Saga Share Discussion Threads

[ignoble] 23/6/2019 10:04

Thanks for the explanation, appreciated

[andycapp1] 23/6/2019 09:57

They won’t be worthless, they will or at least should have a significant residual value which will be factored in to the asset leasing cost - if that is how they’ve financed them - or into the residual value calc if they’ve funded them with equity and debt. Not sure what recourse the finder will have to the Group but I’m sure it’ll be some. But overarching point is after 25 years there should be value although there are soo many cruise ships now it might be smaller than currently

[andycapp1] 23/6/2019 09:57

They won’t be worthless, they will or at least should have a significant residual value which will be factored in to the asset leasing cost - if that is how they’ve financed them - or into the residual value calc if they’ve funded them with equity and debt. Not sure what recourse the finder will have to the Group but I’m sure it’ll be some. But overarching point is after 25 years there should be value although there are soo many cruise ships now it might be smaller than currently

[ignoble] 23/6/2019 09:47

Was reading back a few days and saw that sort of figure mentioned
I don't have a position in the stock but one I am watching
Still can't make my mind up..

Hey Ho, the joy of stocks

[sharebuddy1] 23/6/2019 09:27

Must have missed something. Where does £900 million come from?

[ignoble] 23/6/2019 09:15

Reading back at bit...
Borrowed £900 million to buy a couple of ships that will be presumably worthless in 25 years or so.

Not just Saga, of course, that go down this route and am guessing that is the only way to make Cruising possible and profitable (hopefully)

No different to borrowing money to buy a car knowing that in 10 years time it will be worthless
Needs must

[koetser] 23/6/2019 08:50

I would have thought they could charge premium prices for a new ship!!!
A discount of 30% sounds like destroying margins especially if already 86% booked for next year for a ship that has not even started sailing yet!!!

[cousin jack] 22/6/2019 23:56

Kenmitch

Bear in mind though that the advertised prices for the new Saga ship include a first year discount of around 30-35%. The gap to more expensive luxury lines will probably narrow significantly from the second year on.The ship looks great though - and it looks like a liner rather than the block of flats most lines are churning out. We usually go on the smaller P&O ships and are likely to stick with them whilst they have outside cabins, as they offer great value and a balcony is not something we crave. However when P&O no longer have smaller ships (which is the way it’s going) then I’m sure we’ll be looking at Saga if their new ships are as good as they look.

[edmondj] 22/6/2019 21:07

kenmitch,

Look forward to it! ;-)

[ignoble] 22/6/2019 16:30

Advertised in the Mail
254 day cruise on the Viking Prince
Top Room. £195000 per person
Amazing,,, Lottery win money

[kenmitch] 22/6/2019 13:17

EdmondJ

Yes. I know you are usually very clued up and have read your various columns since your Telegraph Private Investor days, but on cruises you seem off beam! e.g your description of their new ships is plain wrong in that their new ships are not GIANT but classed as small. e.g Just 1000 passengers, whereas the giant floating hotels have as many as 6000!

I’ll do a fuller reply within a day or so. Meantime I agree re Lance Batchelor!

[ignoble] 22/6/2019 09:17

Brochure free in the Daily Mail detailing all the New Cruises to come.
Looks very good and if I have read it correctly, all Cruises are "no fly"
I would think that will appeal to a lot of people.
Board at Southampton and return there.
Brochure is impressive, imho

[diku] 22/6/2019 08:10

I'm looking for Mr Goodmans?...

[edmondj] 22/6/2019 06:52

kenmitch,

Are you confident, choosy affluent pensioners will flock to Saga's new cruise-ships: a prestige or 'floating council estate' experience?



A curious aspect of the bull case advocated here (nothing personal implied) is agreement, Lance Batchelor is a hopeless CEO and almost any replacement will be a positive, yet the debt-driven gamble of these giant ships is effectively his project hence buyers of the stock long-term are taking a view on his competency also.

[kenmitch] 21/6/2019 23:12

Glavey.

Yes.

[gripfit] 21/6/2019 22:40

And then presumably ,, go and pay silly money for Destinology etc

[gripfit] 21/6/2019 22:39

It should not have been the valuation at IPO

[zulu_principle] 21/6/2019 20:34

Possibly yes, but I suspect they already have so I'm not expecting a bounce.

My understanding is that it just means the downward pressure is reduced - anyone got a more informed view?

[koetser] 21/6/2019 20:16

Does this mean that ftse smallcap funds will start buying on Monday?

[zulu_principle] 21/6/2019 18:33

Final FTSE250 tracker clearout - presumably some were actually transfers of ownership to other funds managed by the same company e.g. "Small Cap", "Recovery", etc). Should all calm down on Monday morning when the new indexes come into effect.

[koetser] 21/6/2019 17:36

That was huge volume!!!! So many sells and still it goes up!!!

[glavey] 21/6/2019 16:47

kenmitch, post 2381, is this what you are referring to?

"Price Promise (Saga Pearl II, Saga Sapphire, Spirit of Discovery and Spirit of Adventure only):
Should we ever reduce our prices or bring in a new special offer after you book (optional ad-hoc services are excluded), we’ll work out the difference and pass the value of the saving back to you. This applies as long as the discounted holiday is exactly the same package offered under exactly the same terms of sale (which means the full terms that apply to your holiday contract, including your cabin grade and whether your cabin is allocated at the time of booking or at embarkation). In calculating any possible saving due, we’ll take into consideration all offers and discounts that were applied at the time of booking and compare the overall price that you’ve been charged with the current price. We will pass on the value of the saving in the form of a higher grade cabin, on-board credit or other value added benefit."

[nav_mike] 21/6/2019 16:36

Wow I guess thats the last of the tracker funds exiting....huge volumes in closing auction - same in JUST Group

[nav_mike] 21/6/2019 16:30

The burst of selling seemed to coincide with a 600k odd OB trade that was reported a short while later. Buy or sell, who knows...would guess a sell

For last few days there has been a massive amount of OB trades, heavily skewed toward the buy side. Maybe its the tracker funds getting out on the AT trades and joe public taking them up.

Anyway for now at least the rot has stopped for a while