight second half weighting to group PBT. 11:38 am BE And Numis. 11:38 am BE Trading is described as broadly in line with expectations, with good early progress from newly launched insurance products and cruise bookings broadly in line with targets. The tours business is seeing challenging conditions although this is relatively small in the group context. The key motor and home insurance businesses appear to be trading in line with rebased targets set out at the finals in April. There is no comment on expected group profit for the year so we feel comfortable Saga remains on track for an outcome within the previous target range of £105-120m, albeit the worsening in tours probably means it is now more likely profit will be towards the lower end of the range. At the bottom end of the guidance range the shares currently trade on a P/E of 4.7x and a yield of 10.9% (based guidance payout of around 50%). 11:39 am 11:40 am https://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2019-06-19/ Read Full Thread Follow Reply
13/6/2019 14:24	edmondj: Blame deflection ahead of the AGM: The chairman of Saga has criticised the way the over-50s insurer and cruises group was floated five years ago, accusing its private equity owners and bankers of “over-egging” its potential. Patrick O’Sullivan explicitly attacked Charterhouse, CVC and Permira, as well as their bank advisers led by Citigroup, yesterday as he announced the departure of Lance Batchelor, his chief executive, by mutual agreement. The £2.1 billion Saga flotation in 2014 has soured into one of the biggest disasters of popular capitalism of recent years, with 200,000 private investors, most of them Saga customers, losing three quarters of their money as the share price plunged. Unlike institutional investors, who shunned the share issue, small investors flocked to buy into the company, attracted by its familiar name and its claim that the brand could be extended into areas such as domiciliary care and wealth management. “There’s no question they [the private equity firms and banks] oversold it at the time of the IPO,” Mr O’Sullivan told The Times. “They over-egged the potential of the business. “There was virtually no investment in the brand,” he said, and “no certainty” that the group was capable of selling lots of other products to its over-50s demographic, as it proposed to do. The three private equity groups sold new shares in Saga at 185p in the float in May 2014 and then baled out in three massive block trades priced at between 195p and 200p in 2015 and 2016. The shares have since dived, falling another 1¾p, or 4.7 per cent, yesterday to close at just over 38p. The same three private equity groups floated the AA roadside rescue group a few months later, with similar disastrous consequences: its shares are now at 52¾p, a decrease of almost 80 per cent from the 250p issue price. CVC also was behind the flotation of Debenhams, which failed in April this year, wiping out shareholders. It is now in the throes of a rescue. A source close to one of the private equity groups dismissed the criticism. “It’s very convenient for the chairman to be blaming the owners of more than five years ago for difficulties that only surfaced more recently.” He pointed out that in its first years, Saga shares had risen above the issue price. Mr O’Sullivan, who took over as chairman last May and has brought in fresh blood to the boardroom, said that the decision for Mr Batchelor to go was mutual: “[We decided] a managed separation was the right way to go.” Read Full Thread Follow Reply
12/6/2019 13:03	spotdog40: I'd thought 40p was the bottom for this,and now it's gone well below after what might be seen as 2 pieces of good news. I got attracted to the yield, and the oversold chart. The company has problems, but there are some profitable components in here, and if all else fails, then value might be realised by a takeover or breakup. I'm back in profit with PETS which was another load it with debt and sell it at a fancy price IPO. With PETS, the stores needed to pay for an expanding veterinary chain which will eventually make a good profit- meanwhile still paying a stupidly high dividend. With SAGA the plan was probably to use the insurance profits to develop the cruise business- whilst also maintaining a high dividend. This is not a loss making company - a goodwill write down is not real money.It has debts, but much less than when it was brought to the market with an unrealistic valuation, and the CEO that has presided over the falling share price has now left. Surely a buy at these levels if you don't just look at the charts? Read Full Thread Follow Reply
06/6/2019 15:39	boraki: HTTPS://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/saga-SAGA/share-news/SAGA-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/80081492 Reduced their holdings by about 1% Read Full Thread Follow Reply

Date

Subject

14/7/2019
22:00

koetser: https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/07/14/could-the-saga-share-price-double-from-current-levels/ The Motley Fool LATEST SHARE TIPS INVESTING Over the past 12 months, the Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price has been a pretty poor investment. Excluding dividends, the stock has declined around 68% since the beginning of July last year, compared to a decline of just 2% for the FTSE 100. However, during the past two weeks, Saga has staged a slight come back. After printing an all-time low of 33p in mid-June, the stock has since rebounded by more than 20% and is currently dealing for just under 40p per share. I think there’s a good chance this rally could continue, and eventually take the stock back up to where it was at the beginning of this year, above 100p, although that’s a long term target. In the near term, I think a more conservative goal of 60p-80p might be more accomplishable. It all comes down to valuation Over the past 12 months, as Saga has issued a string of dire trading updates, confidence in the business has evaporated. As a result, even though City analysts expect the company to report earnings of 7.5p share for its current financial year, the market doesn’t seem to trust this forecast. A stock’s valuation gives us a lot of insight into what the market thinks about a company and Saga’s P/E of just 5.3 seems to suggest investors have almost no confidence in the business and its management. I’m not willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt just yet, but I do think there are some signs management’s efforts to stabilise the business are starting to work. As I noted the last time I covered the company, Saga’s insurance business, which has been the group’s problem child for the past two years, seems to be on the road to recovery. Meanwhile, there appears to be a robust demand from travellers for Saga’s new cruise offering. Granted, the company isn’t out of the woods just yet, but management seems to think the business has stabilised. If this trend continues throughout the rest of the year, I think there’s a good chance the market could re-rate the stock as Saga’s outlook improves, and its future becomes easier to determine. The market dislikes uncertainty more than anything else, and the Saga share price has been shrouded in uncertainty for much of the past two years. If the company continues to report positive trading, the shroud of uncertainty should lift, and investors are likely to return. Double in value As confidence in the business returns, I think the Saga share price could double in value. Historically, the stock has traded at a P/E of between 8 and 15, substantially above where it is today. I reckon even a modest improvement in the group’s fortunes could justify a P/E ratio in the high-single to low-double-digit range, giving a potential upside of 100% or more for investors who are willing to take the risk today. On top of this, the stock also supports a dividend yield of 10% at the time of writing. So, if your’e looking for a company that has the potential to double your money, it might be worth taking a closer look at the Saga share price.

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03/7/2019
22:21

erogenous jones: spotdog40..... FWIW, I concur that there does not (at this stage) appear to be much value for those who are selling short. BUT, there are investment companies that seem to specialise in such activity and, for the most part tend to do quite well. Of course, timing plays a critical role as well as a thorough understanding of the business model, the vertical market and, of course, the managers. So.... let's try and put a little perspective on matters. The float was successful. It transferred cash to the original owners, by investors, who for the most part were either looking after funds contributed by and for the benefit of the "silver brigade" or those that managed their own investment who, I wager are those very persons/insured parties that SAGA themselves would target. And why not participate in the ownership of a business dealing in a stable, wealthy, loyal and, I suggest, idle market. I use the word idle as the modern 50+ person tends to be internet savvy and quite able to cross-quote and if necessary, change allegiance. It could be Supermarkets one day, banks the next, mobile telephony, credit card, car dealer or, of course, insurer. Also, quite prepared to make extensive search online for a "deal" when it comes to leisure. However, these same people are not really prepared to quite go the whole hog to organise the individual components themselves to shave another 10% off the price and prefer either the middleman comparison site or book direct to take advantage of bulk purchasing power. Anyway..... the maximum that those selling short can achieve is around 38p and that assumes that the company has neither enterprise value nor any other value whatsoever. My counter to this and which has permitted me to begin to buy shares in SAGA is that the company has been trading publically for a couple of years and the accounts demonstrate the truth as far as 2018 is concerned. The managers in reaching this point have shown themselves to be at best average and Mr Batchelor has been kicked out. All the bad news from 2018 is in the open and guidence for 2019 published very recently. This guidence states that the business is profitable to the tune of £100m on current turnover. There is confidence to invest in new ships (think of this as land and buildings) which have a long life, finite capacity and pretty static operating margins. Whether we like it or not, we are in an age of communication and it coincides for the SAGA target market, a time of leisure AND, for many the participation in fear of missing out (FOMO). This superficial appetite to describe every drab minute of life to others and allow them to "share" in the "experience" through the constant tedium of Social Media will and does encourage others to want to be part of this way of living. Now, I don't give a hoot about the people that are the target market, and my interest in SAGA is limited to the insurance on 1 or 5 motorcycles and the shares I have bought in the market recently. We are building a base at the moment to consolidate the past and prepare for the future. There will be those that feel the company will fail and sell short but others that sense recovery. Over the next year share price recovery to that at launch is unlikely and to peak level about nil. A highly optimistic price of 100p might be seen, but realistically 60p is my target. Sorry if this is even longer than other musings, but am just trying to put my optimism in a way that might resonate with new investors rather than old lags (like myself) and temper enthusiasm to bung only what can afford to be discarded into a company that has been poorly managed, has alienated its core clientele. Think of this as a supertanker that has been chugging along at 12 knots and the managers have had a look under the decks.... they have chucked out the nasty, oily and inefficient part and have concentrated on the presentation of the "brand". Well, the nasty, oily and inefficient part was the engine, but on a supertanker it will go on for a couple of years and lose little momentum..... changing course and stopping become more difficult without power, as does gaining momentum. The new ship investment marks the point where power is stepped up, but what is needed now is investment in a new board to beef up some elements and eliminate waste. We are at that point now IMO. I will be ready to commit more cash once the next CEO has been announced and in place.

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25/6/2019
22:38

koetser: Could the Saga share price be the bargain of the year? G A Chester | Tuesday, 25th June, 2019 | More on: G4M SAGA Question mark made up of pound symbols Image source: Getty Images. The Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price has been hitting new lows this year, as investors have deserted the over-50s financial services and travel group in droves. There’s been a similar exodus at online retailer of musical instruments and music equipment Gear4music (LSE: G4M). Here, I’ll discuss their turnaround prospects and give my view on whether they’re now bargains of the year, or stocks to avoid like the plague. Back to heritage Floated on the stock market at 185p in 2014, Saga has slumped over the last 18 months to little more than 33p (market-cap £370m). It was formally demoted from the mid-cap FTSE 250 index to the FTSE SmallCap index yesterday. The key to Saga’s future success rests on overcoming the challenges it faces from the commoditisation of the markets in which it operates, especially in insurance. Outgoing chief executive Lance Batchelor set out a fundamental change to the group’s strategy earlier this year: “To return the whole business to its heritage as an organisation that offers differentiated products and services.” I think this is the right approach. It is, of course, early days. But there were encouraging signs of progress in the company’s trading update at last week’s AGM, where management also confirmed the company was trading “broadly in line with expectations.” City consensus forecasts put the stock on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.4 with a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%. This looks good value to me for a potentially high-reward turnaround proposition. And because the stock is so cheap, I also see potential for a bid from private equity or for activist investors to come in and push for a break-up of the group. I think this may limit further downside for the shares. As such, I’m inclined to rate Saga a ‘buy’ at the current level.

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24/6/2019
21:43