Saga Share Discussion Threads

[blondeamon] 26/1/2020 09:16

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7929433/Over-50s-firm-Saga-brink-break-tour-arm-goes-sale.html Over-50s firm Saga on brink of break-up as tour arm goes on sale Saga has decided to try to sell its Titan Travel arm, according to City sources Saga has appointed advisers from Duff & Phelps to carry out the sale Imagine if Insurance went well in last 6 months and now they also completely sell the Travel part for another 150m. Share price could explode.

[erogenous jones] 26/1/2020 09:11

This institution that has sold short is not one familiar to me. The qty of shares that have been sold short is fairly irrelevent in practical terms with a rather limited downside for the share price based on the under lying assets. It could be that the cash raised is neede for investment in a company that has better prospects. Had a dozen or so fund managers held short position and were increasing their grip, I would be nervous. I am expecting solid and dull results that are consistent with or slightly better than expectation. I am hoping that the accompanying statements are optimistic with a strategy to maintain margin. As the target market 50+ is growing, the division that does not seem to be providing much financial contribution is care. That seems ripe for attention. Maybe expand it to include funerals?

[sharebuddy1] 24/1/2020 21:10

An increase in their short position of 0.07% hardly indicates inside knowledge of something bad being divulged by the trading statement. More likely it is simply following the downward trend of recent days.

[beerboy2] 24/1/2020 18:07

Ive never shorted a company in my life, it does not sit well with my conscience knowing i could be part of the reason people have lost there jobs and worse. Like i said i hope im wrong

[jetstar23] 24/1/2020 17:36

Or perhaps increase your short position briefly to drive the price down to buy, on the basis you know it'll rise on a good trading update?

[beerboy2] 24/1/2020 17:32

Thats really not good an increased short position before the trading update on Tuesday, sounds like a bit of inside imformation. Hope im wrong.

[erogenous jones] 24/1/2020 16:30

I notice that Ardevora have increased their short position. Begins to explain the recent drop in share price. hTTps://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BLT1Y088

[blondeamon] 24/1/2020 10:28

I bought recrntly at 47p and if we revisit 43p before the update I'll buy lots more. I take a bet that the market is spooked for no reason as the delay is simply because of the new CEO. If the news were bad they would be out fast so he can get it all out there and claim he fixed everything afterwards. If he's taking long to publish my bet is he is seeing some really good numbers from the Boris bounce in both Cruises and Insurance and one more weekend will make the numbers even sweeter. The old CEO goes out with his head high, the new one joins with fanfare.

[diku] 22/1/2020 22:43

40p some support then eventually 33p retest...one can do tons of analysis and still get it wrong... statements are massaged to give an impression but the reality can be different...

[blondeamon] 22/1/2020 20:05

Meanwhile, their Insurance reviews on Trustpilot fill almost 2 pages a day and are majority average 4-5 stars: Https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.saga.co.uk They also raised today the rates to 1.50% from 1.15% of their bank accounts offered via Goldman Sachs. Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-7913197/Saga-puts-rates-50s-able-earn-1-5.html

[blondeamon] 22/1/2020 20:04

2 weeks ago 45 cruises were available, today only 40. Talked to the online chat sales agent and asked her why that is: she said cruises are removed from the site when they are sold out. 5 ships already on 100% load factor for 2020, with the MAXIMUM margin and profits. And these leave in 2-3 months so they got sold out a quarter in advance. Most of the cruises she said for the Spirit of Discovery are sold out 2 months in advance and adviced me to book early. If that remains then it won't be 40m EBITDA per ship but close to 55m. Which means instead of 20m PBT per ship, it'll be 27.5m. And Spirit of Rhine joining next year... 105-120m pbt is this year's target. If insurance has not deteriorated they will be on the higher range of those estimates. Yield right now is 11.3% and if the update is good this can jump back to 60p in weeks. It's a risky share and if Insurance numbers are horrible then this could tank so tread lightly.

[beerboy2] 22/1/2020 17:37

You would think if it was bad news Mr Sutherland would have got the news out of the way earlier, it suits his case that the Sp is declining at present, makes it easier to take credit as it starts to rise in the future under his leadership. Hopefully imo

[pete160] 22/1/2020 16:54

C7, you tell us every time that the company is terrible but then that you're going to buy lower.If its really that terrible, why would you buy at all?

[pete160] 22/1/2020 16:52

Gripfit - are those 2 of your lottery numbers as, without any reasoning, they're just as speculative?

[alamachado] 22/1/2020 16:30

My feeling is that the trading update was meant to be earlier in the month and some may be thinking the delay is because of bad news. But I don't think so, my feeling is that the 28th makes more sense as its a consideration of the transitional change at the top and might be even be to highlight new initiatives that the new BOD have in mind. Bookings are looking good and policies are stabilizing, 175K new policies on the 3 year fixed back in July 2019, now might be close to 250K and 3 year policies give many customers the incentive to stay. Over reaction most likely on low volume. All in ever optimistic opinion :)

[kron76] 22/1/2020 16:02

Seems to happen on loads of shares in the build up to results - always makes me suspicious but then have also seen big swings the wrong way i.e the share price tanks and the results actually are great.

[erogenous jones] 22/1/2020 16:01

Well, this week has been a bit grim hasn't it? I have no problem if a share price falls IF the underlying information to sustain the company valuation has changed. Grateful thanks to scrwal for posting the date 28 January as that for the scheduled update. Mr Batchelor leaves on 31 January. If there is any more bad news, I am sure that it will be within this update if, for no other reason than to draw a line under the old administration. Perhaps the share price is being walked down in anticipation of this, I don't know? However, if we try and concentrate on facts and comparisons, we do know that Hastings have been rather clobbered by higher claims and increased competition; their business model is focussed only on insurance whereas Saga has the additional revenue streams from leisure and care. Hastings have flat volumes in terms of quantity of policy holders though they are paying roughly 5% more. My hope is that the 3 year fixed policies that Saga began to tout is bringing a few new customers on board, perhaps even, some of those from Hastings. The advantage is that it does give broad revenue assurance so that financial plans can be made with some confidence. Data provided from the excellent research published by blondeamon on forward bookings and likely revenues for cruises which, as there are more berths, provides a bigger contribution to the top and bottom lines. Using nautical terminology, we have run into some squally weather conditions and it is a case of battenning down the hatches, ensuring that there is plenty of metochlopramide available and turning monitors off for a week of two. If the sun comes out, happy days. If not....well, provided that some dividend is maintained, it will mitigate some of the downside.

[cautious7] 22/1/2020 14:54

Hi Not looking good at all. Usaally some type of leak IMO and I don't mean the ship, lol. DYOR C7 - may buy some more at lower than previous buy at 42p.

[scrwal] 22/1/2020 13:34

Trading update is 28 Jan per company website.

[jetstar23] 22/1/2020 13:18

We were briefly down 6.2% for about 30 seconds at 1310 with a huge amount of trades going through before it recovered slightly.

[beerboy2] 22/1/2020 12:47

This is not looking good its broken through its support trend line, we really need a good RNS soon.

[sharebuddy1] 22/1/2020 10:50

Interesting Peel Hunt have retained their target at 110p. How can the brokers’ outlooks be so different when presumably they are using the same information?

[diku] 21/1/2020 21:23

Maybe the news leaked around 2pm..hence the turn around...

[blondeamon] 20/1/2020 20:19

Any day now this week. Could be tomorrow.