Saga Share Discussion Threads

[koetser] 26/6/2019 10:22

Nice price action today 🤔

[edmondj] 26/6/2019 10:02

With goodwill constituting 122% of net assets, net tangible assets per share are negative to the tune of 18.8p.

Although Saga's updates proclaim £40 million ebitda from each of two new cruise ships coming into service, also a trend of reduction in net debt, they omit to mention what's buried near the end of notes to the annual accounts: £245m and £295m extra debt (in due course) for financing these ships, respectively. Before interest costs this extra debt will require repayment in £45 million installments a year, for the next 12 years. Each ship's projected ebitda is £40m. So take your view as to how value-accretive they will prove, according to bookings, what will be the net upshot for discounted cash flow NAV also prudent extent of dividend payout.

[sharebuddy1] 26/6/2019 09:48

Can somebody help me. I calculate the intrinsic value of the share at 109p i.e. book value at 86p + terminal value at 23p = 109p. Is this correct please?

[wskill] 26/6/2019 09:15

Think this is what the ships are designed for .

[diku] 26/6/2019 08:56

Do over 70's have the energy to travel?...too much health and safety issues involved...those ships would need so much modification in all aspects to cater for the very mature..

[buywell2] 26/6/2019 07:40

Some right prats pushing this POS

You should all be ashamed


The MACRO nobody has talked about is the state of the overblown USA Market

Hitting historical and hysterical highs the other week as Investors piled in expecting a series of rate cuts to keep the pot boiling.

The FED Chairman IF he takes his job seriously must NOT do this as the following crash will be of epic proportions.

The crash due to start now will be bad

But inflating the bubble in one last hurrah risks a 50% market crash next year as the Global Slowdown bites everyone that didn't see it coming in the jacksy.

That's @rse for those less elucidated among you sad sagging SAGA supporters.

Yesterday the FED Chairman used the 'slowdown' word and markets dropped

Markets are forward thinking by approx 12 months the way they move

dyor

[ignoble] 26/6/2019 06:11

What if they made Saga into an "over 40's"rather than" over 50's"
Pick up a bigger market...
Slight change of image?

Market Saga as for everyone, not just the Over 50's... Re Brand the Company
Just a thought..

[koetser] 26/6/2019 00:04

Did standard life just buy back lots of saga shares a few days after selling then???

[koetser] 25/6/2019 22:38

Could the Saga share price be the bargain of the year?
G A Chester | Tuesday, 25th June, 2019 | More on: G4M SAGA

Question mark made up of pound symbols Image source: Getty Images.
The Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price has been hitting new lows this year, as investors have deserted the over-50s financial services and travel group in droves. There’s been a similar exodus at online retailer of musical instruments and music equipment Gear4music (LSE: G4M).

Here, I’ll discuss their turnaround prospects and give my view on whether they’re now bargains of the year, or stocks to avoid like the plague.

Back to heritage
Floated on the stock market at 185p in 2014, Saga has slumped over the last 18 months to little more than 33p (market-cap £370m). It was formally demoted from the mid-cap FTSE 250 index to the FTSE SmallCap index yesterday.

The key to Saga’s future success rests on overcoming the challenges it faces from the commoditisation of the markets in which it operates, especially in insurance. Outgoing chief executive Lance Batchelor set out a fundamental change to the group’s strategy earlier this year: “To return the whole business to its heritage as an organisation that offers differentiated products and services.”

I think this is the right approach. It is, of course, early days. But there were encouraging signs of progress in the company’s trading update at last week’s AGM, where management also confirmed the company was trading “broadly in line with expectations.”

City consensus forecasts put the stock on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.4 with a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%. This looks good value to me for a potentially high-reward turnaround proposition.

And because the stock is so cheap, I also see potential for a bid from private equity or for activist investors to come in and push for a break-up of the group. I think this may limit further downside for the shares. As such, I’m inclined to rate Saga a ‘buy’ at the current level.

[sbb1x] 25/6/2019 16:37

Close @34.50p

[hairballradical] 25/6/2019 14:18

AI,

yes agreed, am looking for a bounce back to around 60p peak in the next month but settling around 43-45p.

[american idiot] 25/6/2019 13:56

Of course I do only mean in the short-term (Over the next few months)

Further direction will completely depend on future trade updates.

Sometimes SPs overshoot on the downside leaving room to bounce back a little and then stabilise. Take Thomas Cook for example. It recently fell to 8p and then bounced to 20p before stabilising midway at the current 14p mark.

Sentiment here might just change nearer the launch of the Spirit of Discovery.

[american idiot] 25/6/2019 13:40

Thinking the same hairballradical.

Higher low on the chart and we have strong buying again at the moment.

A break above around 37.7p would see a 'W' bottom pattern in play.

[wskill] 25/6/2019 13:32

The old ships after 30 years will have little borrowings the running cost of them at that age will be very high and they will burn much more fuel than new vessels .
there is some costs on the presentation below.

[hairballradical] 25/6/2019 13:32

33p bottom?

[koetser] 25/6/2019 13:23

Interesting price action

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/6/2019 12:44

So a debt servicing cost (capital and interest) of some £55m per annum. Cash.

Anyone know what the debt service cost of the outgoing vessels is?

[edmondj] 25/6/2019 12:38

The financing for Spirit of Discovery represents a 12-year fixed rate sterling loan, backed by an export credit guarantee. The loan value of approximately £245m will be repaid in 24 broadly equal instalments, with the first payment 6 months after delivery. On the date the finance was entered into, the Group purchased Euro currency forwards totalling £273.2m to lock in the cost of the ship.

The financing for Spirit of Adventure represents a 12-year fixed rate sterling loan, backed by an export credit guarantee. The loan value of approximately £295m will be repaid in 24 broadly equal instalments, with the first payment due 6 months after delivery. On the date the finance was entered into, the Group purchased Euro currency forwards totalling £211.5m, which represents 72% of the cost of the ship.

[edmondj] 25/6/2019 12:20

Also depends how the debt (repayment) is structured.

[american idiot] 25/6/2019 12:03

Spirit of Discovery - 2019/20 departures - 85.9% of revenues booked

Spirit of Discovery - 2020/21 departures - 31.1% of revenues booked

Spirit of Adventure - 2020/21 departures - 30.6% of revenues booked

I'd say that is very healthy bookings so far.

[stewart64] 25/6/2019 11:48

I agree re. the cruise ships. You've got a couple on finance costing 0.7 billion by 2020, twice the Market cap. Whether these assets perform or not is fundamental to the solvency of Saga.