Saga Share Chat (SAGA)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Saga Plc	LSE:SAGA	London	Ordinary Share	GB00BLT1Y088	ORD 1P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	+0.34p	+1.00%	34.50p	34.48p	34.92p	35.30p	32.94p	34.30p	8,356,200	16:35:04

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Life Insurance	841.5	-162.0	-14.5	-	387.00

Saga Share Discussion Threads

Showing 2526 to 2549 of 2550 messages

Chat Pages: 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 Older

Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
25/6/2019 22:38	Could the Saga share price be the bargain of the year? G A Chester \| Tuesday, 25th June, 2019 \| More on: G4M SAGA Question mark made up of pound symbols Image source: Getty Images. The Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price has been hitting new lows this year, as investors have deserted the over-50s financial services and travel group in droves. There’s been a similar exodus at online retailer of musical instruments and music equipment Gear4music (LSE: G4M). Here, I’ll discuss their turnaround prospects and give my view on whether they’re now bargains of the year, or stocks to avoid like the plague. Back to heritage Floated on the stock market at 185p in 2014, Saga has slumped over the last 18 months to little more than 33p (market-cap £370m). It was formally demoted from the mid-cap FTSE 250 index to the FTSE SmallCap index yesterday. The key to Saga’s future success rests on overcoming the challenges it faces from the commoditisation of the markets in which it operates, especially in insurance. Outgoing chief executive Lance Batchelor set out a fundamental change to the group’s strategy earlier this year: “To return the whole business to its heritage as an organisation that offers differentiated products and services.” I think this is the right approach. It is, of course, early days. But there were encouraging signs of progress in the company’s trading update at last week’s AGM, where management also confirmed the company was trading “broadly in line with expectations.” City consensus forecasts put the stock on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.4 with a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%. This looks good value to me for a potentially high-reward turnaround proposition. And because the stock is so cheap, I also see potential for a bid from private equity or for activist investors to come in and push for a break-up of the group. I think this may limit further downside for the shares. As such, I’m inclined to rate Saga a ‘buy’ at the current level.	koetser	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 16:37	Close @34.50p	sbb1x	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 14:18	AI, yes agreed, am looking for a bounce back to around 60p peak in the next month but settling around 43-45p.	hairballradical	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 13:56	Of course I do only mean in the short-term (Over the next few months) Further direction will completely depend on future trade updates. Sometimes SPs overshoot on the downside leaving room to bounce back a little and then stabilise. Take Thomas Cook for example. It recently fell to 8p and then bounced to 20p before stabilising midway at the current 14p mark. Sentiment here might just change nearer the launch of the Spirit of Discovery.	american idiot	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 13:45	Sadly, I think it is too early to state with any confidence that the price has bottommed out. IMO the short term chart remains southbound. I repeat that I am expecting a few months of consolidation before there is any genuine chance of a slow recovery.	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 13:40	Thinking the same hairballradical. Higher low on the chart and we have strong buying again at the moment. A break above around 37.7p would see a 'W' bottom pattern in play.	american idiot	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 13:32	The old ships after 30 years will have little borrowings the running cost of them at that age will be very high and they will burn much more fuel than new vessels . there is some costs on the presentation below. https://www.corporate.saga.co.uk/media/1268/saga-plc-2019-prelim-results-final.pdf	wskill	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 13:32	33p bottom?	hairballradical	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 13:23	Interesting price action	koetser	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 12:44	So a debt servicing cost (capital and interest) of some £55m per annum. Cash. Anyone know what the debt service cost of the outgoing vessels is?	imastu pidgitaswell	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 12:38	The financing for Spirit of Discovery represents a 12-year fixed rate sterling loan, backed by an export credit guarantee. The loan value of approximately £245m will be repaid in 24 broadly equal instalments, with the first payment 6 months after delivery. On the date the finance was entered into, the Group purchased Euro currency forwards totalling £273.2m to lock in the cost of the ship. The financing for Spirit of Adventure represents a 12-year fixed rate sterling loan, backed by an export credit guarantee. The loan value of approximately £295m will be repaid in 24 broadly equal instalments, with the first payment due 6 months after delivery. On the date the finance was entered into, the Group purchased Euro currency forwards totalling £211.5m, which represents 72% of the cost of the ship.	edmondj	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 12:20	Also depends how the debt (repayment) is structured.	edmondj	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 12:03	Spirit of Discovery - 2019/20 departures - 85.9% of revenues booked Spirit of Discovery - 2020/21 departures - 31.1% of revenues booked Spirit of Adventure - 2020/21 departures - 30.6% of revenues booked I'd say that is very healthy bookings so far.	american idiot	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 11:48	I agree re. the cruise ships. You've got a couple on finance costing 0.7 billion by 2020, twice the Market cap. Whether these assets perform or not is fundamental to the solvency of Saga.	stewart64	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 10:49	Have to say that I thought it had hit the bottom last week. I guess the biggest risk factor here in the short term will be the performance of the cruise ships......if they perform well in the next couple of years then there can be a strong turnaround.	salpara111	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 09:42	Makes perfect sense Iancc..... I don't think it will drop into the teens PROVIDED that all the bad news is in the open. What I suspect we are seeing now are those punters from earlier times chucking in the towel. Co-incidentally, I am expecting to be able to buy my final tranche around the point when a new CEO is announced and guessing that will happen in the early autumn. Am sitting on quite a bit of cash at the moment as the summer months generate a lot of very chunky dividends but with the prospect of an escalation of tension in the middle east, I have been adding to my holding in Shell. (Have owned shares in Shell for over 40 years).	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 09:13	If only somebody would ring the bell when to sell...text books are just text books reality is very different with all situations...and as for in hindsight we would all be billionaires.... Investor adage includes "run your profits" and "cut your losses". An investor at launch has had plenty of opportunity to cut their loss or at least minimise it if they had averaged down. Those same investors that have not sold are sitting on a paper loss and tend to give up once the share price has actually bottommed out.	diku	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 09:09	EJ I was just picking a price point of 18p At which point I'd stop the kids pocket money for a couple of weeks and snap this up !	iaincc	Read Full Thread Reply
25/6/2019 00:32	EJ That's very true, especially on the 90% loss comment. Is there any imminent danger to Saga - no. Is there longer term debt related issues - yes. And throw in the Brexit formula, investors hit the panic button. Profits can service the debt, a sensible achievable strategy will restore confidence and who knows what a shaken up board can achieve? At low 30s in my mind this is a real bargain. That's just my opinion and theres a whole spectrum out there to contend with. HBR	hairballradical	Read Full Thread Reply
24/6/2019 23:00	Iancc, the float price is immaterial and should be of no importance whatsoever for any investor now. The float was succesful in that the shares were subscribed with a mix of institutional and private investors. The valuation of the company under the management of the board during that time have been tempered with the cautions described in regulatory statements. We now see the CURRENT valuation and it is from this level that investors can asses the viability that SAGA plc holds in the future. Investor adage includes "run your profits" and "cut your losses". An investor at launch has had plenty of opportunity to cut their loss or at least minimise it if they had averaged down. Those same investors that have not sold are sitting on a paper loss and tend to give up once the share price has actually bottommed out. If you are one such investor, crystallising a 90% loss, then you can console yourself that the share price can still fall 100% (from here). A buyer and a seller both need to believe that they are making a brilliant decision. Only one will be correct. Time will be the judge.	erogenous jones	Read Full Thread Reply
24/6/2019 21:43	From IG: Saga share price: what’s the outlook as turnaround plans gets underway? The over 50s insurance and holiday brand is busy executing its turnaround strategy amid a difficult insurance and travel market, providing little support to its share price. SagaSource: Bloomberg Insurance Takeover Brand Valuation Retail Aaran Fronda \| Financial writer, London \| Monday 24 June 2019 15:36 Saga continues to rely heavily on its insurance business to prop up profits, while the troubling travel market continues to negatively impact its results. Insurance broking accounted for 59% of the company’s profits in 2018, but even that has taken a hit with Saga struggling to keep customers onboard as increased competition and ease of switching provider making it a challenging market to navigate. AGM statement sends share price south In the wake of its AGM statement, which saw Saga warn investors how political uncertainties were weighing on its tour operator business, its share price fell more than 14% to £32.28 on Wednesday last week. The company used the statement to also mention how ‘despite challenging trading conditions in both insurance and travel markets’ the over 50s insurance and tour operator has seen trading between February 1 to June 18 remain in line with expectations. ‘We are resolutely focused on the execution of our new strategy and have a clear set of priorities,’ Saga CEO Lance Batchelor said. ‘Against challenging headwinds in both travel and insurance, we see early signs of progress in stabilising our Retail Broking business and forward bookings for the Cruise business have been resilient,’ he added. Saga ‘vulnerable to takeover’ as share price sinks Saga’s turnaround plan will need to reap results sooner rather than later, with the company’s sliding share price leaving its ‘vulnerable to takeover’, according to AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould in an interview with ThisIsMoney. ‘The company is in a sticky mess and is now reliant on flawless execution to try and put the business back on track,’ he said. ‘The very depressed market valuation leaves Saga vulnerable to takeover interest from rivals.’ ‘Despite the recent setbacks its brand still has considerable value and it does have a large customer base which presents opportunities to make money should someone feel brave enough to buy the company while it is on its knees,’ he added.	koetser	Read Full Thread Reply
24/6/2019 21:34	Now just imagine if there was no CEO since the IPO...would it have made any difference to the share price?...	diku	Read Full Thread Reply
24/6/2019 21:28	No ,, but it’s a good move in the right direction ,,, I’m happy if they are going to be taking massive stakes in Saga , they must have serious hope	gripfit	Read Full Thread Reply
24/6/2019 21:27	No ,, but it’s a good move in the right direction ,,, I’m happy if they are going to be taking massive stakes in Saga , they must have serious hope	gripfit	Read Full Thread Reply

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