Saga Share Discussion Threads

[stewart64] 10/4/2019 11:51

I'm not in and wont be, but I think there is more upside than down. But too risky for me, except a very small punt. Impossible to see how the massive debt gearing could unwind and the profitability of quarter billion floating palaces unknowable too.

[justiceforthemany] 10/4/2019 10:42

Volume settling down a bit. Who has bought the shares the funds dumped this past week? Apparently for every seller there's a buyer.

[justiceforthemany] 10/4/2019 10:08

Worth remembering only a month ago Sky's Mark Kleinman reported two of Saga's holiday businesses were expected to be sold shortly for upwards of £100M. Further debt reduction.

[blueball] 10/4/2019 09:01

Still in freefall.

[justiceforthemany] 09/4/2019 22:53

FCA short tracker showing reduction of 0.19%

[diku] 09/4/2019 21:49

Wonder what the clients of this broker do?...do they just laugh it off...ban this broker price target and recommendation across the plc casino markets...it serves no purpose...it is like a circus and comedy put together...




elsa7878
8 Apr '19 - 09:53 - 1511 of 1586
0   1  0



UBS downgrade. 150p to 65p. Neutral rating...which means sell.

[andycapp1] 09/4/2019 19:45

Stewart, I’m no expert on financing cruise ships but I’d guess each is in its own non recourse SPV with maybe 20% equity and the rest debt. So if each costs £270m then maybe £50m of Saga equity in both. I certainly doubt if they’ve been on balance sheet financed. This is now a straight asset play. The model is screwed. Insurance isn’t worth much I suspect but the rest is worth a few quid. Trouble is EV is north of £1.1bn and debt might become an issue if EBITDA falls much further. In short I’m not a buyer as the further it falls the worse it gets.

[thecroots] 09/4/2019 19:17

Hi Careful,

Not sure if i was clear enough. It wasn't a dig at SAGA, (I recently bought in at 72P)
it was a mere comment regarding peoples reactions to share price movements!

I agree, whilst the shares are battered, (and luckily I'm only recently in from Thursday) i do think they could be a decent long term recovery play.

We shall see.

[careful] 09/4/2019 18:55

All investments in equities are risk/reward.
I struggle to recall a single share that has not halved in recent times.
If you want risk free safety buy N.S.Income bonds.A risk free 1% available.

There is a risk that this insurance/cruise business model could fail.
Right now the shares have been brutally punished to reflect the fear.
And the usual short sellers and disrupters are doing their worst to destroy sentiment.

It will take 5 years to get a clearer picture.
£10k invested in SAGA, or £10K risk free giving us a guaranteed 5 year gain of 5.1%.

I am in, will stay in, and hope we prosper.

[thecroots] 09/4/2019 18:31

Wow, I really don't think investing in the stock market is for everyone.

[asusasus] 09/4/2019 17:43

This could be another DEB in 12 months time!

[stewart64] 09/4/2019 17:28

Re. The Spirit of Discovery..the cost is approx. 270m, add on the Spirit of Adventure and we are almost at Market cap. Too much risk for Saga's size?

[scrwal] 09/4/2019 15:15

The market won't like this share until the interims come out and show the new strategy is working.
The price has tanked for several reasons mainly the dividend cut and the wretched forecast of £105-120M underlying pbt. The forecast is worrying given it is a third lower than the 2019 results and also presumably includes 6 months relating to SoD cruises.
The results were overshadowed by the writedown and problems with the insurance business but I was surprised at the lack of attempt at anything upbeat especially regarding SoD just a bit saying it's on time for July sailings.Any problems this year and the forecast is sunk.
It will be interesting to know how the forecast pbt was split between the business elements
I think the interim div may be only 1p and the final next year 2p as the I think a pbt of c£100m may be achieved and the eps only 6/7p.

[asusasus] 09/4/2019 15:07

Learnt my lesson and that's what it's all about. Cut my losses and moved on. I won't be looking at the share that's fallest the most, looking for a bounce again. Looking more at this it looks like a disaster.

[glavey] 09/4/2019 12:49

Hello Iain, Just dropped by for a little de-ramp then... ;-)

[iaincc] 09/4/2019 11:44

I am told the Cruises are poorly run.

I have been hit with 30% insurance increases at renewal - so guess what I switched away.

The management are completely out of touch.

The diminishing user base is probably worth 25p per share.
The out of touch management reduce the per share value by 50p.
SO it is still over-valued and I don't see anyone with any sense making a takeover approach.

Could be a penny share tip in the next decade if this management stops believing it's "blue sky" and starts looking after the customers.

[noreply1] 09/4/2019 11:26

Is that the bottom or lower to be tested.....

[g2theary] 09/4/2019 10:25

I personally think theses are over sold for the short term... as always with profit warnings theses days...

[boraki] 09/4/2019 10:22

Have we now hit the floor?

[bookbroker] 09/4/2019 10:03

Forecasts, Batchelor should step aside, he is another worzel who believes part of his remit is to destroy shareholder value, been here from the first collapse back in 2017, why do they believe they are on the correct path, because otherwise this would be growing, not shrinking. And does he know that this new strategy will succeed! They need to focus on cash flow, reducing debt and investing sensibly, it is all about survival now as a company, and just maybe someone will come knocking, hopefully not the grim reaper!

[stewart64] 09/4/2019 08:59

At what point is a rebound a rebound. Could go 55, 70, 40. If you bought now.( I haven't) then buying now under thst price movement would be less damaging than an assumed rebound purchase at 70. 57 will see a 7% yield with their targetted two times cover for 2020. Trusting their forecasts is another matter.