Saga Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 10/4/2019 19:24

Start of April 2019 share was at 110p...today at 57p...is there any logic in how share price should be evaluated?... it is nothing but a Ponzi casino...buy a share and hope for the best...

[diku] 10/4/2019 18:40

Many many moons ago investing meant something...not any more since the tech boom and bust of 2000...ever since then the giant casino has just got bigger and bigger...the house (insiders) are the only winners in the casino...wider shareholder are just a side kick to be kicked around...

[justiceforthemany] 10/4/2019 17:21

Volume only 1.5x average today. Perhaps the funds who have been dumping have finished for now. Those shares will need to be bought back by someone. RSI an insanely low 8.2.
Forward P/E <7, Dividend 7%

[dealy] 10/4/2019 17:17

I got killed on Indivior today. Feel like giving up on investing

[boraki] 10/4/2019 16:33

I still think the market has way over-reacted to this company.

Time will tell, however, one thing is for sure at the moment, the market is very negative towards these.

Maybe an agenda in the back ground.

We shall see.

Hurting very badly with this one and The Restaurant Group, which i sold out of with a huge loss to come here.

Cest la Vie,

Story of my life

[careful] 10/4/2019 16:21

Sentiment is fickle.
The business model is well established and everyone knows the risks and opportunities.
Increasing debt to obtain wealth generating assets is what business is all about.

Everyone who takes out a buy to let mortgage so they can purchase a house for rent is doing the same thing.
Everyone thinks property is a one way bet, but it is not.

If the management is taking rational decisions then all will turn out fine.
If they cannot predict and react to trends in the insurance market, or in the leisure market, the we are all in trouble.

Right now the market is pricing this for failure.

[spob] 10/4/2019 16:08

This is now around 75% below the all time high

only problem is, it's not as cheap as it looks because the net debt will soon be almost One Billion Pounds !

current market cap = 638m

[spob] 10/4/2019 16:03

Do you expect the dividend to be maintained ? even at a reduced rate

I think Saga will be forced to cancel the dividend completely in the next year or so

time will tell i guess

[careful] 10/4/2019 16:00

No one is giving these the benefit.
Amazing collapse.
All of a sudden a well thought out, positive business decision to buy new ships becomes a potential bankruptcy situation.

The same could be said of all capital intensive investments.

Amazon, profitless in retail, is worshipped for every extra billion it wastes on business expansion.
They do not slash their dividend to a mere 5%, they never pay one, and there is little chance they ever will.

Crazy markets.

[stewart64] 10/4/2019 15:52

First year depreciation on a 270m cruise ship at 20% would be 54 million, so down on the 40m EBITDA on depreciation alone. Ok they have a 30 year lifespan and may pull a good profit over the lifetime. But previously Saga has dipped into the secondhand market for its fleet. I'd probably have looked there, but then I would make a Bearish CEO, not a buccanneering type that wants new toys. I've just not got the Spirit of Adventure I guess.

[spob] 10/4/2019 14:20

the new ships will do well to break even for the first few years imo

[spob] 10/4/2019 14:19

new ships wont contribute anything in the first few years in terms of actual net profits

because of the debt repayments

[scrwal] 10/4/2019 14:04

I was going to buy in but waited for the results. I find it bizarre that the Board were unaware of what was going on and their own intentions when the Q3 update came out. To not flag things up then discredits so many things especially any confidence in the new strategy and the figures supplied.

Travel seems to be the main growth area but I am confused by the figures thrown out for 20/21. If doesn't help when the terminology used is mixed.
eg 2021/22 Travel PBT is £60-75m This year it was £21.1m. The two new ships are going to produce each c£40m EBITDA so not sure what the PBT gain is but say it's £40m then there is no real growth from existing operations.

So to me by mixing PBT and EBITDA the Board aren't being clear on what the new ships are really going to contribute. Most of the strategy references underlying PBT so that is what the ships contribution should be linked to.

Currently there seems to be more long term upside than downside but there is significant short term downside with this Board of Directors implementing the strategy change especially considering their inability to spot things.
The underlying PBT may have been in line with expectations but to write off £310m of goodwill and slash the div and future expected PBT at the same time isn't the way to go and probably could have been highlighted earlier. Makes you wonder what will happen with the next set of interims and prelims.

[stewart64] 10/4/2019 11:51

I'm not in and wont be, but I think there is more upside than down. But too risky for me, except a very small punt. Impossible to see how the massive debt gearing could unwind and the profitability of quarter billion floating palaces unknowable too.

[justiceforthemany] 10/4/2019 10:42

Volume settling down a bit. Who has bought the shares the funds dumped this past week? Apparently for every seller there's a buyer.

[justiceforthemany] 10/4/2019 10:08

Worth remembering only a month ago Sky's Mark Kleinman reported two of Saga's holiday businesses were expected to be sold shortly for upwards of £100M. Further debt reduction.

[blueball] 10/4/2019 09:01

Still in freefall.

[justiceforthemany] 09/4/2019 22:53

FCA short tracker showing reduction of 0.19%

[diku] 09/4/2019 21:49

Wonder what the clients of this broker do?...do they just laugh it off...ban this broker price target and recommendation across the plc casino markets...it serves no purpose...it is like a circus and comedy put together...




elsa7878
8 Apr '19 - 09:53 - 1511 of 1586
0   1  0



UBS downgrade. 150p to 65p. Neutral rating...which means sell.