Saga Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 29/5/2019 09:13

The new ships look state of the art.
Engines are bound to be fuel efficient and environmentally friendly.
Same with everything else, including catering facilities.
Note the shape of the hull, capable of the more interesting, no morons allowed, cold water cruises.

Unlike the large fine weather only ships housing thousands, a nightmare vision for many.

Cruise ships are similar to modern passenger aircraft.
Operators have to buy the latest to keep running costs down and customer satisfaction up.

[boraki] 29/5/2019 08:52

Certainly a falling knife at the moment.

Very disappointing indeed

[buywell2] 29/5/2019 08:00

The ships I was involved with were cargo ships ... every penny squeezed out of them


'' The average lifespan for a passenger ship can be as long as 30 years.''


So my number above is generous , after 15 years they will drop 50% after 20 years 66%

htTtps://petergreenberg.com/2014/01/29/cruise-ships-recycled-rebranded-new/


Do your numbers again .... I dare you




NAV_Mike24 May '19 - 12:26 - 1819 of 1882

Say EBITDA is £40m approx

Ship cost £300m

I = Interest say 7.5% on loan finance of £245m approx £18.5m

D = Depreciation over say 20 years approx £15m

Actual profits around £6.5m if the EBITDA estimate is anywhere near accurate

[stewart64] 29/5/2019 07:20

I'm on the three year home insurance plan. Initial teaser rate for home and contents to one million was less than £130 back in 2016. By year three the renewal was up to £200, so I went to comparethemarket and Saga ended up matching the £130 quote. On year four and Saga started the three year plan at £154 which I was ok with.

[edmondj] 29/5/2019 07:11

Fair enough, for those who end up in recourse.

[sharebuddy1] 29/5/2019 07:05

It’s not just the price that’s important with insurance, travel etc. it’s also the service. In this respect, Saga is one of the best.

[edmondj] 29/5/2019 06:26

This "three year fixed" price insurance strategy isn't unique though, the AA pitched it to me similarly last December when renewing my home insurance. I protested at the insurers' wheeze of racking up renewal prices saying I was off elsewhere if they didn't change their ways; was told they already are starting to. Maybe the industry has figured sponsoring cut-price newbies is financially self-defeating, also one to attract regulatory attention. So if fixed pricing is the new trend generally where might that leave an insurance profits' re-rating here?

I'm in my fifties and get mailshots from Saga for home/motor insurance but as soon as I've compared the market e.g. via GoCompare then it hasn't made anywhere near sense to switch to Saga - hence my impression they've assumed they can continue to charge premium prices to a senior clientele who aren't dexterous online. (Like my poor old Nan who was also suckered into buying stock after the continuous mailshots.) Quite what extent to factor in such complacency unraveling...

(No position in the stock.)

[sharebuddy1] 29/5/2019 00:17

I really think the new insurance strategy will lead to much higher profits. Also when the value of the new cruiseships is fully realised, compared to the old ones they replaced, then the Group profits will will return and, indeed, exceed where they were i.e £200 million. With this cash flow they could easily finance the acquisition of one or two more new cruiseships which will lead to massive increases in profits. I am very bullish and think the negativity has been grossly overdone. Just my opinion.

[pander45] 28/5/2019 22:44

Starting to look interesting......

[diku] 28/5/2019 21:50

Do they mean total full year divi for current year will be down to 2p?...



- Proposed full year dividend reduced to 4.0p with expected future payout of approximately 50%

[justiceforthemany] 28/5/2019 19:16

Heads must and most probably will roll at the AGM in June for this shocking debacle. As for the short sellers a forward P/E of 5 is not low enough FFS?

E-Mail directly the person most responsible
Appointed March 2014

[e-mail]

[diku] 28/5/2019 19:01

Now if somebody had bought around 190p five years ago when the going was fair to good and then they forgot about it for 5 years and they looked at it today...what do you think their reaction would be?...do shareholders get a freebie cruise?...




We are all mad, we should forget them for at least 5 years.

[gutterhead] 28/5/2019 18:51

Needs to be broken up
What does an insurance co know about leisure industry and vice Versa

[diku] 28/5/2019 18:50

Either the Chairman or the CEO time is up...but as usual they will walk with a golden handshake...

[justiceforthemany] 28/5/2019 18:47

The AGM is just 2 weeks away. With the share price at 45p an all time low and a quarter of the IPO price Batchelor's time is up. You would have to be a complete idiot to vote to keep him as CEO at the AGM.

[diku] 28/5/2019 18:19

I figured it out now..the swimming pool is around the ship!...

[sharebuddy1] 28/5/2019 17:41

I fully agree with the last sentence. Long term investors “fill your boots”

[careful] 28/5/2019 17:02

Supply and demand fixes prices.

But compared to fundamental value, or the prospect of generating wealth over the longer term, the current market prices are wrong.
A buyers strike.

But if we picked up a selection on bombed out shares it will be interesting to see how they perform over a ten year period.

As we all know, SAGA is an insurance and leisure company.
We have become too short term, we are not proper investors at all.

Buffett was right in his early days, one the purchase was made he did not check the daily price movements, that is crazy.
It will take years to see if this companies strategy is correct, and if their niche cruise strategy works out.

In the meantime we can buy shares in this company at over 70% less that they were a short while ago.
And yet we will be checking tomorrow morning to see how they open.
We are all mad, we should forget them for at least 5 years.

[careful] 28/5/2019 16:49

Just the right number of passengers.
Not too big not too small.
Who would want to be trapped on one of those floating cities?