Saga Share Chat (SAGA)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Saga Plc	LSE:SAGA	London	Ordinary Share	GB00BLT1Y088	ORD 1P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	+0.12p	+0.26%	46.10p	45.74p	46.20p	46.86p	44.40p	46.58p	1,243,123	12:18:13

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Life Insurance	841.5	-162.0	-14.5	-	517

Saga Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3276 to 3300 of 3300 messages

Chat Pages: 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 Older

Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
15/10/2019 23:05	Is that right header chart giving a signal to 60p?...	diku	Read Full Thread Reply
11/10/2019 14:25	As "debate" seems rather one sided, I see no advantage in contributing further. Bon chance	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
11/10/2019 13:29	Doubt it because Iï¿½m not so clever as you	sharebuddy1	Read Full Thread Reply
11/10/2019 12:43	And will we benefit from any penetrating analysis from you, sharebuddy1?	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
11/10/2019 11:11	Thanks Erogenous Jones for your detailed thoughts. always interesting to hear someone else's insight and analysis. i would agree with a lot of what you have said and i think the case for investment is solid with many early positive indicators that the turnaround is well underway. The share price will of course be rocky until this is proven in forthcoming trading updates but at current pricing, offers those who are willing to take a slightly higher risk the prospect of substantial upside. i am not convinced that the current board of directors are positioning the business for a sale or split at present although this could be being explored behind the scenes. certainly the last trading update and other press articles i have seen from the CEO suggest that it is too early to consider a break-up for at least 1-2 years until they can really assess progress of the turnaround strategy. the picture they are giving is that they are pushing for a cross-selling business model bolstered by increasing take up of their saga possibilities membership. the recent launch of the goldman sachs joint venture for savings accounts seems to demonstrate this by offering account holders the opportunity to become a saga possibilities member and therefore increase exposure for cross selling opportunities. in some ways, if this strategy works out for them, they have a unique opportunity to sell directly to their members/customers from a central operating base (no high street overheads, less reliance on price comparison sites and intermediaries like insurance brokers/travel agents - by comparison to the competition) and will therefore increase operating margins. the ceo mentioned in the last trading update that they are beggining to realise true value in the saga possibilities membership model so will be very interesting to see how this progresses in the next updates. if the turnaround strategy works, then i cant see why there would be a rush for a split or sale. if it doesn't work then as you say, elliot are likely to pressurise for a split to realise immediate shareholder value and in that case, there is a compelling case for investment now particularly at current share prices. good luck to all holders.	rsivapalan	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 23:58	Thought so	sharebuddy1	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 23:45	Combination of debt that is implied as well as recorded. Look at the notes. The debt is stated nett of cash. So need to take the cash out from the figures. Then there is the future debt committed but not recognised for the new ship and then adjust things to have a more useful and revised level of interest for financing. I have taken the uplifts for six months, double it to have the full year and then doubled again for the second ship. Maybe a bit simplistic, but I like to know that I am starting from the worst possible position in a handicapped obstacle course where riders are blindfolded. I have tried to cut a hole in my blindfold so that I can get out of trouble quicker than I get in. But if I am wrong well, so be it.	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 23:25	Sorry but can’t see anything approaching £1.2 billion in the accounts	sharebuddy1	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 23:22	The recently published accounts. Facts are a good starting point for conjecture.	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 22:45	Where does the net debt figure of £1.2 billion come from?	sharebuddy1	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 22:36	The useless Batchelor is leaving in January so news of a CEO appointment must be imminent with Elliott heavily involved. I expect news within the next 4 weeks. SAGA must also be towards the top of the anticipated M&A list. 43p is ridiculous - even at 8x forecast earnings (8.2p) we come to 65p. The drops tend to be on low volume/shorter driven while institutions like Setanta have been building significant stakes.	justiceforthemany	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 21:47	Hence, rsivapalan, my decision to bung some more cash at these last Friday. My original decision to invest were that the shares were cheap relative to its peers, was profitable, paid a dividend and that the CEO was on his way out. Since my original purchases, Elliott have taken a decent stake, no appointment has been made for replacement CEO and the for sale sign has gone up for a brand that was not fully integrated, Bennetts. Bennetts are known as motorcycle insurance brokers. The insurance side contributes the bulk of profits, £100m+ and nett debt (£1.2bn) is almost exclusively to finance the cruise and leisure side. I am pretty sure that Elliott will press for that side to be sold or spun out as a separate company. That would make sense. The service cost of debt would be largely removed and go directly to the bottom line. With turnover of £400m from this last half year generating profits before tax of £52m and guidence given for full year profits to be £100m, the next step is to remove the turnover and profits attributed to cruises, £175m and £4m. In other words, from turnover on the insurance side (£225m) Saga generates £45m profit. Now, I know I am being simplistic, but the case for buying shares is very compelling - that is why Elliott have taken a decent stake and, I warrant will be pressing for the disposal of the cruise side. It is all a question of time. Once the next ship has been given a certificate of sea worthiness and Saga have taken delivery, I would expect the marketting to be ramped up to get some forward bookings. At that point, the cruise side becomes a viable business that can be sold to remove the cost of debt from turnover. And with the prospect of a new CEO, the obvious way to make their mark and see a rising share price in their tenure is to generate the same or improved profits at reduced cost. The share price has discovered its historic low, had a few months bumping along in a tight channel to allow investors to crystallise losses or lock in profits, has a recent new and active investor with a 5% stake that are able to influence decision making as well as a brand new fleet of 2 ships that are taking forward bookings (in preparation for sale, I believe). With the prospect of a new CEO in the New Year and Batchelor wanting to have a decent payoff measured by his options, shares in possession received already, it is in his interest to have a rising share price, at the first hint of good news, I suspect that the share price will rise swiftly - perhaps not immediately to 100p but that would be the point when I would look to remove my capital and allow profits to run while enjoying dividends locked in at current levels for the future. Sorry to ramble. Any thoughts yourself?	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 19:00	Interesting to see hiscox has a PE of 44 and only produced a profit of $140m on revenues of $3.8bn!	rsivapalan	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 16:26	sorry, i misread your earlier post @erogenous jones. i thought you said consistent rather than inconsistent! completely agree, on a p/e basis, saga looks very cheap and i couldnt see any other insurance companies with a similar valuation. same pressures on other insurers with potential regulatory changes on renewal prices except saga appear to be ahead of the game with their new price promise. sagas other interests, particularly cruise appears to be doing well with high level of bookings so should support a higher valuation. the other aspects (travel insurance and holidays etc) may not be faring as well but make up a smaller proportion of the bottom line.	rsivapalan	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 16:04	Admiral trading on a p/e of almost 15. But donï¿½t forget, unlike the others previously mentioned, Saga is not solely an insurer.	sharebuddy1	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 15:51	None to my knowledge. Hastings is trading at a PE of 9.8 Aviva is trading at a PE of 9.83 Hiscox is trading at a PE of over 35 EJ	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
10/10/2019 15:14	@erogenous jones - which peers are trading at p/e of 5?	rsivapalan	Read Full Thread Reply
09/10/2019 19:15	XD tomorrow so will see 1.3p knocked off the share price when markets open. We've had quite a few down days recently - it is not unheard of for a share price to end up even or positive on XD days, though I suspect we will need to be patient for a little longer. Bottom line is that the company is trading at a P/E of roughly 5 which is inconsistent with its peers.	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
09/10/2019 17:11	A P/E of 5 is far too low here.	justiceforthemany	Read Full Thread Reply
09/10/2019 14:24	yes, last day for divi buy and then crash goes the shares but i will sit on my hands unless they go sub 40p. the BoD's are useless and i hop the Eliott lot act once shares go sub 40p. DYOR C7	cautious7	Read Full Thread Reply
09/10/2019 10:49	Last day to buy to qualify for the dividend.	justiceforthemany	Read Full Thread Reply
09/10/2019 10:48	Bad PR for the cruising industry generally today, the riot on the Norwegian ship. Add on new environmental concerns, three times more unfriendly per mile than flying. Tbf I am totally biased against cruising ( not my idea of fun). I did drop those concerns to invest here sometime back; but such things obviously confirm that bias.	stewart64	Read Full Thread Reply
07/10/2019 12:17	My conclusion for the drop in share price last week was largely the disposal/reduction Of Standard lifes circa 1% interest in the company. This would equate to around ï¿½5.5m worth of shares by comparison to an average daily volume of circa ï¿½3m. Slightly exacerbated by the update on regulatory reform although given Saga have positioned and addressed the issues themselves ahead of any pending reform should place them in good stead against the competition. Insurance margins have been under pressure for some time and will affect the whole industry but this has been priced in and forms part of Sagaï¿½s turnaround strategy. With regards to cruise, there are a lot of posters citing Brecht concerns, fuel duty rises etc which may hamper this side of the business (and rightly so) but the facts illustrate a different picture. Cruise bookings have hit 100% of target for 19/20 and over 50% for 20/21. If they can prouduce results likes this in this economic climate with all the doom and gloom around the uncertainty we are facing, then I think the future may be bright for Saga. I think new investors in this stock will not be looking or yield/dividend given how volatile the share price has been and instead will be looking for capital gains (with any dividend being an added bonus) as the business stabilises. No doubt this is still a higher risk stock until there is clear continued progress but has very high upside potential in my opinion.	rsivapalan	Read Full Thread Reply
06/10/2019 18:18	Hi the div may support the share price for a few days then possibly back to close to 40p? DYOR C7	cautious7	Read Full Thread Reply
06/10/2019 15:23	On Friday I doubled up my holding to take advantage in a weak share price. We know that the company is profitable, with the bulk of earings from insurance. We know that Elliott have taken a decent position with a 5% share and that they are not in the business of benevolence. I gather that those with short positions are being reduced slightly as profits are banked from the share price performance over the last 12 months. To depress the share price, we have a number of elements - investigation announced into the treatment of loyal customers (priced in) and the shares go xd soon (this will impact by 1.3p on xd date. There is also uncertainty on the replacement for Mr Batchelor. There is the possibility of rising oil price that will affect running costs for the cruise ships. The shares fell to their historic low in the summer and have recovered since that time to trade in a narrow band allowing consolidation for long term holders and opportunity for losses to be crystallised or holdings to be accumulated. On a positive side, I believe that a new CEO will look to shed the cruise element - contributes little to profits but is a massive drain on cashflow and earnings. I would not be surprised to see a seismic shift in client base to shed the geriatric insuring base and to target a much younger audience, the focus being to reward non-claiming customers with greater discounts than other insurers. Of course, Brexit might throw up all sorts of opportunities that have advantage for insurers - green card translations, surety bond cover, international driving permits, holiday and medical insurance.	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply

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