Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 28/2/2022 14:00

#1594 Broadly I agree. Considerations are negative net assets, falling property prices, rouble exchange rate and list of tenants.

Tenants include:
Zara, DHL, Schenker, Diageo, Bacardi, Pernod, Makita, Pepsi, Danone, Toyota, Saint-Gobain

[cassini] 28/2/2022 13:43

Spread is 11.9% (5p)

[m_kerr] 28/2/2022 13:34

on interest rates, to stem the outflows of capital and keep inflation under control i'd imagine they'll have to keep rates high, but i'm not an expert on monetary policy. what i do know is making money in one currency whilst borrowing in another is sheer madness as you are fully exposed to currency swings. whilst the value of their property, rouble debt, and rents (well, 97% of them) has overnight depreciated by 20%, the euro denominated debt stays the same.

on my calculation, the depreciation of rouble, whilst also borrowing in euros has instantly reduced the sterling value of the equity by 30%, and effectively spot LTV is now about 65%. if i was a shareholder i'd double check the full impact of sanctions regarding their ability to refinance their euro denominated debt in around 3 years time.

none of the above takes into account the effect if property prices fall in russia. i'd imagine sanctions and withdrawal of foreign direct investment will place significant downward pressure on the sort of institutional property RAVEN own. in addition, you have to discount future cashflows by 20% instead of 10%. so in effect a 50% fall in intrinsic capital values. take off the LTV at 65% and you're now negative 15% - i.e. zero value.

[zangdook] 28/2/2022 12:59

It depends how long the situation lasts. Interest rates are not likely to stay at 20% for very long.

[mwj1959] 28/2/2022 12:44

@m_kerr precisely the points I've made in previous posts here.

[badtime] 28/2/2022 11:34

As of now, glad I got out last week

[m_kerr] 28/2/2022 11:30

I posted this on the other board - as far as I can see, their rents are paid in roubles (97%),but 38% of their debt is denominated in Euros. if their portfolio yield is 10%, and rouble interest rates are now 20%, then capital values must be dropping very significantly. you'd make double the income return leaving your rouble capital in the bank. it seems to me this company is effectively worthless, as the LTV is high at 60%, and the cost of refinancing the debt in around 3 years time will be beyond their ability to pay as it atands. to pay back the euro debt will be a strech as the rouble has dropped again against the euro (20%).

[spectoacc] 28/2/2022 10:50

Agreed @hpcg, & certainly wouldn't rule out a dcb - they'll trade on supply/demand from PIs, not on reality (as them holding up so well last week shows).

[zangdook] 28/2/2022 10:29

RAV generally bubbles around 30p, and now it's down 50%. RAVP, which is more secure (fwiw) generally bubbles around over £1, and now it's down substantially more than 50%. So anyone with RAV and thinking of holding on might be advised to switch.

[hpcg] 28/2/2022 10:26

PIs aren't quick enough to sell bond like instruments IMO, myself included, in the past, I hope. The rewards are small and it is much more difficult to come back from a wipe out than with equities. Positions at risk need to be sold with just a few percentage points loss and no more. This is still just a falling knife and even 24p of reserved distributions turns to nothing if the assets are taken as they will be swept up by the most senior debt.

[spectoacc] 28/2/2022 09:49

It's a real company, with real assets. Sadly, located in a pariah state.

Wonder if the connected parties who took the Invesco low-ball placing managed to completely sell out - suspect they did, going by the trades in subsequent months.

Endgame for Russia/Ukraine hard to predict, but difficult to see foreign shareholdings surviving - POLY, a FTSE100 constituent, down another 50% this morning, and that's a gold producer.

[george stobart] 28/2/2022 09:43

when is the official delisting date for this russian scam?

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 09:14

Off to golf, see you later, see if 30p, suspended or what anyones guess.

[adae] 28/2/2022 09:10

BBC reporting a 5km column of tanks & armoured personnel carriers heading towards Kiev. Putin doubling down.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 09:07

You can't have a brain.

[adrian noble] 28/2/2022 09:06

Monty can't even lie effectively.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 09:02

Kenny our Raven expert any thoughts, should they suspend the shares and pref until news known, or ride it out.

[cc2014] 28/2/2022 08:59

Russian base rate raised by 10.5% to 20%

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:57

Yes you are right.

[mwj1959] 28/2/2022 08:57

And if this is the situation for the Prefs the Ords are worthless.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:57

Lol the idiots out today.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:56

Lol get a life.