Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[adae] 03/3/2022 09:02

Can't see the name Kenny without hearing South Park's "Oh no, they killed ...".

Hope Russia/Putin haven't.

Ukraine situation not looking good.

[my retirement fund] 03/3/2022 09:00

Possibility of LSE suspending trading here. Already 28 Russian asset backed companies suspended by LSE now.

[spittingbarrel] 03/3/2022 08:55

I would leave Kenny alone, I think he had quite a sizeable investment here.

[homeboy] 03/3/2022 08:39

mugs still trying to be clever and time a buy here, fools, this is uninvestable

pole of the barge

where's kenny these days with his lengthy posts of preferential shares ranking orders of payments and how payments here are covered forever and ever, this only works in countries not run by criminal mafia gangs who loot national resources

[hpcg] 02/3/2022 19:10

Not obvious that the Russian army accepts the rights of the Ukrainians to stay alive. Anyone suggesting that this will get sorted in a short time and the distributions will recommence in 12 months is deluded.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 18:06

It may be Putin's agenda but it isn't that of the Russian people. Putin is increasingly isolated.

[spectoacc] 02/3/2022 17:44

Absolutely @hpcg.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 17:24

[Russian FM Lavrov] said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president.(BBC)

[hpcg] 02/3/2022 16:57

Putin's agenda in Ukraine is complete subjugation, and annihilation of the national identity. It's ideological, he won't stop. There is no negotiated settlement. West will sanction at least until our military spending has resulted in more hardware, and likely beyond. We are in for another cold war unless Putin is eliminated internally. I couldn't even begin to speculate on the balance of power between the Russian nationlists and the simply criminal. Whatever, it will not be a graceful handover of power.

The next time to invest in Russian property is the same phase of the cycle as when Raven Russia did originally.

[spectoacc] 02/3/2022 16:20

Not sure how more people don't see it. There is no negotiation or negotiated settlement or return to normal.

But yes, 1/4 of the world's wheat exports, meaning also 1/4 of the world's wheat imports.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 15:55

Not saying someone nice would replace him but merely that he is headed for the Hague and needs to be replaced. History suggests another opportunist will replace him. But Putin has to go, by whatever means.

[gfrae] 02/3/2022 15:36

Relying on someone nice replacing Putin after you have cut Russian's living standard by 25% would seem a longshot.

[gfrae] 02/3/2022 15:33

A further point what if the West loses the economic war ? What if printing money stops working ? If living standards start falling how stable are our democracies ?

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 15:30

The problem is that Ukraine IS the West and Putin sees that as a problem... for him, not for Russia. Best outcome is that Russia prevails (which is certain) and some kind of return to commercial normality as sanctions are lifted. Both sides need that. But the genie is out of the bottle... so a return to political normality is out of the question. For Russia, Putin's overthrow is essential.

[gfrae] 02/3/2022 15:15

The West should be encouraging the two parties to negotiate for the benefit of us all, as soon as possible before some terrible atrocity is committed after which there will be no possibility of talks. Trying to "win" this war at any cost may cost the lives of millions, and who knows then who will win...my bet is that it would be nobody in Europe, perhaps China or the US ?

[m_kerr] 02/3/2022 15:14

'Wheat - if Russia gains control of Ukraine, that's 1/4 of the world's wheat. The developed world may survive without, what of eg Lebanon, Middle East, the 3rd world?'

not true - the figure you quote is the amount exported, not total production. RUS / UKR account for around 14% of global wheat production.

[spectoacc] 02/3/2022 15:07

Lest we forget amongst all the propaganda from Russia about Ukrainian atrocities in the east, the West's war in Iraq etc, that Putin's Russia invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea, sent Russian soldiers into the Donbass, bombed hospitals and largely razed Aleppo to keep Al-Assad in power, destroyed Grozny, and seems unable to produce an international athlete who isn't on a doping programme, including giving 3 separate heart drugs to a 15 year old skater.

Locks up or murders opposition at home, produces billionaires at the expense of the population, assassinates abroad, whether through radiation poisoning or worse.

Rant over - we have to win. It's them or us.

Russia is uninvestable.

[irish_neris] 02/3/2022 14:35

@16881 The problem is if Putin gets overthrown who takes over? There's probably a few military guys who'd like the role or another putin wannabe hiding in the Duma waiting for his chance to push some Russian muscle global or there could be a power vacum and years on internal strife

[hpcg] 02/3/2022 14:15

The west needs nothing from Russia, and that includes oil. No one is taking Russian loadings; traders and refineries aren't buying and tanker owners aren't putting it in ships. When it comes to economic hardship versus security the latter wins every single time. Even with wheat, where the trade off is different, eating less would be beneficial for most in the developed world, and simply reducing waste would create food out of nowhere.

Potentially these have found a level as some people will punt on a tiny proportion of their portfolio. Not for me, there are so many more opportunities that don't have a total wipe out at one end of the return spectrum.

[m_kerr] 02/3/2022 13:32

reminder that they need to come up with approx £10-12m worth per half year in euros for the amortised euro denominated debt they have.

check note 32 of the last final year results. a 10% weakening of rouble leads to profit falling by £17.5m, so as it stands, the 30% fall in rouble will lead to profit falling by almost £53m. it gets a bit complicated with interest rates also changing, but it's a mess at the moment that shouldnt be touched with a bargepole.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:55

Money has to flow. Russia needs it to flow, as does the West. It will be resolved. This is not North Korea... it is a vibrant and rich economy. Putin is damaged goods and will be overthrown.

[cc2014] 02/3/2022 12:29

So, in summary Raven directors have no more visibility on the future than we do because they don't know if the money will be able to flow between countries and currencies.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:14

Agreed, this is a good statement. The bod wants to keep this a going concern, given the amount of skin they have in the game.